price rises - how long can this be sustainable

[zwilnik]

Hi Roy,

Yes, not owning many steam locos myself, and having a 50% failure rate, I think I may have fallen into the trap of thinking a that a few complaints on here equate to a systemic problem that probably isn't the case.

Thanks for the sense of perspective.

As to boycotts, I was merely reflecting a suggestion earlier in the thread.  For me that would be a pyrrhic tactic -   I can't see how it will do anything other than force manufacturers away.

Cheers

Ben A.

Roy, I suspect even if the official failure rate is 3%, the actual "not satisfied" rate is a lot higher as we're talking modellers who are able to fettle and collectors who never run them. Not to mention a lot of people who just give up on trying to get a good one. The official failure rate would only count ones that QA catch before leaving the factory and ones that get returned from retailers.

There's certainly relatively high failure rates on some locos. Anything above 10% and you're into 'unreasonable' territory that a manufacturer of any other device would be panicking about.

Some of it though is down to plain and simple poor basic engineering design. I take my Dapol Hall as a classic example.

1: It's too light. Not just an issue for traction, it's so light vs the power of the engine that having the power transmitted from the tender to drive the loco wheels means the torque is enough to literally twist the loco off the track on curves (it's why they tend to cope with curves in one direction and not the other)

2: Some components really aren't suited to the job. The wires connecting the tender to the loco are too thick a gauge given how light the loco is. When it's cornering, they're thick enough to act like springs when compressed and don't allow the loco/tender combination to turn properly. At the same time, they're too thin, so they have an annoying habit of breaking. There are already much better solutions to the problem out there prior to the Dapol design. Such as making the connecting drawbar between loco and tender one of the power feeds and a single central wire or the Peco system which actually runs power either side of the drawbar, eliminating the wire entirely and even lets you detach the tender easily.

It does seem that most of the design effort was focussed on the detail and accuracy to prototype, sacrificing playability (and ease of construction) whenever they met. Thing is, unless you're only doing display models, playability and reliable running are critical in what is essentially a toy train.

[austinbob]

Steam models undoubtedly present more challenges in production terms, but treated with care they are in my experience as reliable as their Diesel counterparts. I have had just as many problems with diesels as steamers albeit relatively few with either. Maybe I am lucky, maybe a bit over protective in how I treat them, but whatever it is the fact remains I have few problems.

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. I have had a number of these, as have others on this forum. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

Most locos, if they work properly from the off, generally continue to work reliably as you have said. Even then I've had a couple of steamers with valve gear that fell off or apart. Again a fairly common problem which has been reported.

Hi Bob

I would be very surprised if the failure rate was close to 5% of each production run (which your 95% would reflect). I have heard an overall figure of 3% given, I think this was consistent across both manufacturers. Don't forget for every person who has a problem and complains (often very vocally) there are likely to be 20 or more satisfied customers who say nothing.

Regards

Roy

You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

As others have eluded to, quality ideally has to be designed in and not inspected out, but if the design is not too good then inspection and test have to be applied to the extent that customers don't get rubbish delivered to them.

I've posted many times about this topic of quality, probably cos part of my background is in quality management systems and techniques, so I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself.

[DELETED]

Here's my 2p worth (plus another 98p also).

Having re-entered the hobby after a 30'odd year break I chose n gauge due to the space constraints.  I was very impressed at the level of detail on the models some 7-8 years ago so was really quite happy with the scale.  I was able to find some reasonable deals, and as my preference changed quite quickly to Diesels and DCC I was extremely happy with the level of detail and doing my own split chassis conversions, and puying the 'odd DCC ready locomotive.

I have been watching prices climb for the past 2-3 years though and I have supported others who have not been happy.  I don't need ultra-fine detail (which always seems to get damaged or fall off), a reduction from 6 axle pick-ups to 4, hidden pick-up points, lights which sometimes stop working after 6 months.  Having built-up a semi-reliable fleet of 6 pin DCC ready locos I'm really shocked the standard is going to be replaced now.  I have always fully supported the argument that some of us want a return to some more basic, robust construction with a slightly lower price tag.  For instance I have a split chassis class 31 –and I'd like another class 31, but when looking at it 4 back feet I could never justify the cost of one of the new fine detailed DCC ready ones.

I probably haven't bought more than three new locomotives or items of rolling stock for 2 ½ years now.  I was out of work for 15 months, and now I'm back-in permanent work my salary is circa 35% of what it was, there is just no way I will now pay £100+ for a locomotive or £30+ for a coach or £20+ for a wagon.  I was in my local model shop "Sports and Model Shop" in Dingwall and picked up one of the very nice new inspection saloons in BR blue.  I had it in my hands three times I came to sense and put it back for a final time, as much as I liked it I just can't justify the cost.  Even when I was earing good money years ago I probably wouldn't have shelled out that much on one small coach on principle.

Compared to 5-6 years ago I find the second hand market is way bigger now, but prices have skyrocketed also.  Whereas I was buying second hand locomotives for £50 –they're £80 now and the likes of Hattons are advertising "Used" at 80-90% (sometimes with faults), right next to the new model.  Wagons and some coaches are similar also.  I for one have definitely curbed my spending on rolling stock, and my outlook on the hobby, not by choice but out of necessity.

I really admire the likes of the Kickstarter projects and the smaller manufacturers.  Unfortunately it's not something I would support if there isn't stock available already, and I can't afford the prices anyway! Cheap Peco unpainted wagon kits are my choice now, and I've bought a rake of Lima coaches which were great value if not looked at close-up.  But this limits my market.

I had a chance conversation this week with one of the guys at the plant I was working in and they're into R/C planes.  Been there, done it 10+ years ago.  But I remember the costs being quite high –we were both saying the fall in prices for ready to run models and everything else is just staggering now.  You can fly a sub £100 aeroplane now (incl. radio gear, ready to fly) whereas it would have cost £250 + radio + batteries + motor etc. when I was into them.

I have chucked the mag now but there was a one page article from a Mr Bardsley in one of the April mags.  I left that article annoyed thinking, while my brand new £100+ loco has broken after 10 mins run-in I should be thankful it happened to me as an isolated case and be damned sure I have never had it better and I frankly should have paid more for the privilege.  I do not agree with his comments at all and it was a very one-sided article but it seems to be the way things are advertised.

Rich

[Les1952]

Just a quick few points-

1.  In answer to the Dave Jones question- his OO Scale O2s are out there, and giving few problems on most people's track, though there are the usual niggles about the decoration, often contradicting each other (!).  The OO J94 is due in the next couple of months.  The Hattons one I ordered had its second livery sample passed last month.  Sales of this one pay tooling and production of the first N-gauge locos, the classes 17 and 23.  Dave is also hit by rising costs in China.  However my pre-order price for the OO limited edition J94s I have is still 25% less than the pre-order price  for the Bachmann USA Tank Model Rail are peddling.  Maybe a Class 17 by Christmas, maybe next year- it will depend on Dave's cash flow.

2.  The grass isn't greener in OO.  You just need to look at the threads on RMWeb about Bachmann, Hornby and Heljan to hear people moaning about price hikes and lack of quality.  Anyone for an A3 with bendy footplate?  How about a Beyer Garratt with a self-destructing motor?  Or an 0-6-2T or 2-4-2T that won't go through Peco points?  One from each manufacturer on the list- there are plenty of others to choose from.  As to price- £130 for an 0-6-0 diesel shunter, anyone?

3.  Quality comes at a price.  Just look at how much those nice bespoke indestructible CJM diesels are- or at the £200 to £300 you can pay for a Fleischmann or Minitrix loco now- and I've had lemons of both of those makes, likewise Kato. 

4.  Inflation is hitting Japan and Germany too.  To replace the trams on Furtwangen Ost I would now have to pay about £160 for a German one (was £85 when they were bought new not many years ago) or about £100 for a Japanese one (against £50 when mine were new 5-6 years ago).  Only the hand-made Linea8 cars are the same price at around £180 to £200.  The present fleet won't run all that much longer, maybe a year of exhibition use, so the layout is being retired from the circuit in September as I haven't a spare £1000 to spend on new trams.

All the very best
Les

[red_death]

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

<new post>

You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

But are you not at risk of setting false expectations? You want every model checking and the quality designed in and all at no extra price - that doesn't work in large scale manufacturing where high quality design often comes with a price so why should it work for extremely low volume manufacturing? New designs cost time and money - on low volumes it soon becomes more economical to work on a small failure rate rather than 100% perfection out of the box as the design and testing regime becomes expensive when split across the small production volume.

Cheers, Mike

[red_death]

We seem to be going through the same quarterly argument on prices vs detail levels vs reliability and I'm really not sure much has changed since the last time we did it!

Some people want greater reliability and fewer details, others want greater reliability and lower prices. I would hope everyone wants to expand the N gauge market (which we can argue is in the range of 20-30% of the whole UK modelling community).  There is no getting away from the fact that the NGS has seen reasonably large numbers of modellers joining over the past 5-10 years - some of them undoubtedly for access to the NGS RTR products, but others undoubtedly due to the increases in quality (details and running) that we have seen.  I've lost count of the number of times exhibiting that 4mm modellers have come over and said how impressed they are with the huge advances that N gauge has seen over the last decade.

The advances in details and running (and despite those who swear by the Poole mechs I'd still much rather have a decent Chinese mech in 99% of cases) have come at a cost in that assembly is a much greater part of the total cost than perhaps it used to be - for a significant period that was masked by the reduction in labour costs of moving to China.  Inevitably increases in Chinese labour costs have had a disproportionate increase in retail prices (they would be significantly higher again if assembly was done in the UK (assuming some of the skills were available for low volume manufacturers)).

We can try and kid ourselves that there is a magic bullet but I've yet to see it (and that isn't from wont of trying!).  I'd love to find a way to produce the models people want in small volumes, at low costs, with great detail and immaculate reliability - answers on a postcard!

Cheers, Mike

[railsquid]

4.  Inflation is hitting Japan and Germany too.  To replace the trams on Furtwangen Ost I would now have to pay about £160 for a German one (was £85 when they were bought new not many years ago) or about £100 for a Japanese one (against £50 when mine were new 5-6 years ago). 

Out of curiosity which Japanese tram is costing you £100? 

There is some inflationary pressure here, in particular the cheap Tomytec range of buildings/accessories and unmotorised trains has seen a hike of 20 ~ 30% in the last few months, and MicroAce seem to have jumped the shark and pushed prices up towards British levels, but not seeing any particular changes in the Kato and Tomix pricing yet.

[JasonBz]

I am never really sure why price matters that much...you spend what you spend.

If I can afford £10 a week for a wagon, it is the same amount spent whether I buy one week or one a month, isn't it?


I know some people want everything, or at least most of it- but it dont work like that.

[NinOz]

We seem to be going through the same quarterly argument on prices vs detail levels vs reliability and I'm really not sure much has changed since the last time we did it!

And so productive.

Perhaps we just need a list of prior posts to which people could post a link to re-re-restate their position or article of faith.  Rather like the joke about the comedians convention.

[kirky]

I think I would far rather see high prices from Farish, than no Farish at all. Some people will recall maybe 12 years ago or so, before Farish was taken over by Bachmann, second hand prices on ebay went through the roof. A can rmember paying a considerably greater than RRP for a 4MT. It was a dog.

Kirky

[Agrippa]

How long can this topic be sustainable?

[austinbob]

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

<new post>

You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

But are you not at risk of setting false expectations? You want every model checking and the quality designed in and all at no extra price - that doesn't work in large scale manufacturing where high quality design often comes with a price so why should it work for extremely low volume manufacturing? New designs cost time and money - on low volumes it soon becomes more economical to work on a small failure rate rather than 100% perfection out of the box as the design and testing regime becomes expensive when split across the small production volume.

Cheers, Mike

Hi Mike
I didn't say I was expecting 100% checks, just a big enough statistical sample check to ensure that the failure rate is below a published level.
In terms of design costs, I have worked in many areas where improved design has been undertaken. Yes, there are addtional costs to this but the costs are generally recovered by savings in reduced rework of faulty production and reduced costs of warranty returns.
The customer is then much happier as they have much increased confidence that the product will work (fit for purpose) and are more likely to make more purchases in the future.
In terms of failure rates the often quoted 5% is far to high in my opinion. 5% failures, in a 5000 production run say, means there are going to be 250 unhappy customers. That doesn't seem acceptable to me.

I know this thread is about increasing prices and improving design is perceived as increasing cost/price but it  isn't necessarily the case because of all the other savings made.

[zwilnik]

One thing that seems to be missing from the N gauge market is marketing. All the advertising and products appear to be targeted inwards at existing railway modellers and while N gauge gaining from OO is a good thing, they're not new players, they're coming from another shrinking user base.

Hornby's been fairly sensible and managed to get the Thomas license back, which is ideal for OO and while he's not as much of a bonus for N Gauge because it's a harder sell size-wise for kids (or rather, parents concerned their kids will break them), Thomas in N is popular, just rare. Whoever's at Bachmann or Dapol and thinking long term, do a deal with Tomix and the Thomas license holders and get their models officially in the UK to get some new players in. Longer term, developing a non Thomas brand that appeals to the younger audience might not be a bad plan too.

Likewise, Farish (and Dapol) need train sets. Proper ones with budget engines and stock that can tempt people in. Even if they're battery powered! (My first train set was a battery powered Hornby one. The loco didn't get used much once I got a 'proper' one but the trucks all carried on for years )

[zwilnik]

How long can this topic be sustainable?

Until we run out of N Gauge manufacturers and suppliers if it's an indicator that customers are generally unhappy with things

[trkilliman]

Yes, this has been discussed a few times previously but raises it's head again.

There will be many N gauge modellers who have never heard of this forum, or choose not to join it. Actions speak louder than words, so the levels of new sales will be a pretty good indicator of how potential buyers have responded to the price increases. Whilst there appears to be two main points of view on price hikes, many may/will prefer not to air their views.

The previous poster who spoke about losing his job was interesting. He gained a new job after 15 months, but earning around a third less than previously. I believe there are a lot of people in a similar situation, or can only find part-time employment.
11,000 jobs could potentially go with the loss of BHS. Many may be jobs filled by ladies, whose income is so often essential to pay the bills in modern day Britain. The SWMBO scenario is banded about on here, but can become a true force to deal with if money coming into the household is severely hit.
Posters have said second hand prices have risen in recent times...supply and demand as a result of people not prepared or able to pay the prices asked for brand new items?

Time will tell if across the board people have decided to curtail/limit their purchases in the light of price hikes.