model power

[EtchedPixels]

purchased at the release price...just a thought. I do remember reading that the Ixion Manor cost around £17 to build,although with nothing credible to back this up

When Lindsay (Ixion) was explaining why they dropped out of UK N numbers were quoted publically. Summarising

Current cost is £90,000 to make 1000 locos, plus advertising/shipping/warehousing etc

At the time of the Manor it worked out as follows

1200 locos @£84 to Ixion
£42 of each goes to paying off tooling/production costs
£21 went to Dapol for design/distribution/service
£21 retained profit (to actually pay for all the actual work they did)

which wasn't sustainable even when they had no retail trade in the middle.

The numbers look better the higher volume you do but that's shifting bit by bit also - the percentage wise the cost of per unit assembly (the cost that doesn't go down much with volume) is going up and up.

Add into that the fact that as prices rise volumes fall and I think its a fair bet that we'll see much higher prices, far less new models, and more reliveries.

At some point 3D print will get good enough to really begin to change the rules as well.

In time I'm sure £200-250 will be the normal price for a loco, but on the bright side - as the prices begin to equalize it begins to make sense to build them back in Europe.

Alan

[Paddy]

This 3D printing does look impressive.  Would I be correct in thinking that eventually you will be able to print in colour as well?  If so then you could produce a rolling stock item fully decorated at the touch of a button.

Paddy

[EtchedPixels]

Colour is doable already.. its the combination of good colour, surface quality and price we need.

Alan

[Chatty]

purchased at the release price...just a thought. I do remember reading that the Ixion Manor cost around £17 to build,although with nothing credible to back this up

When Lindsay (Ixion) was explaining why they dropped out of UK N numbers were quoted publically. Summarising

Current cost is £90,000 to make 1000 locos, plus advertising/shipping/warehousing etc

At the time of the Manor it worked out as follows

1200 locos @£84 to Ixion
£42 of each goes to paying off tooling/production costs
£21 went to Dapol for design/distribution/service
£21 retained profit (to actually pay for all the actual work they did)

which wasn't sustainable even when they had no retail trade in the middle.

The numbers look better the higher volume you do but that's shifting bit by bit also - the percentage wise the cost of per unit assembly (the cost that doesn't go down much with volume) is going up and up.

Add into that the fact that as prices rise volumes fall and I think its a fair bet that we'll see much higher prices, far less new models, and more reliveries.

At some point 3D print will get good enough to really begin to change the rules as well.

In time I'm sure £200-250 will be the normal price for a loco, but on the bright side - as the prices begin to equalize it begins to make sense to build them back in Europe.

Alan

Alan

You have hit the nail on the head!

One of the other partners in Ixon who I know quite well gave me similar figures.

Basically, the only costs that decrease with volume are the development, financial and die costs as these are amortised over the number of units produced.  Everything else, as you have said, remains pretty well the same.

Some of the savings we have been experiencing in the recent past, apart from cheaper Asian labour costs, has been due to changes in technology in the use of CAD and spark etched erosion to cut the dies.

Unfortunately, the model railway market is shrinking the hobby will not be able to take continued advantage of these savings.  We will probably also see a consolidation in the number of manufacturers who will produce only models with a large enough volume to make it worthwhile.

Probably also most people would not be aware that the Chinese Yuan is appreciating against other currencies thereby increasing the cost to the consumer.

I am looking forward to the 3D revolution.  Where's the barricade?

Kind regards

Geoff

[EtchedPixels]

3D print is only half the story - at least for locos - you can't 3D print motors

The barriers I'm aware of when doing 3D kit stuff are

- you can currently have high surface quality (eg the Bachmann EPs they put on display now and then), or sort of affordable but not both yet.

- colour printing is very limited in terms of strength and quality. There isn't a material that can be accurately coloured and printed in fine detail. Nobody yet has built a hybrid 3D print/surface printing machine although in theory it might be possible

- Multi-material printing is not generally available so you still have some assembly work to do. That is currently amplified by the fact you need different materials for detail and for strength.

It's only part of the story however - very small "home CNC" is becoming more and more practical and also fill some of the gaps.

If we get to the point where you can 3D print a model to good standards in the right basic colours it begins to get somewhere. Before the advent of the modern pad printers it was usual to print a lot of models in the right colour plastic for each part and then fit them together. For many liveries (BR blue, maroon, etc) that's a actually a good basis and then needs fairly limited decal work, or pad printing that is on a flattish surface and easy to do.

From a technology perspective using 3D printing and a few other processes today you could 3D print the equivalent of the pre Blue-Ribband Farish Mark 1 coaches except for the wheels and coupling mounts to about the same standard, and in the UK you could print the sides although you might struggle to find someone who can get quite the fineness the late China production has.

Unfortunately the price at the moment would be a vastly too high.

It's slowly changing - 3D print has passed white metal for small roof details like ventilators, and it'll keep improving.


The plastic moulders are also doing things to cut costs - from going back to moulded on handrails to using more machinery for the job. If you look at the later Bachmann models it appears they are at least partly assembled now using some kind of pick and place machinery. They use lots of very small mouldings that must have been machine fitted to meet the pricing. Count the number of mouldings on the voyager for example remembering each internal seat is a separate part!

There are some other things going on as well in terms of producing cheaper moulds for plastic and combining 3D print mastering with other techniques.

My guess is that as with just about everything else no one technology will be the whole answer. Even today RTR "plastic" locos are a mix of multiple plastics, turned brass, etched metal, die cast parts etc.

Alan

[mr bachmann]

Model Power MFG

this should put you through to the Model Power factory China, making plane kits  ....
there is also a vidd on train manufacture if you can find it

[Rabs]

3D print is only half the story - at least for locos - you can't 3D print motors

...yet!  Give it another 10-20 years.

Agree with your points though.  I believe that for kits we are already pretty much at the point where 3D printing is displacing white metal and resin.  It's also not too far from challenging etched metal for fine detail.

RTR is another game entirely though, as you say.  Until there is a machine which can avoid expensive assembly and painting costs 3D printing won't offer much of a benefit over existing methods.