Bachmann prices are skyrocketing in order to keep up with rising wages and social changes in China and Dapol's ambitious release schedules in N seem to be in tatters, with the long-promised Class 50 possibly being another year off and still no progress on other much-anticipated releases.

So, what's the verdict? Are the days of "You've never had it so good" drawing to a close?

It had to happen - no more days production for a handful of rice. Perhaps it is time to bring production back to the UK, to help with the unemployment figures and balance of payments deficit. Similar problem coming soon to the lightweight motorcycle/scooter industry, where even some of the big brands are made in China. Also, Royal Enfield motorcycles from India are getting better, as the locals demand better, and the prices are going up accordingly.

I think you are probably right. Up to now model railways have been astonishingly cheap compared with other hobbies such as photography.

In cycling most of the transmission parts are made in China. Over the past 18 months those parts have increased so much in price that a £1500 bike now has the standard of parts that were on a £1000 bike.

Do we know exactly how long it takes to build one model Loco, all the different processes it goes through to get to the final stage, all in all I think I will not buy as many as I wanted to, but it will not stop me from buying them, but I think careful thoughts on which model to buy will be key, there are always times when Loco's get reduced in price and that will be a key thought in buying future models.

I think when the price does go any higher then one will want a top quality crafted Loco.

Its interesting to look at prices now compared with the 1950s, 60s and 70s. With the crash in living standards post banker induced mayhem and the rising prices we seem (as far as I can work out) to be about where we were in the mid 1970s in terms of affordability. Compared to the 1950s and 1960s were are doing rather nicely. Remembering that the models are massively better and the range much bigger I  don't think we are doing too badly !

It's not entirely a fair comparison because in the mid 1970s the difference between low end and high end wages was vastly less - so I guess we have some modellers who think its never been so cheap and some who are way worse off than mid 70s.

The other thing happening which is really interesting and I think reflects the wages cost shift quite dramatically is that kit prices and some UK prices for UK built models and track etc have stayed fairly flat while Chinese RTR has gone up and up.

It will be fun to see what Bachmann, as a Chinese company do in the face of all of this, and also to what extent improvements in 3D printing will put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Alan

Nice to know in some respects that even China etc cannot go on forever being cheap.

Quotewhat extent improvements in 3D printing will put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Although I think this may hold the key. Western world "cheap"  plastic items not "Taiwanese"

As we have all seen the creations from 3D printing are improving and more and more items/printers are appearing on the horizon.

The cost of 3D printing will in true terms come down and I see a day in the not too distant future where we download our print requirement, wander down to the local Supermarket USB stick in hand to get our kit/piece whatever. Or as 3D printers drop in price the home print market, like home PCs, will enable a large number of us to sit down and  became almost self sufficient creators. The Print industry has been devastated by cheap home printers for photos etc in the same way Kodak suffered at the hands of digital cameras.

However, the demand for good quality design work as always will be the crux of the issue and CAD is not something easily learnt overnight.

As the Chinese become more affluent and demand more wages, you will see production move to India, then somewhere else after.......
Eventually things will go full circle and i'm sure manufacturing of model railways will return to the UK.

As for prices, as long as we have competition within the UK, then generally prices will not rocket too much.
Lets face it, Dapol and Farish locos can be bought 20% less than the RRP at all the big on line sellers.
I think we still have it good at present and probably will for a while to come.

Interesting topic.

D'ya know what....

I think prices are incredibly low for pretty nicely made, precision items with such vanishingly tiny production runs. Even at RRP of £100+ it is amazing for runs of a few hundred locos; at Hattons or Ebay ~£50-£60 prices it is gobsmacking.  If anyone watches "How It's Made" on quest you can see that items like golf clubs are made by the 10s or 100s of thousands, and still cost more than an N gauge loco.

If prices rose to ~£200 per loco, it would still be good value IMHO - even though it would seem steep having had it so good for quite a while.

We should count our blessings!!!

Cheers  Jon 

Quote from: trainsdownunder on November 25, 2013, 10:30:39 PM
However, the demand for good quality design work as always will be the crux of the issue and CAD is not something easily learnt overnight.

It's something which is taught extensively and 3D print is an activity in many places nowdays. The tools are also improving and the scanning kit likewise. At that point model railways start to work rather like train sims, and you don't need to be a guru to relivery a model or add a detail item.

Mechanisms on the other hand...

Alan

Quote from: OwL on November 25, 2013, 10:33:28 PM
As the Chinese become more affluent and demand more wages, you will see production move to India, then somewhere else after.......
Eventually things will go full circle and i'm sure manufacturing of model railways will return to the UK.

Already happening - Hornby have moved their Humbrol paint range back to being made in UK and it's reported their Airfix aircraft kit range is heading back to the UK too.

Cheers,
Alan

Quote from: PostModN66 on November 25, 2013, 10:43:54 PM
If prices rose to ~£200 per loco, it would still be good value IMHO - even though it would seem steep having had it so good for quite a while.

I think if they rose to that it'd seriously affect the number of new people joining the hobby (which to me is the majorly important thing in the slightly longer term) - you'd be talking over £300 probably for a simple train set including such a loco, which I think would make many walk straight on past...

Cheers,
Alan

Quote from: Dr Al on November 26, 2013, 12:21:55 AM

Quote from: OwL on November 25, 2013, 10:33:28 PM
As the Chinese become more affluent and demand more wages, you will see production move to India, then somewhere else after.......
Eventually things will go full circle and i'm sure manufacturing of model railways will return to the UK.

Already happening - Hornby have moved their Humbrol paint range back to being made in UK and it's reported their Airfix aircraft kit range is heading back to the UK too.

Companies will move manufacturing back to UK just as soon as the immigrant population will work for lower wages than the Chinese and as soon as we are prepared to let the Chinese stop polluting their country to aid us hitting EU targets.

There are probably a lot of places that work can be moved to before that happens though.

Railway Modelling is very very cheap. If N Gauge locos cost £200 each you could still buy 7 or 8 per year for the price of a lower mid range digital camera body and just one lens. DCC looks like the only expensive part of our hobby at the moment.

Quote from: ParkeNd on November 26, 2013, 12:43:01 AM
There are probably a lot of places that work can be moved to before that happens though.

Not really. China right now is a special case. They have enormous experience in the field, specialist tooling expertise, and considerable efficiencies through scale. It's also a country which has relatively good infrastructure.

Setting all that up somewhere else is hard. Most of the places you could set it up are not politically stable (in areas your expensive factory may be  seized, turned into a crater or other things of that nature) and/or have endemic corruption problems way beyond those China has.

It also doesn't fix your transport costs (which are soaring) and the problems caused by long turnarounds, lack of control, and of language and culture.

Also you don't bring it back "as is", you look to bring it back smarter and more mechanised with less staff making more products with better machinery.

Alan

The price of everything will be affected by a more affluent China as they become able to afford more of the things that we take for granted - including food.

...R

I am just wondering what shipping costs are now compared to 10 years ago and yes the cycle will come back to the UK for manufacturing one day, and if Loco's do hit the £200 mark what would we expect from them ie sound lights in the cab etc, there must be different aspects that the model manufacturers look at to justify increases in these models.