Ebay Is Dead To Me

[EtchedPixels]

And of course with new tooling there are new prices. I don't know if its a new tooling run, but Graham Farish coaches are now nearly £50 each!

This is a large part of why my spend on N gauge in the past four years has been almost zero and I doubt I'm unusual in that.

[Mr Sprue]

The OO market is saturated. Close to everything is already pretty much available - which is why there are now multiple manufacturers making new toolings of the same thing, and trying to use features to prompt sales - and the differences in said features and detail is getting smaller and smaller.

The UK is also now extremely polarised. More people over 65 own a home than under 50, only 25% of people under 45 own a home rather than renting and thus often moving around. Many under 40 only have a room in an HMO.

Unfortunately for volume production you need a lot of buyers of the same model, not a small number of very rich people as they simply don't buy enough. Fine for 5 grand etched brass O gauge masterpieces but not for mainstream RTR.

That's a very interesting statistic, also going by model railway shows and shops how they have declined over the past twenty years, I guess the best of this hobbies days are pretty much over!

[Newportnobby]

I guess the best of this hobbies days are pretty much over!

I won't believe they're over, but they do have more competition. People love the latest iPhone/pad and a 70" TV on the wall while paying through the nose for streaming extra channels. They have, to my mind, nothing to moan about. How each person disposes of their income is up to them.
These days, we have more than a couple of model railway manufacturers producing high quality (mostly) detailed models for us to spend our income on. Yes, prices are higher but we have to forget the good old days of low prices. They are long gone

[5944]

I guess the best of this hobbies days are pretty much over!

I won't believe they're over, but they do have more competition. People love the latest iPhone/pad and a 70" TV on the wall while paying through the nose for streaming extra channels. They have, to my mind, nothing to moan about. How each person disposes of their income is up to them.
These days, we have more than a couple of model railway manufacturers producing high quality (mostly) detailed models for us to spend our income on. Yes, prices are higher but we have to forget the good old days of low prices. They are long gone

Were prices ever that low, or do they just seem it compared to now? Have a look through this price list for Farish from October 1998.

https://tinyurl.com/y2j2nbe6

Black 5s, £79.95. Halls, £69.25. Using BoE's inflation calculator, they come out as pretty much £160 and £140 respectively today. The RRP for the latest Black 5 is £175 and £190 for the Hall. But the Hall back then was bloody awful!

A J94 in 1998 was £37.75 RRP, equivalent to £75 now. You can pick up an EFE for less than that.

There is some very odd pricing going on with Ebay at the moment. A lot of people seem to be thinking stuff is worth a lot more than it really is, or are simply using Ebay's suggested starting point and adding some extra. The ones that really puzzle me are the ones putting on secondhand Sonic J50s with the auction start price far in excess of the price Rails are charging for brand new models!

TVs are a bad example to quote as an example of excessive spending, as they are probably the only thing that have come down in price over the years. I bought a 42" flat screen when I bought my first house in 2010 and it cost over £900. Replaced it last year for a far superior model for less than a third of that.

[njee20]

@5944 can you please fix your link, it's broken the page width.

only 25% of people under 45 own a home rather than renting and thus often moving around. Many under 40 only have a room in an HMO.

Unfortunately for volume production you need a lot of buyers of the same model, not a small number of very rich people as they simply don't buy enough. Fine for 5 grand etched brass O gauge masterpieces but not for mainstream RTR.

What we actually need is more of less models at lower prices, but that's not in the interest of any market player short term.

I've seen you post similar things before, would be interested in any data on that, because I'll be honest it sounds a bit Daily Mail. A quick Google suggests 56% of 30-45 year olds own their own home, and ~30% of 21-30 year olds. HMO stock accounts for about 2% of properties, and whilst it's more prolific in London and other major cities I'm not sure I'd say "many under 40s live in HMOs" specifically in the context of the halcyon days of model railways being behind us, there's always been that contingent of younger professionals sharing flats in cities. They've never been prolific railway modellers as a demographic!

[EtchedPixels]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/321065/uk-england-home-owners-age-groups/


https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/census2021dictionary/variablesbytopic/housingvariablescensus2021/householdsofmultipleoccupancyhmo

has HMO data. 2% of property, higher than that of people.

The halcyon days of model railways are IMHO definitely behind us, but the notion that it's doom and gloom I would agree is also wrong. We are back about where we were before cheap Chinese labour and improved moulding technology upended the market and pricing. We've lost the cheap labour (good!) but whilst we have much higher prices in real terms that the boom years we've got vastly better models and technology in the process.

So no its definitely not all doom and gloom, but I don't think there is the volume to sustain the number of manufacturers and therefore that Heljan will be unique.

[njee20]

Neither of those support the bit I quoted - that only 25% of under 45s own a home. The Statista chart is the age distribution of home owners. It's not that surprising that it increases the older you get, because not that many will go back into rented once they've bought and Boomers have destroyed the housing market 

[Mr Sprue]

I guess the best of this hobbies days are pretty much over!

I won't believe they're over, but they do have more competition. People love the latest iPhone/pad and a 70" TV on the wall while paying through the nose for streaming extra channels. They have, to my mind, nothing to moan about. How each person disposes of their income is up to them.
These days, we have more than a couple of model railway manufacturers producing high quality (mostly) detailed models for us to spend our income on. Yes, prices are higher but we have to forget the good old days of low prices. They are long gone

When I quoted "I guess the best of this hobbies days are pretty much over!" It was aimed at comparing shows that were once heaving with attendees and stalls, unlike today where everything has shrunk. Warley around 14 years ago, compared to other shows was like entering a city for model railways, but each year I attended it got less and less and the walkways wider.

Such a sad thing to witness. Ally pally was a fave of mine too, now that's barely worth the visit and I only live about 17 miles away!

[njee20]

I'm sure Chris Morris said in his capacity with the Warley club that the show didn't shrink, and any perception of that was purely based on rose tinted glasses about how good things were in the olden days. I'm sure there was some variation year-on-year, but not the endemic shrinking some would suggest.

[Newportnobby]

Sadly, the ages of the folk who have the stock and run shows/exhibit at them means a decline in the numbers of layouts appearing. Take James Street as an ideal example - age has caught up with those who set it up/run it/break it down  
The best show in the NW i.e. Wigan show ceased because the club members admitted they were too old to face doing it any more.
There's no denying model railways are generally run and manned by the elder statesmen of the hobby, and their numbers are decreasing due to age/health

[njee20]

But younger people are getting older all of the time to take their place!

[Will_J]

Sorry, Ben, but I don't agree with the 'cake decoration' view. I have been to exhibitions when I'm convinced N gauge models look more realistic. In fact on a trip to England I commented to @Newportnobby of this parish that OO stuff looks like plastic toys compared to N.

But, as with so much in life, the eye of the beholder, I guess. I have certainly encountered people here in Australia who would not give N gauge a chance to even show it's face. I'll name them too - BRMA, The British Railways Modellers of Australia. Shocking set of scale snobs.

As perhaps a more unbiased view, when my wife attends exhibitions with me she frequently comments on how "plasticy" and toylike larger scales often look, especially O Gauge.

My wife says the same thing, strangely! She says N seems more lifelike to her because there's often more scenery to give the moving models a "place to exist" if that makes sense. Of course this is all just personal subjective taste, but it's an interesting observation.

[Bealman]

It's basically true, though. N gauge allows for a 'railway in the landscape ' approach as exemplified by Pendon. This just looks more realistic. Larger scales appeal to folk who appreciate and concentrate on stock rather than scenery. While the stock looks more detailed and has 'mass', the scenery correspondenly looks more toy-like.

My opinion only.

[Will_J]

It's basically true, though. N gauge allows for a 'railway in the landscape ' approach as exemplified by Pendon. This just looks more realistic. Larger scales appeal to folk who appreciate and concentrate on stock rather than scenery. While the stock looks more detailed and has 'mass', the scenery correspondenly looks more toy-like.

My opinion only.

Agreed, if you look at a layout like Pettleworth Downs, I think it's it's got that Pendon magic despite being the size of a small dining table. You need drastically more space investment to get the same effect in OO, and I rarely see that kind of thing at shows.

[Foxhound]

My wife says the same thing, strangely! She says N seems more lifelike to her because there's often more scenery to give the moving models a "place to exist" if that makes sense. Of course this is all just personal subjective taste, but it's an interesting observation.

I'm in the lucky position of having a wife who likes to do my scenery for me. She also considers OO to be toy-like. The resurgence in TT came too late into our relationship (we've been together 17.5 years) for me to even think about buying it, space being a primary driver. She actively encouraged me to return to the hobby at 40, which I hadn't touched since my very early 20s. Even if we don't work on the layout every week, it doesn't matter, the time we do spend on it together is always worthwhile and good fun.

We're working on plans for a second layout currently which was going to be a twin-track dog-bone basic set-up to run my foreign stock, but she's now looking at European landscapes....

I think that there's a degree of silly expectation on eBay from some sellers about the value of things, and I also think people need to realise that if it ain't boxed, you can shave a fair amount off the price.