How is the N gauge market doing?

[Ted]

As someone who has been in the hobby for just 2 years, I find the lack of stock infuriating.

I have a long list of locos and wagons I want, but can't get them new. This list has only grown as I learn more.

I'm tired of taking pot shots at ebay, yes I've bagged a few bargains but some have been rougher... I also like minty new stuff because I can afford it.

Anyone got 120 HAA's they could spare?

This is very much a nostalgia project for me too. I'm in my late 30's, so BR blue and sectorisation is my bag.

[njee20]

My concern is more about the actual N gauge buyers themselves.

Newportnobby tells us that the forum membership is still growing. The pessimist in me says "yeah but I bet the average age is still rising too". (I stand to be corrected of course). Although us retired types have the means to afford more models we are not the future of the hobby.

How many forum members are in their 30s as compared to us lot in our 60/70s and what are they buying? A large part of our hobby is nostalgia and many will build a layout focused around memories of their youth.

If you are fifty years old you missed Neil Armstrong landing on the moon and you'll likely not buy a model of Apollo 11 to make. Neither would you remember trains being hauled through your local station by a snorting smoke billowing steam locomotive. You might remember fondly travelling on a first generation diesel rail car though and buy one of those. Like I keep saying to Mr. Metcalfe, we can't keep on building his (excellent) 1920s terraced houses! To Oxford die cast I say, enough of the Jowett Javelins already - where are the Sierras and Cavaliers?!

My feeling is that the N gauge market could do itself a favour by looking a bit more at the modern end?

Just my 2 cents worth (expecting to be shot down in flames).   

Alec.

I think growing forum membership is an unhelpful metric to track. Membership doesn't lapse, so of course the number will just grow and grow. How many are still active though? If you look through an old thread there are very few names I recognise.

I'm 33, and I buy modern stuff. I remember sectorisation, but the contemporary scene is what interests me most, as much as I like IC swallow HSTs and coal sector 60s! Overwhelmingly I've given most money to Revolution in the last few years, although there's still a smattering of Dapol and Farish stuff - they're clearly still doing stuff that appeals!

The age thing isn't an N gauge issue though, railway modelling has always been one for more 'mature' participant! However I don't think that really matters, there's a never ending supply of people getting older.

I'm fortunate to be one of those mentioned above who's been WFH since March. I'm saving £400 a month on train tickets, I'm not buying lunch, or coffee, or going out for drinks after work. It's a fortunate position to be in for sure, and I've made the most of it, even if I don't actually have a layout at the moment

[Papyrus]

I can't speak for the wider N gauge market, but on a personal level the market is doing well - I've spent more in the last 4 months than in the previous 4 years!

The pessimist in me says "yeah but I bet the average age is still rising too". (I stand to be corrected of course). Although us retired types have the means to afford more models we are not the future of the hobby.

The age profile of railway modelling has been a 'concern' for as long as I can remember. I don't see it as a problem. People in their 20s-40s often have families and are living in houses which are only just big enough and with little spare cash. Railway modelling has to wait until the youngsters have moved out and a spare room (and cash) becomes available. So the age profile will inevitably be skewed towards the late-middle-age/retired end. And when they hit the inevitable buffers there will be more people with time and money on their hands coming along to take their place.

The model railway market is changing, with more niche manufacturers going into crowdfunding and 3D printing with small production runs. If this means the established manufacturers have to adapt, so be it.

Cheers,

Chris

[red_death]

Farish and Dapol have done the most popular/widely used blue/grey Mk1 based DMUs ie 101, 108 and 121/122!

Talk to retailers and you can get conflicting messages ie that they never have enough N gauge stock, but conversely that the amounts they sell as a percentage of sales haven't really broken out beyond the 10-20% that has long been reported.

My view is that we really need to promote N gauge better, focus on the positives, be honest about the negatives and don't be afraid to say x/y/z is available or possible in N. Focusing on what isn't available or possible doesn't help promote a positive image of the scale.

It is infuriating when something isn't available that you'd like or you think would sell well (eg 2EPB -Farish!) but try to turn things into positives ie by making a reasoned case why you think a manufacturer will sell 1000+ for a loco or 3000+ for a wagon or see if other people are interested etc - you might just be surprised!  Equally be realistic if a Class 478 0-8-2T of which one was made for the Dunny-on-the-wold light railway then it is probably never going to be realistic for a RTR model - fortunately there are still plenty of things that are viable!

[ntpntpntp]

...  Bachmann taking over the UK rights to Thomas the Tank Engine... nobody can argue from a commercial point of view that that an N Gauge Thomas will sell many many more than any other British 0-6-0 tank engine.

I'd argue against that tbh. Unless the TTT range is specifically made as robust toys it will have the usual "not for bods under 14", and let's face it adult modellers will only buy one for a bit of fun and/or to maybe entertain kids for a moment at an exhibition.   I don't think the market is actually that large for it, maybe they hope for major sales in other parts of the world?

I presume it means Tomix have lost the licence for their N gauge TTT range, or are they now restricted to certain territories only (as they were originally)?  Did they ever actually have official licence to sell their TTT in the UK?  My examples were all sourced from ebay foreign parts back in the day.

[martyn]

I once read that many of us model what we remember as children. When I started 'serious' modelling, as opposed to playing with trains, in the early 70s then I think that may well have been true. Many of the layouts in magazines were 'GWR branch line set in the 30s'. Since then, many layouts seem to be of the BR transition, circa 1960ish. So perhaps the original statement has some truth.

I acknowledge that there are many who model an era much closer to the current date, but I'd be annoyed when having got together a collection of accurate models for a particular area that the TOC either changes or modifies its livery! Though, on reflection, C+C only lasted 1949-57, maroon 57-64; blue/grey lasted a bit longer in yearly terms before Executive and Swallow became part of the story.

I had also thought that Farish had said they would update the old Poole range; surely one of the last steam locos left would be the Crab? I'd have thought the LMS 4-4-0 was unlikely.

We're still missing lots of tank engine classes, and some early type 1 + 2 diesels.

As others have said, the 'batch' production methods now in force can be annoying. In Poole days, if you wanted something that was in the current catalogue, then usually it was also in the shops or could be ordered. Now if one wants a particular item in the catalogue, the wait could be months before its actually on sale.

But going back to Poole days; one new loco type and a couple of re-liveries was regarded as a good year for N gauge models!

Martyn

[Leon]

I've asked Admin if we can put 2 polls into one thread i.e. age groups and era modelled to see if we can get any info from that.

Mick, that's A VERY good idea!

As a child I never saw a Panier tank locomotive, but from movies and a variety of visual representations in books, magazines, etc. I became a dovotee. Likewise, the Flying Scotsman and the Royal Scot. From these popular locomotives, I acquired an appreciation of many others and discovered the appeal of wagons and coaches. In my early 20s, I was able to view some locomotives in station and to experience a few railway journeys via both steam and diesel. It is my belief that the love of steam locomotives and interest in early diesel and electric motive power will not diminish but will strengthen over the next couple of generations. The market exists, in my opinion. I'm not sure that market research does exist - at least to the extent of predicting trends.

I understand that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and beauty isn't the only attraction of railroads. To my eye there wasn't much of beauty in British locomotives (or other rolling stock) between the steam and the high-speed railroad eras. I'm a romantic, I know, but I think there will always be those who want to model beauty along with utility.

Leon

[Paddy]

Hopefully an N gauge Thomas will do wonders for British N gauge.  To sell to children it will need to be robust, affordable and offer good play value.  My fear is that Thomas simply becomes another collectors (no offence intended) item that commands high prices.

In addition, I would like Thomas to be a comprehensive range with appropriate track, control system, rolling stock etc.  I think it would be a great opportunity to reintroduce something like Farish's old Magnum layouts but with a Thomas theme.

As for the mainstream, most of the models produced now are wonderful.  Availability seems to be issue and this stops people building a model railway.  If you enter the hobby at the wrong time then you miss out on those coaches and/or wagons you wanted.

We live in a 24/7 world where many people expect instant gratification.  Telling someone the item they want is not available, may not be rerun for years if ever, is not really going to work.  You could have little Donald/Donaldina getting a train set for their 13th birthday only to find that the model they want will not be available until they are 16 or older!  By this time they have lost interest and moved on.

It is fine for someone like me who has been modelling in N gauge since 1996 as I have more than enough rolling stock.  I know it is expensive to keep stock on hand but I really believe that N gauge would benefit from having a readily available core set of models.  May be less new models and more rereleases is a good idea?

Kind regards

Paddy

[Newportnobby]

I've asked Admin if we can put 2 polls into one thread i.e. age groups and era modelled to see if we can get any info from that.

Mick, that's A VERY good idea!

Thanks, Leon, but polls are only as good as the numbers who vote.
As an example, the age poll attracted a mere 136 votes.
The era poll was even worse with only 92 votes and folks were given up to 5 votes so potentially only 19 people voted (18.4 actually but I wouldn't like to meet the 0.4 person on a dark night )
This is where celebration of forum numbers comes unstuck because, as @njee20 mentioned, it's always the same core who get involved.
Mind you, if everyone did get involved no one would cope!

[Leon]

Mick, you make some good points. There may be a way to encourage greater participation? I presume there are email addresses for all members? A special email might be sent to all members - short but simple - "N Scale needs your vote; please participate in a new poll to help us better understand our audience and their primary railway interests." The poll could include a little more than age of member and modelling era.

Leon

[red_death]

The NGS already has the data on age and model interest (era and geographic) from 5000+ members.

Data is good (for a manufacturer!) if you can get a decent size sample.

Cheers Mike

[Leon]

I'd say 5000+ is a good sample size. I'd like to see the numbers for age and era from this group, but I'd also like to see the answers to some other questions. There seem to be a relatively small number of enthusiastic collectors and modellers who drive the market. I'm simply wondering if the manufacturers are missing a potentially overwhelming segment of the marketplace that may have simpler, narrower interests. I haven't followed the "Thomas" market but it suggests other potentially untapped markets waiting to be exploited. If I wrote a popular series of books featuring a variety of technically accurate steam engines (i.e. The Railway Children) in the wonderful British countryside, perhaps that would create more demand. Is it time to think outside the box? Could a railway model manufacturer commission a writer to create such a series? I don't know a lot about the hobby or the supporting industry, but then most of the potential market doesn't, either! That part of the market might be more responsive if production was increased and prices lowered a bit to lure more people into the hobby.

Leon

[Chris Morris]

I'm not so sure about Thomas. Experience of my grandchildren says Thomas is popular between 18 months and four years but is looked upon as too childish by four year olds.

The batch production way of manufacturing is forced by simple economics. Setting up a run of making anything has significant costs attached to it so you have to make a reasonable sized batch in one go. On the other hand, nobody can afford to keep hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of stock in their warehouse for years in order to provide a continuous supply of a large range of items. This inevitably means that items will only be available for a shortish time (unless it is a poor seller). If something that you want hits the shops then you have to go for it. If you snooze you lose! In a way this makes getting your collection together quite good fun - watching out for model railway announcements and then pouncing when the right model comes along.

I think we all need to be ambassadors for N in whatever way we can. This can be achieved by showing our layouts on all scale Facebook groups and stating the size of any layouts being shown.  Also taking good N gauge layouts to exhibitions (remember them).

[njee20]

I think the membership of this group will be very similar to that of the NGS, but that's not much use when trying to encourage new people into the hobby. The whole point of a Thomas range is to encourage 'new blood', and for that it's irrelevant what the current demographic looks like.

I'd personally say, with the ubiquity of Thomas the Tank Engine, any 'rival' series, particularly if produced with the express intention of driving sales of N gauge models would be a total flop. I've never seen anything associated with the Railway Children, TTTE is a bit of juggernaut in this respect.

Also, whilst the 'Thomas' market is huge, I'm not sure there's much overlap between N gauge modelling and the key Thomas demographic, which is probably under 8 (ish, that's a bit arbitrary). I think the key markets for Thomas (and equivalents) remains the toy market - wooden trains and the like. I'm not sure I'd expect to see a manufacturer really growing their segment from investing in a Thomas line.

[Bigmac]

i returned to n gauge 2 years ago..after a 20 year hiatus.  most of my purchases have been " pre-owned " ( ugh--who invented that phrase ), from ebay and the facebook sales pages.  ive noticed recently bids on ebay have gone way beyond what i would consider paying.  a sign of a buoyant market ?---and facebook items for sale are also priced beyond what i will pay--and they sell.