Quote from: Ben A on July 21, 2014, 09:16:16 PM
Hi Steve
What they said was that in the last few years Farish sales climbed noticeably from 15% of Bachmann's business to approaching 20%, but then that climb seems to have petered out and that's where sales have remained.

Thanks Ben, I was just interested in exactly where N had got to.  I don't doubt Bachmann would like to see sales rise further, as would we all, but personally I'm encouraged that 20% has been reached with the N gauge range being so much smaller than the OO equivalent 

But as I'm keen on seeing more EMUs/DMUs it sounds like I'm an endangered species :'(

Quote from: Ben A on July 21, 2014, 09:16:16 PM

Hi Steve

What they said was that in the last few years Farish sales climbed noticeably from 15% of Bachmann's business to approaching 20%, but then that climb seems to have petered out and that's where sales have remained.

I get the impression that they are a little perplexed that some very good quality models - esp the EMUs such as the Desiro and 4-CEP - still have not sold out from the warehouse and there is a bit of headscratching going on about what can be done to entice more into N and get the growth resuming.

There may be a role for the NGS in this, and we try to be supportive of all manufacturers, but I'd be very interested in ideas for growing the scale that do not involve simply wishlisting additional or different models...

cheers

Ben A.
(NGS VP)

Hi Ben

Many thanks for this.

It seems vital to me to target those eras where the majority of spend is. Without wishing to start any kind of controversy or offend any specific modelling group, that is undoubtedly steam/diesel transition. Models from that era sell and sell well, and indeed this is supported by the success of the NGS commissions covering that very period and the comparative lack of support for anything modern. It is further supported by availability in shops where generally supplies of the more modern models remain plentiful and the transition models generally sell out far more quickly.

While I am not for a second suggesting that the transition era alone should be supplied, it does seem pretty clear that there is insufficient market to support say costly 4 car EMUs with such limited potential geographical and historically fine model though the Desiro is. This should not really be a surprise even based on their own previous observations about slow sales of electrics and ditto the third rail EMU.

What would be more revealing would be to see how sales split amongst the eras.

Regards

Roy

Hello all,

I wonder if the manufacturers ever feel that no matter how many items they produce, it never seems to be enough? 

Our club layout Horseley Fields was largely designed around the anticipated arrival of the Farish 350 in LM livery, as it depicts a suburban line in the West Midlands.  Yes, it would be nice to run a 323 or a Pendolino but we make do with a 90 + Pretendolino rake and various LM 153s and 170s.   These are, in a way, "placeholders" (with thanks to S Jones) and if the correct stock becomes available, or we get around to scratchbuilding it, then we will replace them.

So, for example, with the 4-Bep previously mentioned would it be possible to buy a substitute Mk1 buffet car and drop it in to create an "impression" of a 4-Bep, then ensuing sales of the Cep would perhaps encourage production of a proper Bep?

What thoughts are there beyond suggesting additional models?  What might be holding those outside N from taking the plunge??

cheers

Ben A.

Given that Bachmann haven't done a 4-BEP in 00, even though they've done the MLV and 2-EPB, I don't think there's much chance of it in N.

Quote from: Ben A on July 21, 2014, 11:13:09 PM

So, for example, with the 4-Bep previously mentioned would it be possible to buy a substitute Mk1 buffet car and drop it in to create an "impression" of a 4-Bep, then ensuing sales of the Cep would perhaps encourage production of a proper Bep?

I have a green RMB which I have inserted into my Green SYP set a couple of times but it doesn't look right. What I would really need is a green RU (the layout is a lot closer to the BEP Buffet) but that is impossible as the SR didn't have any...

Quote from: Karhedron on July 21, 2014, 10:21:29 PM

But modellers who would want a 4-CEP would also want the other units you would need to represent the Eastern section of the Southern Region.

I have 4CEPs and want the other units so I can represent the Central Division of the Southern Region - but I know I am fighting a raging tide there...

Quote from: Ben A on July 21, 2014, 11:13:09 PM

What thoughts are there beyond suggesting additional models?  What might be holding those outside N from taking the plunge??

Available space: Houses nowadays are built smaller than in the past, and every square inch is allocated to something or other. Kids are not leaving home and releasing 'spare' bedrooms because they are saving to get/can't save enough to get on the housing ladder themselves. This means that the only alternatives are the garage or the shed in the garden, both which will need some sort of work done to protect the content from extremes of weather/temperature/humidity. Which leads me on to...

Available finance: There is a lot less 'spare' cash lying around for hobbies. And I've mentioned before the increases in the cost of models themselves are putting people off spending money.

Available time: There are lots more activities about which give people the instant 'buzz' of accomplishment in their 'down time' from work - dare I also mention the computing revolution and the games, simulators and other activities thereon.

Image: Not exclusive to Railway Modelling, but the traditional hobbies and activities have an image of 'old people' about them which the younger set which we want to encourage to take part in are loath to take up because of the hit it will take on their kudos with their peers. There are several clubs and organisations I am involved with locally which are crying out for younger blood to take part in as the existing members fall by the wayside due to ill-health and eventually mortality; these include Twinning Association, Civic Society, and even Local Football Club.

I'm sure there are others, but this is a start. Must get to bed before the pills kick in... zzzzzzzzzz

Quote from: Roy L S on July 21, 2014, 10:51:19 PM
It seems vital to me to target those eras where the majority of spend is. Without wishing to start any kind of controversy or offend any specific modelling group, that is undoubtedly steam/diesel transition. Models from that era sell and sell well, and indeed this is supported by the success of the NGS commissions covering that very period and the comparative lack of support for anything modern. It is further supported by availability in shops where generally supplies of the more modern models remain plentiful and the transition models generally sell out far more quickly.

I think we should put to bed this myth that only transition era models sell well as that certainly is NOT bourne out by the NGS RTR sales.  Some transition era items have sold well (some not so well), but equally so have *some* BR blue and privatisation models. Where models have done well is if they span a long period. So the picture is actually more complex. 

I have some data (from NGS kit sales) which might be possible to do some analysis on changes in purchasers interests over time eg a possible hypothesis is that we should be starting to see a rise in sales of BR blue and sectorisation items over time.

It still amazes me that no one is prepared to take the bull by the horns for multiple units.  For D&E models there aren't many loco classes to be done (21/29, 85 and 92 plus early AC and various one-offs) so the major omission is units.  Given that so many of the units are families of classes with a bit of clever design at the outset you can save a lot in R&D by focussing on the most popular/widespread units of each class.

Cheers, Mike

(NGS Product Development Officer)

As a returning modeller, but in N this time it is an interesting market which this topic illustrates. As a novice trying to create a scene based upon a transition era as against BR blue which was current last time around. Having gone DCC my buying thoughts have changed somewhat.

Whilst the earlier locos that I bought were cheaper the running and DCC readiness of the new models has swayed my buying. Green DMUs which are hard to find now as they have come and gone, make up a chunk of my stock. As much as a Class 40 is just the loco for my era, I am not interested in the many bargains out there,

I know all about companies being competitors, but this lack of tie in is not helping. All that money spent on R&D only to be canned when word gets out that the competitor is thinking about it. If the companies got together admittedly through a body like the NGS I think we could be very poor

Quote from: talisman56 on July 22, 2014, 03:59:34 AM

Quote from: Ben A on July 21, 2014, 11:13:09 PM

What thoughts are there beyond suggesting additional models?  What might be holding those outside N from taking the plunge??

Available space:.

Available finance:

Available time:

Image:

Those are all possible reasons why people don't take up the hobby but they don't answer the more important question which is why the majority still choose 00 over N...

In fact the space issue should favour the smaller scale...

Quote from: red_death on July 22, 2014, 05:41:33 AM
I think we should put to bed this myth that only transition era models sell well as that certainly is NOT boune out by the NGS RTR sales.  Some transition era items have sold well (some not so well), but equally so have *some* BR blue and privatisation models. Where models have done well is if they span a long period. So the picture is actually more complex. 

I have some data (from NGS kit sales) which might be possible to do some analysis on changes in purchasers interests over time eg a possible hypothesis is that we should be starting to see a rise in sales of BR blue and sectorisation items over time.

It still amazes me that no one is prepared to take the bull by the horns for multiple units.  For D&E models there aren't many loco classes to be done (21/29, 85 and 92 plus early AC and various one-offs) so the major omission is units.  Given that so many of the units are families of classes with a bit of clever design at the outset you can save a lot in R&D by focussing on the most popular/widespread units of each class.

Cheers, Mike

(NGS Product Development Officer)

Hi Mike

With respect did not say that only transition models sell, I said it is where the biggest market is. This is based on what I know from talking to model shop proprietors and indeed from the NGS's own published data and other sources, as far as I am aware it is not questioned? I have no doubt BR blue pre/post TOPS will also feature and indeed there is obviously a market for MI but how big and how much investment should be targeted at which is the question? 

The NGS has been very clever in it's choice of RTR items and as you say they have been selected to span a wide timeframe but would any of those products remained viable without sales of the liveries covering the steam/diesel transition period? Which liveries were sold out on release? Where further runs have been commissioned which liveries have these been? The prospect of a RTR item of an existing prototype in a MI livery was canvassed but as I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong and it is going ahead) there were insufficient expressions of interest to make it viable? Take a look at diesel locos showing as available at Barwell, Blue 20s no green, blue 24s no green, blue and blue-grey DMUs no green. All are delivered in the same batch sizes...

I am unsurprised that there is disappointment at Barwell that the Desiro has not sold well. The model is top notch and doubtless the cost of tooling a 4 car EMU was significant. What I am saying is that based on their own prior comments concerning AC electric sales perhaps they shouldn't have been surprised!

Clearly (and for balance) there are steam locos that have also not done well, particularly the WD Austerity which could until recently be had from Hattons for £79, and to be honest that one has me scratching my head more!

Finally, on the subject of DMUS of 3 and 4 cars, I think Bachmann have ruled these out on grounds of cost meaning to high a retail price. I am sure clever tooling could mitigate some of this as you suggest as indeed it doubtless could assembly costs, but in the current market I cannot see them taking the risk.

Regards

Roy

P.S. Although I model steam/diesel I say none of the above based on self interest, I am thinking of what will sustain and grow our hobby. In point of fact I grew up in the blue-diesel era and have many fond memories of that time.

Just some more thoughts on OO vs N...

1. Does N gauge have much visibility outside modeling circles?  The "high street" is dominated by OO through Hornby brand awareness.  You do not get to see GF train sets in Argos for example.

2. A lot of the large club layouts are in OO.  One would assume this contributes to additional sales of OO products.

3. Garden railways is another channel which is very limited in the N gauge market.

4. Is there much of a market for British N Gauge outside the UK?  Again one gets the impression that many ex-pat modellers use OO.

5. Is there much of a collector market for N gauge?

6. Lack of nostalgia for N gauge.  A lot of modellers grew up with OO and have fond memories.  Those of us who started with N gauge probably have less positive remeninces of generic models with low levels of detail and poor running qualities.  So returning modellers may not even bother to check out modern N gauge.

7. Cost.  Modelling is becoming expensive in any scale.  I know there have been many discussions about relative price and value but the headline numbers we have now cannot help.  I remember a quote from Richard Lines when he was talking about Triang's challenges with TT.  Richard said that people expected to pay less for the "little one" even though it cost the same to make as OO.  This coupled with more steep price rises over the coming years will not help any of the scales I suspect.

8. Disposable income.  If my previous point about N gauge modellers being short of space (even more so than other scales) then this could indicate lower levels of disposable income.  People may be short of space because they are retired and on a fixed income.  They may be short of space because they have their family/children at home which impacts on disposable income.  They may simply be short of space because they cannot afford anything more so by definition they have limited spending power.

I realise the above is just a list of possible issues and no solutions.  Just thinking out loud.

Paddy

Hi

I, like most people I would presume have stopped buying things because I like them and have gone back to only buying what I require for my layout.

I have also started building some of the kits I have had stashed for years mainly because I get enjoyment from kit building and I've already spent the money on them. I personally won't be buying a single Bachmann Covhop as I built my rake years ago from the Stephen Harris kit.

Cheers

Paul

Hello all,

Some very good points are being made, and interesting observations too.  I should also point out that I made a slight mistake in my earlier post, sales of N are around 30% of OO, not 20%, but since the development/tooling/production costs are broadly similar for both scales Bachmann remain very keen to grow the market.

I think the fundamental issue is the seeming lack of "visibility" of N gauge - as has been said, a first train-set is far far more likely to be OO and this will then set in train (groan!) an immediate preference and committment to the larger scale.  I suspect it takes quite a lot to sell up a significant amount of stock in order to change scales.  And while the magazines feature N gauge layouts they are not nearly as common as OO/EM/P4.

I know when we attend shows with our club layout we get a lot of interest from members of the general public - especially wives/girlfriends/mums and younger children - and lots of surprise that N even exists.

Bachmann themselves accept that the Hornby brand is incredibly strong and for the time being will almost inevitably be the route into model railways for 99% of people.

Comments made about cost, and rising prices, are valid but I wonder whether - perhaps perversely - the relatively  low "toy train" prices of British model railway items have tended to make them "seem" less grown up.  On the continent, where prices have historically been significantly higher, model railways are a respected adult pastime.

Markets where N seems to do especially well are North America and Japan; I don't know much about the Japanese market but I read Model Railroader from time to time and am often struck by the number of *large* N gauge layouts it features.  These really are aspirational and in a slightly paradoxical way N almost works better in a large space than a small space as the trains really do seem to be part of a far greater whole.

Please keep the ideas and thoughts coming.

cheers

Ben A.

I agree Ben some great comments have been made.

I do think that Farish products rising by the level they have and the warning of further increases can only be counter productive to their desire to grow the N gauge market. I echo what several people have said that they will now be very selective in any new farish products.
Most of us will have kits/projects, possibly stalled, squirreled away that may become attractive as the money has already been spent.

Basically they will not be getting as much of my money from now on. Scoring own goals springs to mind.

I sense that the 2nd hand market has been seen by a couple of the major "box shifters" as a growing market. From this I conclude that they imagine sales of new stuff could diminish, so are looking at other avenues of sales.

Quote from: Ben A on July 22, 2014, 09:24:46 AM
Markets where N seems to do especially well are North America and Japan; I don't know much about the Japanese market but I read Model Railroader from time to time and am often struck by the number of *large* N gauge layouts it features.  These really are aspirational and in a slightly paradoxical way N almost works better in a large space than a small space as the trains really do seem to be part of a far greater whole.

The N gauge markets in Japan and US are slightly different. In the US, N gauge is popular for "big picture" modelling allowing miles of track rolling through the lanscape. Big locos and long rakes (particularly freight) are signature items for this sort of layout.

Japan on the other hand is much closer to the UK market in that houses tend towards the diminutive meaning larger scales just won't fit. The Japanese market is supported by large numbers of EMUs allowing modellers to represent busy modern scenes as well as iconic units such as "bullet" trains.

Growing the scale is one thing, addressing the poor sales of specific items is slightly different (although a net increase in N gauge modellers would on average benefit sales in all sectors).

For me, the key to growing the market is address sectors. Individual items will sell well if they are iconic locos like Tornado or Flying Scotsman. For less "rule #1" trains, you need to consider them in the context of what is available to run with them.

To look specifically at EMUs, consider Hornby's 2-BIL. This item was well received (in spite of the "design-clever" features) and has sold well. More runs were comissioned and it is also being followed up with a 2-HAL. Part of the reason for the success of these units is that they ran in a mixed setting. At the same time as the 2-BILs were running into Portsmouth, they were running alongside steam-hauled trains made of Maunsell coaches (Hornby again). This meant that a modeller didn't need to buy an entire fleet of electrics and Hornby did not need to tool up and entire family of related EMUs at one go.

The Kent coast electrification on the other hand was a very different affair. 4-CEPs replaced steam very quickly and operated alongside other EMUs for the most part. This means that the 4-CEP is not complimentary with anything else in Farish's range. The only matching stuff they sell are the SR scenecraft station buildings. While these make for a very nice layout, they do not provide anything to run on it.

The Desiro has the same problem. These run alongside Pendolinos, 321s, 323s, Electrostars and the like. Nice as it is to have an overhead EMU, it does not allow the recreation of anywhere realistic. Most of the loco hauled AC-trains were gone from the WCML by the time the Desiros arrived.

Another problem is Bachmann's irrational refusal to offer the 450 Desiros in SWT livery. This is an easy win for them as it is just a new livery. The Desiros would have sold better with the initial run split over 3 liveries rather than 2. Ironically, the 450s are better for running on their own if you model the line south of Basingstoke. You could have passenger services in the hands of 450s and Voyagers while an eclectic mix of diesels hand the frieght.

This is why their DMUs sell better. It is nothing to do with the fact that they fit the "transition era" (so does the 4-CEP). The DMUs can be run alongside a wide range of Farish's other offerings to represent the suburban services matching the glamorous express-passenger stuff.

I am not saying Farish should abandon EMUs or focus exclusively on transition era stock. Neither would help grow N gauge. What they need to look at is synergies between their existing range (as well as what Dapol offer) and new models they wish to release.