Is Trump's trade war against China likely to have an effect on model railways in Europe?

Will the Chinese factories give priority to their European customers ?

Can we look forward to :

- shorter lead times for new products/re-runs ?
- more livery options ?
- wider availability of items in short supply e.g. coaches in certain liveries ?

Happy Easter !

If us UK and European modellers benefit from DTs tarifs then it may be at least one posative from all the negatives. Fingers crossed!

Trump is like a yo-yo on everything! if he can't bully the outcome he wants straight away he backs out!
He's left Gaza in a mess and threatening to do the same to Ukraine!

I'm not expecting anything settled for some time on the tariffs as there's growing opposition in the USA to his actions and he could get more agro from his own people to soften the levels of 'penalties' they will feel.

China will move quicker to protect the employment of its people and I suspect we'll see trade deals between them and many countries happen. We in uk are free agents and could get a beneficial outcome which might help our brands like Dapol, Hornby and possibly Peco. If the EU can get a China deal then Bachman/ GF could benefit.

China needs to keeep up its levels of trading so if it "looses" the USA I'm sure it will go after other significant markets which means Europe.

Regardless of whether tariffs on goods going into the US are removed or not the genie is out of the bottle now. It seems reasonable that manufacturers would prioritise stable markets so we may well see a quicker turn around on models, electronics etc from China and elsewhere.
Cheers Colin

It's nigh on impossible to keep politics out of this thread but to avoid it being pulled I really suggest personal comments about individuals are abstained from.
Thank you

There is a danger that if factories in china loose their base loads of production that they could go out of business or have to charge more for the business they still have.

So engineered plastics (like our trains) could cost more.

UK model railways may very well benefit, but North American model railways certainly won't. Most NA gear (I'd say 80%+ as a guess) is manufactured in China so a 154% tariff on these items  coming into the US will more than double their price since I understand that the tariff is applied to retail value. So, a doubling or so of the cost of buying model railways in the US!! What's that going to do to the hobby there?

Hi,

There's an article by Jason Schron of Rapido about this in Trains magazine.

Tariffs are NOT levied on the retail price but the price the wholesaler or distributor pays for the goods, he explained that Rapido have a warehouse in the US and it will be cheaper to ship from China to their US warehouse than it would be to ship to Canada and then sell goods to the US.

And while you're all rubbing your hands with glee spare a thought for us in the US wondering what the price will be when stuff ships from the UK. 

John P

Regards,

John P

John,

I'm certainly not rubbing my hands with glee. In fact, quite the opposite. Stuff shipped from China to Canada (or to the UK) and then shipped on to the US will be subject to the 145% tariff as the origin of the goods was China.

I think if this tariff sticks, then it will have major implications for the health of model railroading in the US. Canadian modellers also need to be very concerned when the viability of the Chinese manufacture of North American prototype becomes an issue.

And, you are right John. The tariff is levied on the declared value of goods before it enters the US; that is, the tariff is also levied on the shipping cost.

Webbo 

I don't know but I assume most track sold in the USA is made in China. This could be good for Peco as their track will attract a lower tariff when it is shipped to the USA.

I suspect for those living in the USA, near the Canadian border, trips to Canada for some shopping will happen..

Quote from: The Q on April 26, 2025, 06:46:27 PMI suspect for those living in the USA, near the Canadian border, trips to Canada for some shopping will happen..

That's highly unlikely.

Before this all started it was far cheaper to buy UK outline stuff and Peco track from UK retailers and pay for shipping, the few suppliers in the US and Canada already had pretty hefty mark-ups.

e.g. a box of Peco flex track at Fifer Hobby is $232.99, the same box from Rails of Sheffield is $153.05. Even with international shipping and a 10% tariff it's still better to buy from Rails.

Regards,

John P

Quote from: The Q on April 26, 2025, 06:46:27 PMI suspect for those living in the USA, near the Canadian border, trips to Canada for some shopping will happen..

Prices in Canada have always been a lot more expensive so a trip north of the border wouldn't be that appealing even with tarifs being applied, not to mention the fact that our relationship with our southern neighbours is far frostier than is getting reported outside Canada right now. I'm seeing far fewer us licence plates than normal for this time of year and visits from Canadians to the us have cratered.

The other issue is that we don't have that many brick and mortar stores and most Americans don't live anywhere near the border, even if they do, they are still unlikely to be close to a store.  Somewhere like George's model trains in Toronto is still 160km from the closest border crossing.  Unless you've live here its really hard to appreciate how simply vast Canada is

Given the US don't pay UK VAT it'll probably still be cheaper for them to buy from the UK than it is for us!