Electric Cars 2030 What Will Yours sound Like?

[chrism]

Not to mention the fact that an electric vehicle will save you a huge amount in both fuel and maintenance costs over that time. Electric cars typically save 75% on the cost per mile compared to petrol cars.

Until Revenue & Customs work out how to replace the fuel duty that they'd no longer be receiving 

[njee20]

Tax the electricity on dedicated chargers. Would still be cheaper than filling with petrol.

I have to agree with Karhedron here (and I'm a bit of a petrol head), there are a lot of nonsense reasons not to go to EVs, but few have substance.

[Yet_Another]

I'm with @Karhedron - full scream Valenta. I don't know anything about the legislation around electric car design, I guess there are safety issues to be addresses around the batteries, but surely the range problem would be solved by plugging another battery in the boot?

[Newportnobby]

Not to mention the fact that an electric vehicle will save you a huge amount in both fuel and maintenance costs over that time. Electric cars typically save 75% on the cost per mile compared to petrol cars.

Until Revenue & Customs work out how to replace the fuel duty that they'd no longer be receiving 

Exactly. No government can afford to lose the fuel duty income and are hardly likely to allow power companies to make all the profit on the extra electricity consumption nationwide so chances are the duty will transfer to electricity use and/or the remaining petrol/diesel consumers will be heavily punished tax wise for not moving to EVs.
I've heard no mention at all about motorcycles so wonder what will happen to those like me who have one. The only electric ones I've seen do just one lap (37¾ miles) of the Isle of Man TT course and, as far as I'm aware, no other development has/is taking place.
Mind you, having said I'm not likely to be using a car come 2030, I'm hardly likely to be swinging my leg over a 650cc Kawasaki (but we'll see)

[PLD]

but surely the range problem would be solved by plugging another battery in the boot?

Longer journeys for me frequently include a large/bulky load (e.g. a model railway layout!) If the boot is filled with batteries, either a roof box or trailer would be required for the load, increasing power consumption and negating the presence of the extra batteries...

[Mr Sprue]

I suppose for the short term to extend the range for a car that is only powered by battery's, is to carry a Honda generator in the boot! 

[guest311]

would that be
petrol
diesel
plug in hybrid

[thebrighton]

Not to mention the fact that an electric vehicle will save you a huge amount in both fuel and maintenance costs over that time. Electric cars typically save 75% on the cost per mile compared to petrol cars. Maintenance savings are even bigger typically saving around 89% per year simply because EVs have far fewer moving parts.

This means that over the lifetime of a battery, you will have saved far more than the cost of the battery and EV price premium put together thanks to the lower running costs.

You are making a lot of assumptions claiming 'huge amounts will be saved. I will base my 'assumptions' on the Skoda Citigo as it's what I drive and I looked at the electric version when it was launched. First up is the purchase price which even for the lower spec of the 2 options was around £7k (85%) more than its petrol equivalent. Servicing was also very comparable. Still had to be done annually and still needed brakes, fluids, lights tires etc looking at as well as checking the high voltage components etc so only a few quid different.
Moving on to actually driving it sure, it's cheaper to top up with electricity, but you would have to do a considerable number of miles to cover the extra £7k paid for it. Indeed, I don't think you ever would especially if the government introduced new taxes to reclaim that lost on petrol. Added to that is poor range especially in the winter and the time taken to top up so the tick boxes in the pro column were very sparse.
Like I said earlier prices would need to seriously drop in line with petrol prices, infastructure would have to massively improve as would range. If I go for a drive I don't want the nagging doubt in the back of my mind of will I make it to the next public charging point before it ran flat.....
You mention how much you would save over the lifetime of the battery but how many people realistically keep a car that long or will people have to forgo the 3 year turnover many follow.

[Karhedron]

For those concerned about long distance journeys, how far do you drive before taking a break? I normally need take a break after about 2 hours of driving (140 miles). Even if your concentration is twice as good as mine, you will still need to stop for a break after around 280 miles.

A top-of-the-range Tesla has a range of 360 miles. That means you will need to stop before the car does. A high speed Tesla charger will recharge this car in about 45 minutes which is about the same amount of time you will need to have a coffee, a sandwich and a visit to the loo. I doubt many people drive for 300+ miles, stop for just 5 minutes to put petrol in the tank and then drive another 300 miles.

That means we have production cars and chargers available right now that meet the needs of even the longest distance drivers. The Tesla will get you from Aberdeen to Penzance with only one intermediate 45 minute recharge. Is there really anyone who needs more than that?

OK, the Tesla is currently a top-spec machine and those high-speed chargers can be in high demand at the moment. But the Tesla is not the most expensive EV on the market by any stretch. Look at how far EV technology has come in the last 5 years. I am pretty confident that 5 years time, that sort of performance will be standard rather than top-tier.

[Karhedron]

You are making a lot of assumptions claiming 'huge amounts will be saved. I will base my 'assumptions' on the Skoda Citigo as it's what I drive and I looked at the electric version when it was launched. First up is the purchase price which even for the lower spec of the 2 options was around £7k (85%) more than its petrol equivalent. Servicing was also very comparable. Still had to be done annually and still needed brakes, fluids, lights tires etc looking at as well as checking the high voltage components etc so only a few quid different.

It is not sundries that make up major costs. I have had to make 2 expensive gearbox repairs to our large car while we have owned it. There would be no such expense on a EV as they don't have gearboxes. There are on average 20 moving parts in an electric engine compared to 2000 in an ICE. That is an awful lot less to go wrong and a lot fewer part to experience wear.

Check out this article on a US taxi company that switched to EVs. They made big savings on maintenance as well as fuels costs. I am not making assumptions, I am looking at real-world examples.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/23/500000-miles-in-a-tesla-whats-the-result/

Moving on to actually driving it sure, it's cheaper to top up with electricity, but you would have to do a considerable number of miles to cover the extra £7k paid for it. Indeed, I don't think you ever would especially if the government introduced new taxes to reclaim that lost on petrol. Added to that is poor range especially in the winter and the time taken to top up so the tick boxes in the pro column were very sparse.

OK, let's assume a typical drive of 10,000 miles a year. Not accurate for everyone of course but that is the default annual mileage that most insurers start with. The Citigo is pretty frugal with a quoted 55mpg so that is 182 gallons per year costing around £900. Electricity to do the same mileage in the EV version will set you back £200-£250 so saving you around £700 per year. That means you will recoup the price difference between the ICE and EV versions in around 10 years of average driving.

Now in fact it is better than that because you are comparing list prices while the UK currently still have a £3000 govt grant for switching to an EV meaning that you will break even in 7 years.

Like I said earlier prices would need to seriously drop in line with petrol prices, infastructure would have to massively improve as would range. If I go for a drive I don't want the nagging doubt in the back of my mind of will I make it to the next public charging point before it ran flat.....

Prices are dropping. Estimates suggest that EVs will reach price parity with ICEs within the next 5 years. For the issue of range, read my post above (although I grant it is considering a tesla rather than a Citigo).

You mention how much you would save over the lifetime of the battery but how many people realistically keep a car that long or will people have to forgo the 3 year turnover many follow.

I have been driving for over 25 years and I have never kept a car for less than 8 years. If someone can afford to buy a new car every 3 years then they can absorb the current price difference between ICE and EV by stretching that a year or so. My current family car is 15 years old and my little runabout that I use for commuting is 12 years old.

[thebrighton]

It is not sundries that make up major costs. I have had to make 2 expensive gearbox repairs to our large car while we have owned it. There would be no such expense on a EV as they don't have gearboxes. There are on average 20 moving parts in an electric engine compared to 2000 in an ICE. That is an awful lot less to go wrong and a lot fewer part to experience wear.

And I have never had anything expensive go wrong in over 35 years of driving so irrelevant. Is there really less to go wrong? Most parts that need replacing are tires, brakes, fluids etc which will still need replacing at the same intervals on an electric car. You mention gearboxes, just wait until the battery goes wrong.

OK, let's assume a typical drive of 10,000 miles a year. Not accurate for everyone of course but that is the default annual mileage that most insurers start with. The Citigo is pretty frugal with a quoted 55mpg so that is 182 gallons per year costing around £900. Electricity to do the same mileage in the EV version will set you back £200-£250 so saving you around £700 per year. That means you will recoup the price difference between the ICE and EV versions in around 10 years of average driving.

So, again, you're basing your assumptions on the government not levying a tax on electricity use for cars which is extremely unlikely to happen and that I am going to keep the car for 10 years. Just how many people actually do that so, again, irrelevant figures/comparison to justify an electric car.

Now in fact it is better than that because you are comparing list prices while the UK currently still have a £3000 govt grant for switching to an EV meaning that you will break even in 7 years.

No, I was looking at prices after the £3k govt grant which is the prices Skoda quote so, again, incorrect assumptions

Prices are dropping. Estimates suggest that EVs will reach price parity with ICEs within the next 5 years. For the issue of range, read my post above (although I grant it is considering a tesla rather than a Citigo).

So you are basing facts on estimates? Please stop using the irrelevant Tesla as your base for everything, it is irrelevant to most road users. When Skoda introduced the electric Citigo (also SEAT and VW) it wasn't a new car, it was an old car with just an engine change and a massive hike in price. No idea what prices are dropping unless you mean the Tesla.

I have been driving for over 25 years and I have never kept a car for less than 8 years. If someone can afford to buy a new car every 3 years then they can absorb the current price difference between ICE and EV by stretching that a year or so. My current family car is 15 years old and my little runabout that I use for commuting is 12 years old.

So you aren't the average car owner then so you will probably be able to justify it but all your arguments are based on assumptions, incorrect info and a propensity to never change your car.

From your other post:

For those concerned about long distance journeys, how far do you drive before taking a break? I normally need take a break after about 2 hours of driving (140 miles). Even if your concentration is twice as good as mine, you will still need to stop for a break after around 280 miles.

A top-of-the-range Tesla has a range of 360 miles. That means you will need to stop before the car does. A high speed Tesla charger will recharge this car in about 45 minutes which is about the same amount of time you will need to have a coffee, a sandwich and a visit to the loo. I doubt many people drive for 300+ miles, stop for just 5 minutes to put petrol in the tank and then drive another 300 miles.

That means we have production cars and chargers available right now that meet the needs of even the longest distance drivers. The Tesla will get you from Aberdeen to Penzance with only one intermediate 45 minute recharge. Is there really anyone who needs more than that?

OK, the Tesla is currently a top-spec machine and those high-speed chargers can be in high demand at the moment. But the Tesla is not the most expensive EV on the market by any stretch. Look at how far EV technology has come in the last 5 years. I am pretty confident that 5 years time, that sort of performance will be standard rather than top-tier.

Yep, you should take a break when driving but I don't want to arrive at a service station which may or may not have food/toilet facilities and hope there is an available charging point. Like I mentioned earlier a couple of 'colleagues' parked and plugged in their Tesla's at the NEC and returned to them over 12 hours alter meaning no one could charge their cars in all that time.
By 2030 things may have well changed but they need to change dramatically. Electric cars are well out of the price range of most drivers and they are inconvenient especially for all those people that can't park their car outside their house to plug it in.

As things stand there is no way you will ever convince me that electric cars are viable unless things change dramatically and throwing incorrect facts around and basing an argument on a car out of reach of most people just doesn't wash, sorry.

Conversation over, bye.

[njee20]

Crikey. That escalated quickly. I don't see any issue with Karhedron's points. He's said he's using generalised examples, to flatly dismiss his points because they don't apply specifically to you seems flawed.

Ive had a few large-ish repair bills over the years, always on items an EV wouldn't have.

The Citigo is always going to be a slightly awkward example because it's a very cheap car. The VW ID 3 is similarly priced to a mid-range Golf.

[guest311]

possibly time for a time out on this,

before it becomes a case of handbags at dawn in the car park.

and that is from someone who is known for his 'why use a taser if you have a Sterling' attitude 

[thebrighton]

Crikey. That escalated quickly. I don't see any issue with Karhedron's points. He's said he's using generalised examples, to flatly dismiss his points because they don't apply specifically to you seems flawed.

Ive had a few large-ish repair bills over the years, always on items an EV wouldn't have.

The Citigo is always going to be a slightly awkward example because it's a very cheap car. The VW ID 3 is similarly priced to a mid-range Golf.

If someone wants to dissect a post of mine and try to disprove everything by using generalisations based on one very expensive car and a whole heap of assumptions as fact I will respond. As for flatly dismissing his points you obviously didn't notice a lot of his points were based around things specific to him (gearboxes, times car kept for etc) and my responses were in no way just limited to myself so flawed you say?
How is a Citigo being one of the most affordable electric cars qualify it as a slightly awkward example whilst a Tesla which most will never afford is fine to discuss? Surely it, along with its SEAT and VW counterparts, is far more relevant to the discussion rather than too cheap so dismiss it?

Electric cars will always be a hot topic for discussion as long as facts are used.

[njee20]

I didn't read it is as dissecting your post, and he gave general examples rather than opinion based, but I won't tell you how to feel.

Last expensive repair (relatively - £600) was the inlet manifold sensor. Prior was the clutch (different car). I'd suggest you're extremely unusual if, in 35 years, you've never had a major repair to any engine/gearbox components. Yes ok you still need fluids/brakes/tyres etc, but there's no too much that's eye wateringly expensive in there.

Don't get me wrong, like I say, I'm not clamouring to have an EV, but I didn't read anything unreasonable.