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Author Topic: Coronavirus and models.  (Read 3968 times)

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Offline railsquid

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #30 on: March 10, 2020, 04:22:05 AM »
Pro-tip: try to refrain from licking exposed surfaces.

In an alternative universe I was supposed to be in northern Italy around this time for work reasons, luckily I procrastinated the plan into oblivion well before people started panic-buying toiletries.
Takahachikawa - Japanese and other trains

Birmingham Knotmore Street - (ex) GWR mainline through the Midlands

Offline Jerry Howlett

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #31 on: March 10, 2020, 07:27:08 AM »
 :veryangry:  Well I AM IN ITALY and looks like Im saying goodbye to Ally Pally and the Reigate show.   

Perhaps all will be better by TINGS.

Still I guess Ive got nothing else to do but work on the layout.


Jerry
Some days its just not worth gnawing through the straps.

Offline Bealman

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2020, 07:35:48 AM »
I'm sure this nonsense will be over before too long, mate.  :thumbsup:
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 11:23:00 AM by Bealman »
Vision over visibility. Bono, U2.

Online Snowwolflair

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2020, 10:58:38 AM »
This is the John Hopkins University real time data that is accepted to be the most reliable.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 

Offline Bealman

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2020, 11:30:49 AM »
Interesting link.. I find the map somewhat distracting and somewhat annoying.

I hand drew a lot of maps during my academic years, and those bubble-balloon type maps generated from statistics blur the situation and basically do not impart any sort of useful information.
Vision over visibility. Bono, U2.

Online Snowwolflair

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.

however on a lighter note here is the latest advice on deep cleaning  :D
https://imgur.com/gallery/xfs1T0D 

Offline Bob Tidbury

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2020, 12:26:46 PM »
At least he found another  use for bagpipes HA HA HA .
Bob Tidbury
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 12:28:14 PM by Bob Tidbury »

Online njee20

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2020, 01:14:05 PM »
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.

1. It's a very small number. In China it's 0.005%, Italy is 0.015% UK is 0.0005%
2. That doesn't tell you anything about the health service at all though, there are so many more factors than that. Population density will have a greater impact. That's a woeful misapplication of statistics.

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2020, 01:29:25 PM »
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.

1. It's a very small number. In China it's 0.005%, Italy is 0.015% UK is 0.0005%
2. That doesn't tell you anything about the health service at all though, there are so many more factors than that. Population density will have a greater impact. That's a woeful misapplication of statistics.

Not on its own but Italy for instance has an intensive care bed percentage for the population by the same measure is 0.01% (as they at 33% beyond saturation) so they are in trouble already. 

We have a similar ratio of intensive care beds and a similar but younger average population so when the UK infected figures (infected minus recovered and dead) exceeds something like 8000 we will be in big trouble as well.  Last week we had 80% use of intensive care beds and the NHS is trying to increase the total number by 15%.

Online njee20

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2020, 04:28:01 PM »
But that's not even just the infected group, that's the "occupying an intensive care bed" group, which is totally different. A small proportion of infected require hospital treatment, less than 10%. It's also still not related to the total population of the country or the total population who have died.

Lombardy, in Italy, apparently has about 500 intensive care beds, and 10m people, so 0.005% of the population. There is a shortage, as you say, but knowing that 0.015% of the national population are infected doesn't help you. They don't need three times the beds they have. Clearly the concentration of people with the virus in Lombardy is higher than the country as a whole.

You can derive no meaningful conclusions on the stress a country's healthcare is under from national figures, partially because the concentrations are so low and thus so targeted at present.



Online Snowwolflair

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2020, 04:37:59 PM »
But that's not even just the infected group, that's the "occupying an intensive care bed" group, which is totally different. A small proportion of infected require hospital treatment, less than 10%. It's also still not related to the total population of the country or the total population who have died.

Lombardy, in Italy, apparently has about 500 intensive care beds, and 10m people, so 0.005% of the population. There is a shortage, as you say, but knowing that 0.015% of the national population are infected doesn't help you. They don't need three times the beds they have. Clearly the concentration of people with the virus in Lombardy is higher than the country as a whole.

You can derive no meaningful conclusions on the stress a country's healthcare is under from national figures, partially because the concentrations are so low and thus so targeted at present.


I will pass your thoughts on to the experts I am quoting. :)

Online njee20

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2020, 05:09:20 PM »
If you could. If you’re quoting verbatim then we’re in a world of trouble, as they seem not to understand statistics, or even basic English.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 05:10:40 PM by njee20 »

Online Snowwolflair

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2020, 05:40:50 PM »



Offline daffy

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2020, 06:12:45 PM »
Statistics discussions and disagreements aside - no matter how you interpret, juggle, skew, or otherwise look at statistics, a few statistics re the situation in Italy are clear:

In the last 24 hours 168 people have died in Italy as a result of the infection.

To date, 631 people in Italy have died as a result on the infection.

At present, 877 people in Italy are in a serious or critical condition as a result of the infection.

All else is noise.



Mike

Sufferin' succotash!

Online exmouthcraig

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Re: Coronavirus and models.
« Reply #44 on: March 10, 2020, 07:31:31 PM »
The truth is IF you are concerned about YOUR own health condition and the effect this virus could have on YOU, YOU need to make what decisions YOU feel are necessary.

I will probably end up dead from it but.... 

I am not travelling on public transport, I never have any reason too.

I dont come into close personal contact with anyone other then Mrs EC and shes got a few manners to not be coughing or sneezing over me.

I dont meet members of the public or shake hands with every person I pass by. The last person I had face to face dealings with was last month.

I have plenty of anti bacterial soap, tissues and toilet roll. My weekly shop was Scan and Pack, I used my own carrier bags, packed my own shopping and paid using my card from my wallet, i bumped into no one, spoke to no one and definitely wasnt covered in any type of fluid from any human being.

We have been told that no one of good health will see any ill effects from this virus IF they catch it. Many hate the fact it's getting referred to as Normal Flu but no one bats an eyelid if 4!!!! Pensioners in the uk died from flu especially as they had other health issues.

The NATURAL world is SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST the problem with society is we all want to live forever. This will take a few off the face of the earth but that happens every year with other illnesses.

LOOK AFTER YOURSELF and MAKE YOU OWN EDUCATED DECISIONS about how you cope with the threat of this virus.

 

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