Should Bachfar copy Hornby by doing budget Rail Road locos and rolling stock

[mark100]

There is a move to N amongst 'new' modellers - be they returnees to the fold or people who have never had a model railway before - but it is in small numbers compared to many other hobbies.

From the retailers perspective additional ranges of similar models just tie up more money in stock.
("I'd like a N gauge class 99 please."
"Yes sir. Premium or cheap? DCC fitted or not? Weathered or not? Which of the four livery versions?......")

Attracting the youngsters is a different thing all together - play value is the key here. Thomas and film tie-ins (sensible ones where the train is actually part of the story) are good - but film tie-ins are very ephemeral. Working features are good (car transporters, mail bag pick ups, container cranes etc.) but not really robust enough in N. Also it needs to be cheap - the fact that in virtually any other market, like cameras, mobile phones, oil paintings the smaller the item is the more you expect to pay doesn't cut the mustard with toys and passtimes.

You wouldn't want to ditch DCC for the budget range - most people just can't cope with two rail wiring from a standing start. If you can open the box, connect the track to the controller and run a number of locos straight out of the box then that is definitely a plus. If you can do it from your 'phone or tablet even better.

Tin hat on and taking shelter...

Definitely with you on the "themed" angle Ian. And yes, playability for youngsters would be the draw - controlling the train through your iPhone or iPad might be a major draw. Sounds gimmicky to us guys, but it's about expanding the customer base, drawing in more recruits who will later move on to "our kind of modelling".

In that case then DCC would be required wouldn't it Ian. Ah .... the cost has just shot up again!  :'(

The idea of a range to draw in more kids, or a range to bring in those who cannot afford the current ranges sounds such a noble one to me. That said, nobility doesn't come into economics does it? 

Maybe we should accept (maybe most of you already have) that this is now a grown-up's hobby, with some kids being interested, but it being very niche in their generation. Perhaps that's just the way of the world. Like all things, we change over time, from generation to generation.

Perhaps the kids of 2050 will be saying "what's an ipad?"

Dan

Our 2 eldest pulled Windows Vista to pieces and then gave their verdict to rest of the family, stick to XP, They learn quick these days,
We will never go DCC but will stick to the old way and some track isolation switches here and there.
I'm not even fussed about directional lighting and once we have built the new layout, i can see myself snipping wires in certain locos to stop the lights working.

[Moria]

I think we had this already - the Bachmann rechassied Poole models were essentially this - a simple chassis with existing body tooling. But they weren't significantly cheaper or certainly not as cheap as some folks appear to want though - it may just be that prices are what they are given constraints of the market and *can't* really come down much, no matter how simple (and potentially garbage) the chassis ends up being?

That's true but they were released as "normal range", priced as such. They were targeted at the existing N Gauge market, with subsequent low volumes in mind (hence high prices). Any new budget range would be priced in order to grow the market, and a larger market means lower production costs. I know, I know ... it's chicken and egg! How do we get lower prices if we don't have a large enough market? How do we get a large enough market if we don't have lower prices?

Add things like DCC compatibility (which would be a must on any model produced new-tool now) and I doubt it'll end up much cheaper than we currently see. I doubt any manufacturer could release a non-DCC compatible model these days without coming in for a lot of flak, unless there is excusable size reasons for very small tank locos or suchlike.

Good point bringing up DCC. I would say any budget brand forgoes DCC. Entry level is most likely going to be an oval or end to end with a siding or two. There's no need here for DCC. That's one of the bells, or whistles, you get when you pay top dollar. The more differentiating points you can come up with between your premium and budget products, the more you can separate the two markets and stop the cheaper products cannibalising the premium sector. Maybe have them DCC upgradeable (I don't know - I'm not a DCC man).

Dan

Sorry Dan, I have to disagree..  Forgoing DCC would be absolutely the wrong choice.  You want new modellers and those new modellers are into pushing buttons like they are used to on their PS4's and Xbox's, so to get those new modellers, I believe you need DCC and probably Sound.  This is the way Hornby are going..  cheaper models with sound built in, but they have the luxury of economies of scale that N gauge doesn't have.

PS lets look at this...  Xbox one.. 399 pounds...  each game 70 pounds...  Xbox live subscription...  50 pounds / 12 months... 

assuming 3 or 4 games for the console..  a minimum to keep someone occupied for a few months..  700 - 750 pounds.   Bearing in mind the working life of a console is 3 - 4 years and the average console owner buys 2 games a month,  I don't think the "costs" are what is the issue here.

I think the issue is more that with the reduction in usage of railways today in the real world.. there just isn't the interest there used to be.

I suggest, humbly    that cost is a percieved issue, but not a valid one..  getting people to understand what the railways are and generating an interest in them is far more important and the hobby will then grow as a result.

Regards

Graham

[Paddy]

Hi Paddy

I think I have come to the same conclusion re size of the market. You said;

Personally I do not think the British N Gauge market is big enough yet to support "premium" and "standard" ranges of models.

So, with that in mind, your other comment follows on nicely ...

Another option (which I am sure Bachmann are striving to do) is to grow the market volume.

This to me is the $64,000 question. How do you grow the market? There will be those who convert from "Orribly Oversized" over time but wouldn't dipping a toe in the budget market be worth a go for Bachmann? Start with two budget models perhaps and a few wagons, coaches. Approach it from a "softly, softly, slowly, slowly" angle, rather than throwing large sums at it from day one with a fifty line range. I don't know what old tooling would be suitable but perhaps they have something they could use.

Just a thought. I really don't know if it would work, but it surely must be one strategy that could (note the word could, not will) grow the market.

I like your idea of "order on demand" but you are right, it would decimate what is left of the model shop scene.

Dan

Hi Dan,

I do not see many OO modellers moving to N gauge because there is a "budget" range.  To me a budget N gauge range would be aimed at the train set market primarily and this is owned by Hornby and OO.  However, if British N gauge continues to improve in both detail, quality and remains price competitive with OO then we may steal market share from them.

My concern over this though is whether sales of OO models are effectively subsidising the prices of N especially in the case of Bachmann.  If OO declines and not enough modellers switch to N then we could see an even worse situation as there would not be sufficient volumes in either scale thus prices rise even faster.

Kind regards

Paddy

[Paddy]

Ah, is this the 5 minute argument or the full half hour?

Seriously, this has been done again and again.  The market just is not big enough to have 2 ranges.   You inevitably cannibalise sales of one of the ranges.

I'm really not sure that larger production runs = lower unit costs.  If the tooling is old and amortised then the costs are all production costs and they are the same per unit if you produce 500 or 5000. The real issue is about how many pieces are required to produce a model - when you look at the seperate detail on a Polybulk you can understand why it costs so much to produce - the question then becomes not whether the detail is worth doing (it absolutely is) but whether all those individual parts need to be seperate.  My view on the later is that they don't necessarily have to all be seperate detail. I suspect that finding a balance between seperate and moulded detail (provided the detail is present and accurate) is a more likely way to find cost savings than a second range or larger production runs.

Cheers, Mike

Hi Mike,

Larger production runs would equate to lower costs but as you say not at the 500 to 5000 level.  You would probably need to be looking at 5 figure runs and I cannot see British N gauge or any other scale reaching those levels again.

There is also the possibility of a new China coming on stream but this is likely to take many years.

Kind regards

Paddy

[Ian Morton]

With a production line there is a set up cost - loading the tools, etc.. that has to be paid regardless of the number of models in the run. A run of 5000 will, per model, have 1/10th the set up cost of a run of 500 - and the down time to change the tools can be as much as the time taken to run the models for a short run.

[Dorsetmike]

Given that there is usually a reissue of a model with a new name/number/livery etc . they could always do a much larger initial production run and hold back enough for the subsequent runs.

[Roy L S]

Given that there is usually a reissue of a model with a new name/number/livery etc . they could always do a much larger initial production run and hold back enough for the subsequent runs.

That involves having capital tied up in stock and not recovering your production cost plus the cost of warehousing somewhere. Most take the view these days that you only batch produce what you hope to sell. Bachmann produce 1008 of each livery variant and that is I would think pretty substantial for the N Market.

Regards

Roy

[PLD]

Given that there is usually a reissue of a model with a new name/number/livery etc . they could always do a much larger initial production run and hold back enough for the subsequent runs.

That involves having capital tied up in stock and not recovering your production cost plus the cost of warehousing somewhere. Most take the view these days that you only batch produce what you hope to sell. Bachmann produce 1008 of each livery variant and that is I would think pretty substantial for the N Market.

Not only that; producing twice as many per variant but only half as many variants, will REDUCE overall sales as the 'collectors' who buy 1 or every variation will now buy only one model instead of two!   

[PLD]

Good point bringing up DCC. I would say any budget brand forgoes DCC. Entry level is most likely going to be an oval or end to end with a siding or two. There's no need here for DCC. That's one of the bells, or whistles, you get when you pay top dollar. The more differentiating points you can come up with between your premium and budget products, the more you can separate the two markets and stop the cheaper products cannibalising the premium sector. Maybe have them DCC upgradeable (I don't know - I'm not a DCC man).

Dan

Completely the WRONG way round if the hope of  budget range is to attract new and younger modellers! 

New entrants to the hobby are MORE likely to adopt DCC than the existing modellers with perhaps significant funds tied up in a lot of non-compatable stock and the younger modeller is more likely to be comfortable with digital/computer control devices...

[woodbury22uk]

Where does the existing Union Mills range fit into this? Simple, robust, reliable, great value for money. Strikes me that a dumbed down Bachfar range is going to hit the same price point without the UM plus points.

Very unlikely that Oxford Rail will come along with a cheaper rolling stock range, so we are stuck with even simple wagons being relatively expensive. I am convinced that N will remain a niche market in the UK, and that the price attraction of a budget range would not change that.

[NeMo]

Where does the existing Union Mills range fit into this? Simple, robust, reliable, great value for money. Strikes me that a dumbed down Bachfar range is going to hit the same price point without the UM plus points.

I brought that up earlier in this thread, and like you, wondered why no-one had mentioned UM before!

But to answer my/your question, I think the problem is that UM only make steam locomotives, and in very small quantities. They're virtually impossible to buy in model shops (they do sometimes turn up secondhand to be sure) and without an online presence, UM aren't going to be visible to casual hobbyists searching around for ideas.

That's a crying shame, because like you, I think Union Mills models have a lot going for them. Imagine something like a J39 with three or four pretty private owner coal wagons, or a Prince of Wales in LMS red with a couple of Stanier coaches! Lovely starter sets, and pretty much rock solid so far engineering and reliability goes.

But younger modellers (and that's who we're talking about here) don't automatically click with steam locomotives. UM don't make any diesels, which are the default starting point of pretty much any modeller under the age of 50.

Cheers, NeMo

[DesertHound]

Okay guys, I've been having a think and to me there's no clear "right" answer to this conundrum of introducing a budget range.

Just a note re DCC vs non-DCC. I think we're talking about two different issues here. The original gist of the topic was about releasing a budget range. We have moved the topic along slightly to also include "bringing new people into the hobby" and this is where the DCC appeal is coming into play for the youngster. Completely agree that for that segment DCC would be desirable.

As someone above mentioned a few posts back, there also isn't the interest in railways today like there was years ago, and that's a factor which doesn't help boost the hobby.

My opinion is still that it is a hobby in decline (certainly in the UK) and it is down to the manufacturers to try and change that if they still want a business in x years to come. Of all the manufacturers, I only recognise Hornby as taking any meaningful steps in this direction.

I also still think it is a very expensive hobby and beyond the means of some people who might like to try it.

It's been an interesting discussion nonetheless.

Cheers

Dan

[DesertHound]

I had a look on the Hornby website yesterday and clicked on their Railroad budget section. It seems like a really good idea to me and the only (or should I say the most compelling) case I've seen yet of a manufacturer trying to broaden their sales base and increase market participation.

With the caveat of the size of the N market, factory capacity and so on, I can still imagine Bachmann doing something in N, using a different brand than Graham Farish and using old tooling. No it wouldn't be to the appeal to most on here (experienced modellers) but it would be the start for many new entrants who would just be out off by cost otherwise.

Every hobby I can think of (I know someone will come up with one I haven't thought of) has entry level ranges, but it's not really there with Bachmann in N. I guess the train sets are the closest they come and do represent some kind of value.

I'm not sure if I can add much else to the discussion from here, but as I said above, it's been a very enjoyable topic.

Cheers

Dan

[javlinfaw7]

Is the old garish gp tank locomotive that occasionally appears in sets not the equivalent of this

[Paddy]

Hi Dan,

I am still struggling to see who a "budget" range of British N gauge would be aimed at.  Without wishing to cause offence it would seem to be:

1. Kids
2. Modellers with less disposable income for their hobby
3. Modellers looking for low cost super detailing projects

Taking each of these in turn...

1. Kids.  I am not sure there really is a significant toy train market for N gauge - well not in the UK.  OO and Hornby in particular seem to have this market covered.  Also OO tends to fit in with other toys in this area such as cars, trucks and toy soldiers (assuming kids still play with such things).

2. Modellers with less disposable income for their hobby.  This one I can see a need for although from a business perspective I would want to know volumes, margin before going down that route.  I fear that modellers in this category would not actually spend anymore money but would simply get more for the buck.  Not sure how this grows the market or benefits someone like Bachmann.

3. Modellers looking for low cost super detailing projects.  Again I can see a market here although once again the question of volumes/margin comes in to play.  Also if you want low cost models to use as detailing projects/repaints etc. then there is already a ready supply on places like eBay.

So in summary I am not sure British N gauge can supprot a "budget" range or even would benefit from one.  Personally I still believe the best way to grow the market is to continue to produce the best models possible within a reasonable price structure.  If Bachmann are unable to deliver on volume/price then this will surely become an opportunity for some other enterprising manufacturer such as Dapol, Hornby, Oxford or even large retailers like Hattons, Gaugemaster etc.

Kind regards

Paddy