Covid vaccine

[Buffin]

I'm only here because I was tagged. @woodbury22uk

In October 2020, there were 43,265 deaths registered in England. This was similar to the number in October 2019 (eight more deaths), but it was 2,713 more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for October.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/october2020#leading-causes-of-death-registered-in-october-2020

If we're really in the grip of a pandemic dangerous enough to justify the lockdown of society with all its implications, for me the numbers would need to be way higher. But I'm out of here again.

[Newportnobby]

Without doubt this subject is very volatile but all are entitled to their opinions regardless. If figures are being quoted please link to the source or don't quote them at all. If any opinions stated make you angry in the slightest, I'd ask for calm before you post replies. We have 6 pages so far without politics creeping in so I thank you for that. Please just show respect to contributors.

[woodbury22uk]

I'm only here because I was tagged. @woodbury22uk

In October 2020, there were 43,265 deaths registered in England. This was similar to the number in October 2019 (eight more deaths), but it was 2,713 more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for October.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/october2020#leading-causes-of-death-registered-in-october-2020

If we're really in the grip of a pandemic dangerous enough to justify the lockdown of society with all its implications, for me the numbers would need to be way higher. But I'm out of here again.

I won't tag Buffin again.

So he was quoting the figure for October 2020 for England which was 8 higher in 2020,than in 2019 although 2713 above the five year average, in spite of one fewer reporting day in 2020. The figure for Wales was +118 on 2019, again with one fewer reporting day. I was struggling with this because the weekly figures were showing increases. These have the same number of reporting days each week.

[Snowwolflair]

..........And the total figures show fewer people are dying of other causes especially as a lot of infectious diseases are being partly supressed by COVID regulations.

You also have to remember that COVID is killing off early the reservoir of people who would have died in short order anyway so the excess death figure is inevitably distorting with time.  As a statistician would tell you that uncontrolled COVID would eventually kill everyone susceptible to dying with the disease and the death rate for all reasons would normalise without any precautions.  The problem is that the population would be 40% smaller.

Just to spice things up     

Durex have reported, based on their sales, that large parts of the population have also gone off sex, and there has been a drop in sexually transmitted diseases despite the fall of use of their product. 

[daffy]

One important thing to take away from the ONS figures for October is that although the year on year figures were very similar, the number of deaths due to causes other than Coronavirus this October were less than those of 2019.

@Buffin  - "If we're really in the grip of a pandemic dangerous enough to justify the lockdown of society with all its implications, for me the numbers would need to be way higher."

Take away the Lockdown, either the style we had earlier in the year or this current one, or the Tier levels that are to follow it, and you would soon find that 'need' fulfilled. And even with such measures I fear the numbers will rise considerably over the coming months.

This is a Pandemic, no matter how you view it. It is worldwide, hence the name, and by the end of this week some 1,500,000 people will have died from the effects of the virus, with millions more otherwise affected adversely for periods as yet unknown.

ONE MILLION, FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS! - and that's just in about two thirds of a year since Covid19 began to get our attention.

And the winter in the highly populated Northern Hemisphere, always a time the medical services dread as it inevitably leads to an extra burden on their physical, mental and logistical resources even in 'normal' years, is only just beginning.

So stay safe, may the virus pass you by, and may you never know the pain, the suffering and the agony that this 'now' apparently 'mild flu' (we'll have to differ on that descriptor I'm afraid) can, and will, inflict upon so many, many more lives for many months to come.

[acko22]

I shall do as Buffin wishes and not tag him in this,

But his analysis is flawed on 2 fronts, firstly does Pandemic have to just included deaths? No, not at all the definition of a pandemic is:
"A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale." and "A disease or condition is not a pandemic merely because it is widespread or kills many people; it must also be infectious".

Think it is fair to say Covid 19 does fall firmly into those predefined descriptions.

Then the second flawed points is the number of deaths in the UK according to the ONS while it may be true that only 8 more deaths may have been recorded in October it doesn't account for the dramatic change in our behaviours and activities. We have been far less active as a country (no pubs, no large outdoor pursuits, some companies where industrial accidents are a risk have not operated or limited operations, less people driving to work so less road traffic accidents).
A truer gauge of this is the PHE statistics which take this into account:

https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html

Which shows even with the expected decrease deaths due to us been less active the excess mortality rate for October due to Covid 19 is around 2,540 and that is paled when you compare it the third week in April when in one week alone there was 11,247 excess deaths due to Covid.
What those statistics do show for October though is the negative upward trend through the month of Covid related deaths similar to what we saw in early March, which backs up the scientific stand point a second lock down was a must to prevent the numbers of deaths and infections reaching what we saw in April.

What that document from the PHE does show very clearly also is that of the 59,858 excess deaths recorded between 20th March and the first week in November 58,335 were deaths directly attributable to Covid 19, which when the total deaths in that period is taken into account the deaths due to the virus accounts for around 16% of total deaths and is the highest single factor for deaths! Only cancer as a collective of all types has had a higher mortality rate in that same period, which speaks volumes and for itself!

[Lawrence]

I have just spent part of my birthday in a drive thru centre getting a covid test, now I (and my family) have to wait for the results to come in.
Three weeks ago my daughter got married in front of 14 people not the 100 planned, next week my 81 y o mum moves house (after a covid delay), daughter and her new hubby move house in Jan subject to none of us testing positive in the next few weeks.

If positive, my work place has to shut down for two weeks, that's another 8 people and their families affected, then there is my wife's' company, another 10 families etc, etc.

Not taking the option of a vaccine doesn't just affect you, it affects the loved ones who surround you. Denying the global brilliance that has brought about these vaccines is ignorant, demeaning and selfish.

For the ones close to me that I love, I hope my test comes back negative because it will make their lives easier and make them realise that having the option for getting vaccinated is a really positive step.

[PLD]

Durex have reported, based on their sales, that large parts of the population have also gone off sex, and there has been a drop in sexually transmitted diseases despite the fall of use of their product. 

Due to certain "hospitality establishments" being closed ?!? 

[Railwaygun]

It is important to watch the effects in the US when 6 MILLION poeple took air flights to celebrate Thanksgiving - the forthcoming spike in cases and deaths may be the final nail in the coffin of the US medical system.

Now wait for the effects of our Christmas holiday!!

[Snowwolflair]

It is important to watch the effects in the US when 6 MILLION poeple took air flights to celebrate Thanksgiving - the forthcoming spike in cases and deaths may be the final nail in the coffin of the US medical system.

Now wait for the effects of our Christmas holiday!!

If it is severe enough in the US what's the odds on a UK Christmas rethink at the last minute.

The thanksgiving deaths should start to roll in from the 12th December.

[Graham]

I for one will be taking up the vaccine as soon as it is available to me. I think some of the earlier posts hit it on the head we have to get back to being responsible to everyone and not just being concerned about our rights. Also by being vaccinated I will be able to travel again and I want to get to see the family back in the UK. (should also coincide with TINGS 21 if I am lucky and it is running).

[Bealman]

See you there, then. 

[Flange Squeal]

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved for use in the UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

[The Q]

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved for use in the UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

Just watch those politicians demonstrate it's safe to use... AKA jumping the queue

[Karhedron]

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved for use in the UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

Just watch those politicians demonstrate it's safe to use... AKA jumping the queue

True. But given the millions of doses ordered, if it helps increase confidence in the vaccine then I won't complain (too loudly ).