Quote from: Ben A on July 22, 2014, 09:24:46 AMI know when we attend shows with our club layout we get a lot of interest from members of the general public - especially wives/girlfriends/mums and younger children - and lots of surprise that N even exists.

I know the lack of general availability has frustrated my wife and daughters in the past.  Many a time they have gone shopping and want to buy "Daddy" something for his "train set" only to find that it is all too big!

Quote from: Ben A on July 22, 2014, 09:24:46 AMBachmann themselves accept that the Hornby brand is incredibly strong and for the time being will almost inevitably be the route into model railways for 99% of people.

Probably the single biggest help to British N gauge would be Hornby entering the market in a big way.  I suppose this will depend on how well the Brighton Belle does and the progress Hornby makes in sorting out its business problems.

Quote from: Ben A on July 22, 2014, 09:24:46 AMComments made about cost, and rising prices, are valid but I wonder whether - perhaps perversely - the relatively  low "toy train" prices of British model railway items have tended to make them "seem" less grown up.  On the continent, where prices have historically been significantly higher, model railways are a respected adult pastime.

This is a double edged sword Ben.  By having high prices you certainly move away from the "toy train" market in to "executive toys".  However, you then severely restrict the size of your market to those people with "executive" disposable incomes.  Is there sufficient people like this in the UK to sustain companies like Bachmann, Dapol etc.?  It is certainly a high risk strategy but then again we are sort of heading that way by default.

Paddy

Sadly, cost is likely to be a factor least under Bachmann's control. Commodity prices are going up driving up the cost of raw materials. Wage increases in China drive up production costs and high fuel costs make getting the products to the UK more expensive too.

Obviously lower prices will boost sales, particularly the impulse buy segment. But that is not going to help Bachmann if they make little or no profit on those sales. They are a company and need to make a profit to remain in business. Capitalism has a long (if chequered) history and the laws of supply and demand are probably better studied than the laws of physics. I am sure the price rises are not something Bachmann have done lightly and are acutely aware that overall volumes are likely to fall as a result. But that will affect their 00 range too so in a sense, it will not unduly penalise N gauge.

Unless someone is able to outsource to an even lower cost country or invents new manufacturing technique that radically cuts costs, prices are only going to move in one direction.

Another option that Bachmann could consider is reintroducing the Graham Farish Magnum layouts like GF of old.  This would allow them to offer a simpler entry point in to the N gauge market whilst also showcasing their rolling stock and Scenecraft buildings.

People who bought the Magnum layout would ideally then go on to purchase controller(s), track, locos, rolling stock, decoders and a significant number of buildings/scenery items like people.  There was a very nice layout in GF's 2013 catalogue which would make a good starting point.

This is nothing new as other companies have been doing similar things for decades.  Depending on how you packaged this idea it could certainly take you up market as well.

Just an idea...

Paddy

Quote from: Karhedron on July 22, 2014, 10:02:09 AMUnless someone is able to outsource to an even lower cost country or invents new manufacturing technique that radically cuts costs, prices are only going to move in one direction.

This may prove to be the only viable option in the long run.  I suspect it will not be model railways that are the driver here but rising costs in other markets.  The large multi-nationals will move production to where they can achieve the best quality and margins and to date this has mainly been China for mass production.  I find it hard to believe that other countries are not monitoring China's rising costs and seeing opportunities for them in the years ahead to under cut China.  This will no doubt take years and China may respond aggressively e.g. lifting the 1 child law so that they grow their pool of labour.

Alternatively, it may be technology like advanced 3D printing that is able to remove/reduce the human element to a point where costs can be better controlled.

Whether all of this will happen quickly enough to benefit British N gauge and model railways in general only time will tell.  I am sure NASA have some very bright people working on the problem! 

Paddy

I think Farish et al could boost sales without big investment.

On several occasions in the last two years I've had money burning in my pocket and just can't source what I want, other than from auction sites.

It seems to me that there a number of utility vehicles, which modellers will always want and which just are not available. A great example at the moment is BR Bauxite 20T brake vans. Until recently I couldn't get my hands on MK1 SKs or BSKs in Maroon.

If Bachmann (and for that matter Dapol)  were to re-run some of their standards then I think they would get some relatively cheap incremental sales, after all when we are paying inflated prices for models from eBay the manufacturers see zero income.

Cheers
Dave

Pardon the interruption to the interesting debate regarding costs, etc., but the new catalogue is listing Birdcage Stock set - 374-911 in olive green.

The cost seems pretty steep but I was wondering if I could justify them if it would be right to put those behind my lovely, and still yet to be run, UM T9.

Dave G

Quote from: daveg on July 22, 2014, 10:25:46 AM
Pardon the interruption to the interesting debate regarding costs, etc., but the new catalogue is listing Birdcage Stock set - 374-911 in olive green.

The cost seems pretty steep but I was wondering if I could justify them if it would be right to put those behind my lovely, and still yet to be run, UM T9.

The birdcage stock was ex-SECR (basically the eastern side of what became the Southern) whereas T9s were ex-LSWR (the western portion). There may have been occurrences of a T9 hauling birdcage stock but I don't think it was very common.

A much better match would be the forthcoming Dapol Maunsell coaches. They are also selling them in complete sets and a 4-coach set in Maunsell olive can be had for £72.

http://www.ehattons.com/74763/Dapol_2P_012_251_Maunsell_Set_450_Lined_Green_BR_3rd_brake_4069_composites_5161_5162_and_3rd_bra/StockDetail.aspx

I do not know how much the 3-coach birdcage sets will retail for but the forthcoming Hawksworth coaches are listed at £26 each so a 3-coach set may well cost more than the 4-coach set from Dapol.

Thanks Karhedron.

I have the Maunsell set on pre-order so you've saved me the cash to spend on something else!

Dave G

Quote from: Roy L S on July 22, 2014, 07:48:46 AM
With respect did not say that only transition models sell, I said it is where the biggest market is. This is based on what I know from talking to model shop proprietors and indeed from the NGS's own published data and other sources, as far as I am aware it is not questioned? I have no doubt BR blue pre/post TOPS will also feature and indeed there is obviously a market for MI but how big and how much investment should be targeted at which is the question? 

Apologies, I didn't mean to be so absolute in what you said.  My point was that from the NGS data I don't think it is at clear cut that transition era is more popular ie that although some transition era stuff has sold well, others haven't sold so well - the data shows that it is very model and livery specific. For example the inspection saloon has sold very well in maroon and blue-grey. The Snowploughs sold well in the 70/80s variants, but not so well in earlier variants.

Quote from: Roy L S on July 22, 2014, 07:48:46 AMThe NGS has been very clever in it's choice of RTR items and as you say they have been selected to span a wide timeframe but would any of those products remained viable without sales of the liveries covering the steam/diesel transition period?

Take a look at diesel locos showing as available at Barwell, Blue 20s no green, blue 24s no green, blue and blue-grey DMUs no green. All are delivered in the same batch sizes...

Would the models have been viable without transition era sales - probably not, but equally they wouldn't have been viable without BR blue sales!

I'm not aware that any liveries sold out on release, though a few have sold out subsequently.

Batch sizes may be the same but number of variants isn't always the same eg the 20s had 2 versions in BR blue produced, similarly the 101s have had various "blue" liveries - blue, blue-grey, express parcels. I don't think that is a good metric!

Quote from: Roy L S on July 22, 2014, 07:48:46 AMI am unsurprised that there is disappointment at Barwell that the Desiro has not sold well.

Despite it being a great model (and perfect for my interests), I still think it was an incredibly strange choice of EMU to pick, particularly given they didn't produce the (almost) identical 450. Given they had CAD from the 150 why not pick one of the Mk3 based units which are much more wide spread and long lived.

Cheers, Mike

Quote from: red_death on July 22, 2014, 12:02:33 PM
Despite it being a great model (and perfect for my interests), I still think it was an incredibly strange choice of EMU to pick, particularly given they didn't produce the (almost) identical 450. Given they had CAD from the 150 why not pick one of the Mk3 based units which are much more wide spread and long lived.

I agree. The 319 would be a smart starting point for an EMU as it suits both OHEL and 3rd rail modellers. Also they are quite widely travelled with some having gone up the WCML as far as Rugby while others have branched out on the Southern beyond just Thameslink routes. This is likely to increase as new units are delivered to Thameslink as the 319s have been mooted for cascading to the GWML, the welsh valleys or further north.

Once you have the Mk3 chassis and basic bodyshell, slides for the cab and window arrangement would allow the range of units from 317-456 to be produced. The trouble is that that might be quite a long term plan and Farish probably need each release to pay for itself individually.

Ah well. Bob at N-Train is working on a 319 to follow up the 313 and I believe he is working with other Mk3 stock in mind so we may get a full Mk3 family albeit in kit form rather than RTR.

Before N Gauge gets more popular there are two or three things that need overcoming:

Reliability - all too often we hear of models that don't work new from the box. Split gears still occur. Haullage power is sometimes restricted. Valve gear and coupling rods fall off. Similar issues occur in other scales of course!

Exhibition layouts - like it or not, N Gauge layouts have a reputation for being un-realistic, tail-chasing train sets. We know decent N Gauge layouts exist and there are plenty of poor 4mm and 7mm our there. Unfortunately the best N Gauge ones are not sticking in peoples mind the same way the likes of Mostyn, Bath Green Park, Dewsbury Midland and Wibdenshaw do.

Size - it is a problem! N Gauge is seen as being fiddly and difficult to work in. Modellers don't see that the smallest part you'll fit to a 4mm scale kit is no different to the smallest part you'll fit to a 2mm scale kit. IMO it's not helped by at least one of the main magazine editors having a bit of a bias against N Gauge.

Improve the layouts and more people will be tempted to give N Gauge a go as they'll see it can be more than a toy. Give those new N Gauge modellers reliable products and they'll soon learn that size isn't an issue!


Happy modelling.

Steven B.

I think that cost plays a large part in popularity of N gauge. Apparently it costs as much to make an
N gauge item as the equivalent OO version. Presumably the planning , die making and labour costs
are the same and economies of scale come into play, but the raw material, packaging and shipping
costs should be about a quarter of the OO version.

The Farish Class 08  shunter costs the same as the Bachmann 00 version. However if you go into
a car showroom you don't expect to pay the same for a Fiesta as a Mondeo.

Quote from: Agrippa on July 22, 2014, 01:25:04 PM
but the raw material, packaging and shipping costs should be about a quarter of the OO version.

However those costs only make up a small proportion of the overall costs. Also, production runs in N gauge are usually smaller meaning that the R&D and tooling costs need to be spread over a smaller number of models.

As an accountant dealing in marginal costing now and then I appreciate economies
of scale are an important factor, but to the average Joe starting in modelling going
into a shop and seeing a tiny loco or train set priced the same as a much larger one
he'll buy the big one, as he's not interested in far-off factories or R & D costs.

An alternative tack would be for a larger version of the Union Mills type of
operation albeit with less super - detailing and choice of liveries.

Quote from: red_death on July 22, 2014, 12:02:33 PM

Apologies, I didn't mean to be so absolute in what you said.  My point was that from the NGS data I don't think it is at clear cut that transition era is more popular ie that although some transition era stuff has sold well, others haven't sold so well - the data shows that it is very model and livery specific. For example the inspection saloon has sold very well in maroon and blue-grey. The Snowploughs sold well in the 70/80s variants, but not so well in earlier variants.

Batch sizes may be the same but number of variants isn't always the same eg the 20s had 2 versions in BR blue produced, similarly the 101s have had various "blue" liveries - blue, blue-grey, express parcels. I don't think that is a good metric!

Hi Mike

Pretty recent NGS polls shared with members show that it looks pretty clear-cut that steam/diesel transition is the dominant part of the Market. Of course nobody could possibly challenge that there will always then be individual models that defy that general principle.

I was given to understand that maroon (with maroon ends) inspection saloons sold out before release and were by far the most popular. Is this not the case? Were maroon Stove R's (sold initially in more than one running number - was it three?) not the most popular and quick selling liveries (quirky Pullman one aside perhaps?).

The point I was making about diesels is that single runs of 1008 green ones sold out long ago, the batches of models that stick on the shelves of Barwell do not tend to be green diesels but blue and later. If one wants to be really pedantic there were two BR green Class 24 variants, the plain green one sold fastest and is now comparatively hard to get hold of, two tone green with yellow panel second, and now all that is left at Barwell is the BR blue ones. Indeed maybe there is even a case for releasing more individual green livery variants?

I am not suggesting that there is not a healthy market elsewhere, indeed some locos like the 37 and 47 carried a huge variety of liveries forward from their initial BR green and continue in modern mainline operation today, they are probably amongst the most viable and lucrative Farish locos, but again it's BR green ones have generally sold out first!

Regards

Roy