N Gauge Forum

General Category => N Gauge Discussion => Topic started by: guest311 on April 23, 2016, 12:17:14 PM

Title: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 23, 2016, 12:17:14 PM
I was having a trawl through Hattons website, well SWMBO was out at the time, and came across these,
firstly available now

http://www.ehattons.com/52958/Graham_Farish_377_101B_90_Tonne_glw_JGA_Bogie_Hopper_Buxton_Lime_Industries_/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/52958/Graham_Farish_377_101B_90_Tonne_glw_JGA_Bogie_Hopper_Buxton_Lime_Industries_/StockDetail.aspx)

then these as pre-order

http://www.ehattons.com/182072/Graham_Farish_377_100B_90T_GLW_bogie_hopper_in_RMC_weathered/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/182072/Graham_Farish_377_100B_90T_GLW_bogie_hopper_in_RMC_weathered/StockDetail.aspx)

http://www.ehattons.com/182073/Graham_Farish_377_103_90T_GLW_bogie_hopper_in_VTG_weathered/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/182073/Graham_Farish_377_103_90T_GLW_bogie_hopper_in_VTG_weathered/StockDetail.aspx)

the first at £19.98 is not weathered, and the other two at £28.01 are, but that is still nearly a 50% price difference.

how long before the price rises either stop people from buying, or make it cheaper to manufacture in UK ?

as for rakes of these ...

http://www.ehattons.com/52917/Graham_Farish_373_235_Bulk_grain_bogie_hopper_wagon_Traffic_Services_weathered/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/52917/Graham_Farish_373_235_Bulk_grain_bogie_hopper_wagon_Traffic_Services_weathered/StockDetail.aspx)

I doubt we'll see many layouts running rakes at that price.

alan
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 23, 2016, 12:28:07 PM
Market forces will apply, if they're too dear they won't sell
unless you really want them and have stacks of cash.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NinOz on April 23, 2016, 01:19:42 PM
"how long before the price rises either stop people from buying, or make it cheaper to manufacture in UK ?"

Never and never.


"I doubt we'll see many layouts running rakes at that price."

Well don't need many for a long train.  How many 5-plank wagons equals one of them?
CFJ
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: mr bachmann on April 23, 2016, 03:13:05 PM
this morning was I offered in the local shop a Farish Inspection Saloon at £39=95 ???
now the shop owner moans business is slow   :D
needles to say its still on the shelf.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 23, 2016, 03:21:29 PM
mine arrived from Liverpool, after much soul searching, at £33.96

http://www.ehattons.com/107777/Graham_Farish_374_877_LMS_50ft_Inspection_Saloon_Blue_Grey/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/107777/Graham_Farish_374_877_LMS_50ft_Inspection_Saloon_Blue_Grey/StockDetail.aspx)

other versions available.

our nearest model shop is Uckfield,  a few miles away, which means SWMBO would want to come as well .....
and shop ......
and have coffee ......
and then shop some more .......

cheaper to get it from Liverpool and get the postie to hide put it in the safe place  :)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 23, 2016, 03:33:28 PM
The price rises by the time the RTR NGS models hit the retail shops for non-members to buy make it even more of an incentive to get them when first offered to members if it's an item you think you'll want.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Dorsetmike on April 23, 2016, 04:06:41 PM
At least we don't have quite the same problem that much of retail trade has - commonly referred to as "Shrinkflation" where packages get smaller and price stays the same or increases, examples

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=shrinkflation+examples&biw=1275&bih=570&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjgtczng6XMAhWDSRoKHdx8A2MQsAQILw#imgrc=U7ScNvlf-kjNlM%3A (https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=shrinkflation+examples&biw=1275&bih=570&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjgtczng6XMAhWDSRoKHdx8A2MQsAQILw#imgrc=U7ScNvlf-kjNlM%3A)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 23, 2016, 04:13:11 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 23, 2016, 12:17:14 PM

how long before the price rises either stop people from buying, or make it cheaper to manufacture in UK ?


I suspect, like me, many folks have curbed their spending already, Alan, and that until we take a stand en masse and stick 2 fingers up to the manufacturers in protest (choose your model to target), prices will continue to rise, the market will shrink and, rather than bring manufacturing back to Blighty, they will say the market is not big enough to warrant carrying on with.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 23, 2016, 04:25:19 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on April 23, 2016, 04:13:11 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 23, 2016, 12:17:14 PM

how long before the price rises either stop people from buying, or make it cheaper to manufacture in UK ?


I suspect, like me, many folks have curbed their spending already, Alan, and that until we take a stand en masse and stick 2 fingers up to the manufacturers in protest (choose your model to target), prices will continue to rise, the market will shrink and, rather than bring manufacturing back to Blighty, they will say the market is not big enough to warrant carrying on with.

Manufacturing won't come back to Blighty until it costs less to make them here (i.e. lower wages, taxes etc.) than it does in China. The actual shipping part of the cost is relatively negligible.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 23, 2016, 04:29:10 PM
and of course manufacturing is a dirty word these days.
if you can't sit at a desk on a computer, it seems no one wants the job.

long gone are the days when we actually made things.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 23, 2016, 04:53:35 PM
UM still make things and their prices are relatively stable. As do Peco.
What happened to Dave Jones models have any hit the shelves?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NeMo on April 23, 2016, 05:05:30 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 23, 2016, 04:29:10 PM
and of course manufacturing is a dirty word these days.
if you can't sit at a desk on a computer, it seems no one wants the job.
It's not that manufacturing is a dirty word; it's that manufacturing actually is dirty. Folks who bemoan the lack of steel works or whatever rarely want to live next door to one, in much the same way as everyone regretted the passing of steam locos in the 1960s but actually getting anyone to work on them was becoming increasingly difficult.

Of course I do agree with you that not everyone can be a web designer or stock trader! I do think that in the UK the "dignity of labour" and blue collar jobs been denigrated for so long, in part by idiotic unions bent on political power and in part by governments overanxious to promote white collar jobs above all others. It's a particular shame because a lot of the young lads I've taught over the years are physically adept but not particularly mentally strong or even all that self disciplined, and a unionised, labour-based job would have suited them much better than some tedious backroom activity at a warehouse or supermarket or whatever.

Quote from: class37025 on April 23, 2016, 04:29:10 PM
long gone are the days when we actually made things.

In Britain at least we have a robust manufacturing industry, but a very focussed one. Chemicals, aeronautics, and, bizarrely it might seem, motor cars (or more specifically, bits of them, then shipped around the world). Did you know the value of manufacturing in the UK is greater than it was in the 1950s? Of course, despite contributing more to the national economy, manufacturing doesn't employ nearly so many people. And that, I think, is why people sometimes think, incorrectly, manufacturing isn't a major part of the UK economy.

Cheers, NeMo
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Izzy on April 23, 2016, 05:17:13 PM
I think that possibly the biggest danger is that of dissuading people from entering or returning to modelling. Those of us already engaged in it will mostly cut back and make do with what we have got or only buy what we can't do without. Like others I have simply stopped buying as I have more than enough for my needs and additional bits would just be pure indulgence in the sense I don't need them to operate my layout fully, I aready have more than enough.

However, if the current price levels had existed when I returned to modelling a few years ago after a decade long break, well I probably wouldn't have. I would have looked at them with the eyes of someone outside the hobby as I did back then and judged them accordingly. Then I thought they were quite expensive but affordable for what I wanted to achieve. Now I would think that someone was having a laugh and do something else.

Izzy


Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: d-a-n on April 23, 2016, 06:30:43 PM
If the prices for N gauge continue to rise, I'll just have to buy a bigger house and have an OO gauge layout as the OO stuff tends to be marginally cheaper with a greater variety of high quality secondhand stock.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on April 23, 2016, 06:31:41 PM
Izzy, you have said pretty much what I said in a previous thread on the question of price rises. We are singing from the same sheet!

There will always be those who can afford pretty much whatever.

There will always be those who will go without what most consider essentials, to get their model/s. This point was made to me by by a member of staff at KMRC. He gave several examples.

There will always be people who for whatever reason have to limit or curtail their spending on model trains. The levels of price increases the last few years will surely increase their numbers?

To reiterate, I am so glad I have amassed a lot of stuff over the last 10 or so years. With covered vans hitting the £15 ish mark I would look at the hobby differently if starting from scratch.
I imagine that many people (myself included) have become much more focussed on what they purchase. On a whim purchases are now a rarity for me. I am also a bit sceptical regarding the levels of price increases from Bachmann, and it would be interesting to see their sales figures since the raft of year on year increases.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 23, 2016, 06:48:02 PM
I agree. Your comments certainly resonate with me. My purchases are more carefully planned these days, I still do buy the odd impulse purchase but usually where the price attracts me. I have more than sufficient numbers of very recent locos and stock, anything I do plan to buy these days is because it fits with my modelling era/area and is nice to have.

I do not begrudge the Chinese workers a proper living wage but since that increase is only one small part of the cost of the model (at the factory gate) I have always failed to see how it alone equates to the inflation smashing rises we have seen. I suspect it is far more complex and starts at the Parent company Kader Industries...

Roy


Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 23, 2016, 06:52:45 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 23, 2016, 06:48:02 PM
I agree. Your comments certainly resonate with me. My purchases are more carefully planned these days, I still do buy the odd impulse purchase but usually where the price attracts me. I have more than sufficient numbers of very recent locos and stock, anything I do plan to buy these days is because it fits with my modelling era/area and is nice to have.

I do not begrudge the Chinese workers a proper living wage but since that increase is only one small part of the cost of the model (at the factory gate) I have always failed to see how it alone equates to the inflation smashing rises we have seen. I suspect it is far more complex and starts at the Parent company Kader Industries...

Roy
Over the last 6 months or so I have been buying more 2nd hand stock on ebay from the likes of Rails of Sheffield. There have been a number of nearly new items at good prices and I have not yet had a duff purchase. Rails also offer a limited period warranty on ebay items and they have all been tested (unlike new locos) before sale.
Also there are bargains and special offers to be had from many of the retailers - often highlighted on this forum. Take my recent purchase of a 5MT for £69.50
If prices keep increasing then I will continue to purchase bargains and 2nd hand good value items rather than paying the ever increasing prices for new stock.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on April 23, 2016, 07:02:26 PM
Another thread refers to announced Farish sets being seemingly cancelled. Hattons are sending out emails pretty much to this effect.

Not gloating at all, but could this be rationalisation due to a drop "overall" in sales since the price hikes?  I wonder.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: elmo on April 23, 2016, 07:20:25 PM
I have cancelled two pre-orders due mainly to cost. IF and I mean IF Farish and Dapol can make locos that actually work then cost would be less of a consideration but I have sent too many locos back and had too many failures (either total or minor functions e.g. lights etc) after only a couple of years and relatively minor use.
I am not prepared to pay for the low quality crap that is being manufactured.
Modern locos - look nice but don't go.

Elmo (less n gauge and more live steam sm32 these days)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 23, 2016, 07:25:29 PM
Quote from: elmo on April 23, 2016, 07:20:25 PM
I have cancelled two pre-orders due mainly to cost. IF and I mean IF Farish and Dapol can make locos that actually work then cost would be less of a consideration but I have sent too many locos back and had too many failures (either total or minor functions e.g. lights etc) after only a couple of years and relatively minor use.
I am not prepared to pay for the low quality crap that is being manufactured.
Modern locos - look nice but don't go.

Elmo (less n gauge and more live steam sm32 these days)
I'm afraid I have to agree about the frequent poor quality especially with the elevated prices.
I would have hoped increased prices would have come hand in hand with better quality.
One reason I've started buying 2nd hand but tested stock.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: port perran on April 23, 2016, 07:50:29 PM
I too think VERY carefully about buying new locos and stock now.
The price has now risen too high and for me has gone past the boundary of what is realistic.  Luckily I have a good fleet of locomotives already. There are several on the horizon which I would like but I will be VERY picky in what I buy.
Are we taking detail too seriously  and paying the price ?
I don't need absolute detail (for one thing I can't see it!). I'm happy with the rugged simplicity and the reliability of Union Mills locomotives (at VERY affordable prices).  Made in the Isle of Man by the way.
I'm also happy with Peco wagons by and large. OK they lack the detail (and in many cases the authenticity) but they are priced sensibly.
How about GF and Dapol following the Hornby (00) Railroad route offering less detailed locos and stock at lower prices ?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Irish Padre on April 23, 2016, 08:21:07 PM
One answer can be going Japanese as I've done. High quality locos under £50- and carriages with tail lights for under £15. Not everyone's cup of tea (or sake) I know but it's worked for me. And it's all designed to be packed away and taken out again easily in those wonderful bookcase style boxes.....
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 23, 2016, 08:31:51 PM
Quote from: Irish Padre on April 23, 2016, 08:21:07 PM
One answer can be going Japanese as I've done. High quality locos under £50- and carriages with tail lights for under £15. Not everyone's cup of tea (or sake) I know but it's worked for me. And it's all designed to be packed away and taken out again easily in those wonderful bookcase style boxes.....
Like many people though - I need British steam and early diesel. I'd be more than pleased if the Japanese manufacturers entered this market.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Irish Padre on April 23, 2016, 08:45:22 PM
Yes, I know what you mean - my dream layout would be either 1930s Southern or 1950s LMR. But I can't have a permanent or even storable layout board. Japanese practice means my entire layout packs away into plastic boxes each time - and I can rely on the locos to work. It's not for everyone but for me it's the trade off between running Kato stock or running nothing at all! The main thing is that whatever we run,  :NGaugersRule:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Mito on April 23, 2016, 09:44:16 PM
In my motley collection of locos I have one new one.I can't afford new of anything now. But because of the new model price hikes second hand prices are rising, so where do I go?  :(
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Kris on April 24, 2016, 08:53:25 AM
I think that we are already seeing the results of the price rises in the comparative lack of new models being announced.
Looking back a few years we would expect manufactures to tell us their new models pipe dreams, and we'd see several new loco's coaches and wagons, now we get one loco and maybe a wagon or a coach along with a few new decorations to existing models. Some of this will be down to an ever diminishing number of unmodelled items but I suspect that a lot of it has to do with the manufactures not wanting to have to much new product diluting the sales of existing models.

I'm expecting prices to rise further, however not by the large amounts that we have already seen.

Will this mean that we see fewer large mainline layouts, possibly, the cost of stocking these has always been high but now it's astronomical. If I look at the fiddle yard for my layout (6 roads) and tot up the cost, it's well into 4 figures (based on RRP a 10 coach express + loco is £430 ish). Looking at all the stock that I have it rises significantly (very scary, best not tell the other half).
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: deibid on April 24, 2016, 09:15:41 AM
My view on this..unfortunately this hobby is in its last years. It will die as soon as this last generation of modelers die. It may sound pessimistic or sad... it is both, more realistic than pesimistic. I am 43, when my father started on the hobby  I was 6, back in that day it was expensive but my father could afford it among many other things like raising a 3 children family by his own.
Now I struggle to build a tiny layout all with second hand stock from ebay and cheap chinese supplies. Back in Spain I wouldn´t even dream of doing this... it has taken a good job in the UK , clearly above the average level, for me to TRY and do something...using all second hand and the stock I preserved from the 70s. New stock is still a dream for me... no point in going there, with an above average salary I CANT afford it. That should be telling you something.
To worsen things... I received a new locomotive as a birthday present... made in china...quite pricey... WHAT A LEMON!! I had to return it immediately.
That´s why I can´t be optimistic about this hobby´s future. If someone like me can´t afford it then it´s dead... in the sense that the ones that should be the main focus of the market just can´t afford it.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 24, 2016, 09:27:16 AM
Quote from: Kris on April 24, 2016, 08:53:25 AM

I'm expecting prices to rise further, however not by the large amounts that we have already seen.


I wouldn't bank on that, Kris. To the best of my knowledge we still have 2 years to run on the Chinese government's insistence that wages rise by 20% per year. Rather than just apply this increase to the labour proportion of the overall cost, the manufacturers have used it to inflict inflation busting price increases on us.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on April 24, 2016, 09:30:44 AM
As I have grown older and experienced more, I have become increasingly cynical. As Dorset Mike indicated the food industry often combine a price rise with a reduction in the size/weight of the product. Two price rises. The rises from Bachmann have been quite eye watering, with a rise accompanied by expect more of the same next year. I hope that the price rises have been down to purely the reasons given, and they have not used the situation to load in some extra profit. Recent posts on this thread have indicated that several, possibly many people have cut back on their purchases. Port Perran said prices have reached a level whereby he is now very selective about any purchases. There is a limit to what people "across the board" will pay, so eventually year on year price rises will surely lead to a drop in sales. A possible own goal IF they have built in some extra profit on the back of increased production costs? 
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 24, 2016, 09:32:52 AM
Quote from: austinbob on April 23, 2016, 08:31:51 PM
Quote from: Irish Padre on April 23, 2016, 08:21:07 PM
One answer can be going Japanese as I've done. High quality locos under £50- and carriages with tail lights for under £15. Not everyone's cup of tea (or sake) I know but it's worked for me. And it's all designed to be packed away and taken out again easily in those wonderful bookcase style boxes.....
Like many people though - I need British steam and early diesel. I'd be more than pleased if the Japanese manufacturers entered this market.
:beers:

now there is a thought  :hmmm:

perhaps when sales fall, and of course profits too, companies will look to Japan to manufacture, rather than China.
Bachmann / Farish are of course tied to their Chinese manufacture because of their parent company, but perhaps there might be hope for others to look east and save the hobby.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: B757-236GT on April 24, 2016, 09:37:20 AM
I think one of the other issues is especially in the diesel range is they are running out of mainstream stuff to do, ok there are lots of one offs but some of those havent sold that well in OO so in N its going to be a brave company that comissions ones. I think the other problem is that they have over announced stuff just like they did 10 years ago (remember the OO gauge 166 that took 5 years to get produced!).

In terms of the price rises there is certainly a rising demand for second hand models but in N gauge at least there is hardly any comming on to the market meaning even those prices remain keen. The same is true in OO, i keep a small stock of Airfix/Lima Prairies and replica Panniers. I sell them for around £28 and they sell all day long when you consider a newer bachmann one even secondhand will set you back £45 and new its now £80. I would say at least 35% my sales are now Secondhand, around 50% are accsessories and 15% new coaches and rolling stock.

Richard
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: pctrainman on April 24, 2016, 09:57:01 AM
I spent over 30 years training Apprentices in heavy Engineering and apart from a few who had mostly had their attitudes ruined and their expectations raised too high by having first attended Uni the vast majority were as keen as Mustard to learn and get their hands dirty  , it is a fallacy that todays youth are workshy afraid of a bit of grime or just want to sit at a PC and this as with almost all Fallacies has been perpetrated by the very people that this discussion has been told to ignore , come and live in the real world because if you don't soon start to Wake Up  you'll very soon find that everything of value is gone .
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 10:56:25 AM
Quote from: deibid on April 24, 2016, 09:15:41 AM
My view on this..unfortunately this hobby is in its last years. It will die as soon as this last generation of modelers die. It may sound pessimistic or sad... it is both, more realistic than pesimistic. I am 43, when my father started on the hobby  I was 6, back in that day it was expensive but my father could afford it among many other things like raising a 3 children family by his own.
Now I struggle to build a tiny layout all with second hand stock from ebay and cheap chinese supplies. Back in Spain I wouldn´t even dream of doing this... it has taken a good job in the UK , clearly above the average level, for me to TRY and do something...using all second hand and the stock I preserved from the 70s. New stock is still a dream for me... no point in going there, with an above average salary I CANT afford it. That should be telling you something.
To worsen things... I received a new locomotive as a birthday present... made in china...quite pricey... WHAT A LEMON!! I had to return it immediately.
That´s why I can´t be optimistic about this hobby´s future. If someone like me can´t afford it then it´s dead... in the sense that the ones that should be the main focus of the market just can´t afford it.

I'm not sure I agree that the model railway hobby or even N Gauge specifically is in it's last years but I do agree that the era of it being a cheap hobby with availability of low cost highly detailed models is well and truly over. Where the reasons for this lie is open to debate, my feeling is that a new pricing structure has been imposed on Bachmann Europe to bring prices of UK models more in line with European ones which have always been more expensive. It is an internal company decision - we will never really know the full reason, or whether indeed our models were actually previously being manufactured at a loss.

The impact of these price hikes has most certainly been to damp down demand, by how much who can say - 10%? 20%? Certainly not enough to kill the hobby but sufficient to price some people out completely.

In my view even many years down the line model railways will still continue in all popular scales, even if it is based more around a Society and cottage industry type support. The advent of technologies like 3D printing and enterprising people like Wayne (Finetrax), Alan (Etched Pixcels) etc will ensure this. The wheel may have turned full circle in that scenario but if that does happen railway modellers will still have the means (in my view) to pursue a viable hobby - they may just have to do some modelling!!

Roy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Claude Dreyfus on April 24, 2016, 11:32:06 AM
Quote from: class37025 on April 24, 2016, 09:32:52 AM
Quote from: austinbob on April 23, 2016, 08:31:51 PM
Quote from: Irish Padre on April 23, 2016, 08:21:07 PM
One answer can be going Japanese as I've done. High quality locos under £50- and carriages with tail lights for under £15. Not everyone's cup of tea (or sake) I know but it's worked for me. And it's all designed to be packed away and taken out again easily in those wonderful bookcase style boxes.....
Like many people though - I need British steam and early diesel. I'd be more than pleased if the Japanese manufacturers entered this market.
:beers:

now there is a thought  :hmmm:

perhaps when sales fall, and of course profits too, companies will look to Japan to manufacture, rather than China.
Bachmann / Farish are of course tied to their Chinese manufacture because of their parent company, but perhaps there might be hope for others to look east and save the hobby.

Sadly, that is highly unlikely.

What so many UK modellers fail to acknowledge is that the UK market is really small in comparison. US, German and particularly Japanese models are dealing with a whole different market - Farish may celebrate if they sell 20,000 of a particular model; Kato would cancel it and it would not see the light of day again. US and Japanese model prices are driven by the competiveness of their markets, hence the combination of superior quality and competitive pricing.

Note also that both Tomix and Micro Ace have a lot of their products manufactured in China - MA use the same factory as Bachmann I believe.

In terms of UK pricing; I do not believe it is sustainable in the long-term. The general cost of living is increasing and items such as this are very much luxury goods - even more so if some models are nowhere near up to scratch in terms of reliability and Quality Control.

Alternatives? Well, I would love to see more Japanese layouts and people starting to sample the delights of J-train modelling. Hearing and seeing a lot of reactions at shows and on forums, I suspect a good number would rather stick with what they know and complain about prices, rather than take the plunge and do something different!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: macwales on April 24, 2016, 11:43:15 AM
Hi

I have almost given up on new loco purchases. My layout is British steam in the main. I will in future only buy sale items.

Fed up with poor quality runners (increase in price equals zero increase of chance of getting a good un!)

Fed up with waiting years for promised models to appear.

Fed up with price hikes (way above inflation)  on both locos and rolling stock.

It seems (if the comments on here are anything to go by) that I am not alone. Many seem to be entering the second hand market.

All in all the manufacturers are in a spiral.. Higher prices - less sales - more promises to the future followed by longer waits - higher prices - less sales - .... and so it goes on.

I am pessimistic about where it will all end. £300 for a loco? Even the rich may not pay that!

AH!  .... Who needs a new loco ---- that old one looks good enough going round and round and its a good puller!

All this will never increase the number of British outline n Gauge enthusiasts. But for me Japanese trains?- never.

Cheers

Mac :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Pengi on April 24, 2016, 11:58:49 AM
Quote from: Claude Dreyfus on April 24, 2016, 11:32:06 AM

Alternatives? Well, I would love to see more Japanese layouts and people starting to sample the delights of J-train modelling. Hearing and seeing a lot of reactions at shows and on forums, I suspect a good number would rather stick with what they know and complain about prices, rather than take the plunge and do something different!

Funnily enough, i have become much more interested in Japanese and Continental trains generally since going over to N gauge. The Japanese trains from Kato are very reliable.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 12:25:36 PM
I am the opposite. If I couldn't model British Outline in N I would change scale, continental and American railways do hold my interest but in nothing like the same way.

Roy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 12:44:10 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 12:25:36 PM
I am the opposite. If I couldn't model British Outline in N I would change scale, continental and American railways do hold my interest but in nothing like the same way.

Roy
Likewise Roy. Although I have probably got enough stock to last for years without having to buy any more so my N gauge interest will be held for some time to come. Still keep seeing 'must haves' far too frequently and have to prioritise much more these days cos of the prices. :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 24, 2016, 12:59:38 PM
Hello all,

No one doubts that labour costs in China have risen significantly - as has been quoted previously in the thread this is Government policy there.

Presumably we all accept that the UK N Gauge market (how many modellers?  50,000?) is a tiny fraction of that in, say, the US or Japan.

So if we accept the above, then where does that lead us..?

The labour cost is a multiplying factor in the final cost. 

The basic formula, excluding taxes, is that costs double at each stage.  I don't think this is unreasonable - companies have to make a profit, pay their employees etc.  A 100% mark-up would be considered small in some other markets - catering, for example, where a piece of fish that might cost a restaurant £1 sells for, say, £15.95.

So if it costs X to make a model (materials and labour) then Bachmann pay the factory 2X.  They then charge retailers double this as trade price, ie 4X, and the retailers double this in turn so RRP is 8X.  Let's discount discounts, for now, and that the formulae are a little skewed by taxes, but it's broadly accurate.

Meaning that, if Labour costs increase by Y, then the effect of that in RRP terms is magnified by a factor of 8.

Also, there have been lots of complaints about the reliability of steam locomotives.  I only own two (both Tornado in different liveries) and one of those had to be fixed, so I can sympathise.

On the other hand, I have dozens of diesel locos and they tend to run smoothly and reliably.

From this I deduce that steam locos present a greater engineering challenge in N due to their outside motion, irregular body shapes etc.  This is hardly rocket science!

(As an aside, let's not forget that for historic reasons the US and Japan switched away from steam far sooner than the UK, so although Kato do make good steam locos, they don't have to make nearly as many different ones as Farish.)

So what is a manufacturer to do to improve reliability of steam engines?

Better reliability means designing in better systems, using better materials, testing and checking more models and rejecting more too.

This all costs.  If you're making 50,000 models you can load those costs into the design stage, you spend more on testing, on materials, on checking, knowing that these costs will be spread across more models in the long run.

If you need to limit design costs because you're only producing 3,000 models, then you will inevitably have cut some corners.  Your "pass" threshold for components or mechanisms is lowered.

To save more money you use cheaper motors, less robust materials, less costly moulding machines.  You test 1 in 5 models, instead of every one, so you reject fewer of them.

In my view a £80 steam locomotive is going to have had corners cut in development and manufacture to keep it down to that price.  This is a reality that Fleischmann and others have known for a long time.

Perhaps I have been suckered in by both manufacturers and retailers? 

Maybe.  But consider the obvious:  there are no model shops in prime shopping locations any more.  The car park at Bachmann (I visit fairly regularly) is not full of Porsches and Jaguars.  They are not hosting lavish trade events, or spending huge budgets on advertising on TV or national newspapers.  Hornby have had to issue profit warnings and their CEO has left.

Is this really the behaviour of companies who have never had it so good, who are raking it in?

Or is it the fact that, broadly speaking, costs are rising, they are being largely honest with us and if they are to stay in business some tough decisions are needed?

But the message here is not "well, I would pay more if I know the loco was going to be as reliable as Fleischmann" but "it's all too expensive so let's  boycott items to teach them a lesson."

So, setting commercial realities against customer expectations, what is a manufacturer to do?

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 24, 2016, 02:47:06 PM
A good summing up of the situation, Ben.
What sticks in my craw, though, is that the Chinese government has copped for the majority of the blame and been used as a 'cover' for higher prices by the manufacturers. I have worked in 2 separate manufacturing industries in the UK and the percentage labour cost of the total manufacturing cost worked out at 40% in both cases. If labour costs rise by 20%, the only effect on the total cost is 20% of 40% i.e. 8%, which doesn't justify in itself the swingeing increases Farish have pushed through.
The above is based on UK labour costs. The Chinese costs must have been far, far less for their government to decree what they decreed, so possibly the 'true' increase in the total cost was as low as 4%. By all means, anyone working in manufacturing in the UK can go to their company Cost Accountant and ask what the percentage labour cost is of what they're producing so as to check my figures.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Thorpe Parva on April 24, 2016, 02:50:55 PM
I have been following this thread with some interest and I think that Ben's comments are spot on.

I recently considered purchasing the newly available Farish Royal Scot 46122 as it would have been a "nice to have". In the end I decided to spend just a few pounds more and get two locos from Union Mills. I now have a 3F & 2P which are excellent runners and totally appropriate for my modelling era/location.

I think that there is an issue with the choice models that are available. When the Farish 4F was released I immediately purchased two and will probably get more in future. There was a latent demand for this model and I believe that the same applies to a revamped 8F & 25/3. I guess these will appear at some point in the future.

One reservation I had about 46122 is that although I have more than 20 locos, none of these are weathered. I don't really want any weathered locos & if I did then I would probably do it myself. It seems that Farish bring out a weathered version of a loco when it has been available for a while & it enables £10 to be added to the RRP. This may be easiest for Farish from a manufacturing standpoint but I believe that they would get more sales by releasing pristine models with different running numbers.

A few months ago I did purchase a couple of "nice to have" locos, a BR 5MT and a WD, but only because Hattons had them available at a bargain price. Without the price reduction then I would not have bought them.

With regard to wagons then I have cut back my purchases dramatically and have decided that I will focus mainly on building wagons from kits & just make the occasional RTR purchase.

I think that as others have said in other threads, I will still spend the same amount of money but it will be spent more selectively.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 04:47:21 PM
Quote from: Ben A on April 24, 2016, 12:59:38 PM


Also, there have been lots of complaints about the reliability of steam locomotives.  I only own two (both Tornado in different liveries) and one of those had to be fixed, so I can sympathise.

On the other hand, I have dozens of diesel locos and they tend to run smoothly and reliably.

From this I deduce that steam locos present a greater engineering challenge in N due to their outside motion, irregular body shapes etc.  This is hardly rocket science!

(As an aside, let's not forget that for historic reasons the US and Japan switched away from steam far sooner than the UK, so although Kato do make good steam locos, they don't have to make nearly as many different ones as Farish.)

So what is a manufacturer to do to improve reliability of steam engines?

Better reliability means designing in better systems, using better materials, testing and checking more models and rejecting more too.

This all costs.  If you're making 50,000 models you can load those costs into the design stage, you spend more on testing, on materials, on checking, knowing that these costs will be spread across more models in the long run.

If you need to limit design costs because you're only producing 3,000 models, then you will inevitably have cut some corners.  Your "pass" threshold for components or mechanisms is lowered.

To save more money you use cheaper motors, less robust materials, less costly moulding machines.  You test 1 in 5 models, instead of every one, so you reject fewer of them.

In my view a £80 steam locomotive is going to have had corners cut in development and manufacture to keep it down to that price.  This is a reality that Fleischmann and others have known for a long time.


Cheers

Ben A.

Hi Ben

I agree with you in part at least. Expectations of cheaper prices will mean lower quality/corners cut, a much simpler model or all of those things. Not to also forget that 20% of the price is VAT for most of us. There can also be no doubt that although numbers vary the production runs of UK prototypes will be much smaller meaning that costs must very carefully controlled and recovered more quickly.

However I do not agree that there have been "lots" of complaints about reliability of steam locos. More than Diesels quite probably, but not lots when considered against the volume produced (as opposed to a relatively small number of people on forums such as this who complain). Steam models undoubtedly present more challenges in production terms, but treated with care they are in my experience as reliable as their Diesel counterparts. I have had just as many problems with diesels as steamers albeit relatively few with either. Maybe I am lucky, maybe a bit over protective in how I treat them, but whatever it is the fact remains I have few problems.

Costs have gone up, these have been passed on. Possibly off the back of a change in pricing structure by Kader - who really knows, but given Bachmann Europe is tied to Kader's Chinese factories for production, they are stuck with it and therefore of course so are we.

I do not personally agree that people are boycotting Bachmann because of these price hikes. I feel it is as much to do with the prices going beyond what certain people can justify (possibly afford) so cloth is cut accordingly. £13.50 for a weathered 16 tonner will take a bit of getting used to for example, but they are very nice.

My big concern is that the pricing and lack of new models will lead to a contraction of the Market for British N and from that a degenerative spiral downwards. I therefore hope Bachmann (and others) manage to find a balance that enables them to make enough money to invest in new models that are an affordable (but realistic) price. To do that maybe expectations in terms of separately fitted detail etc do need to be slightly lower, but possibly not so much that it is too much of a reversal.

Regards

Roy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 05:02:29 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 04:47:21 PM

Steam models undoubtedly present more challenges in production terms, but treated with care they are in my experience as reliable as their Diesel counterparts. I have had just as many problems with diesels as steamers albeit relatively few with either. Maybe I am lucky, maybe a bit over protective in how I treat them, but whatever it is the fact remains I have few problems.

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. I have had a number of these, as have others on this forum. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

Most locos, if they work properly from the off, generally continue to work reliably as you have said. Even then I've had a couple of steamers with valve gear that fell off or apart. Again a fairly common problem which has been reported.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 24, 2016, 05:12:01 PM
Hi Roy,

Yes, not owning many steam locos myself, and having a 50% failure rate, I think I may have fallen into the trap of thinking a that a few complaints on here equate to a systemic problem that probably isn't the case.

Thanks for the sense of perspective.

As to boycotts, I was merely reflecting a suggestion earlier in the thread.  For me that would be a pyrrhic tactic -   I can't see how it will do anything other than force manufacturers away.

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 05:02:29 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 04:47:21 PM

Steam models undoubtedly present more challenges in production terms, but treated with care they are in my experience as reliable as their Diesel counterparts. I have had just as many problems with diesels as steamers albeit relatively few with either. Maybe I am lucky, maybe a bit over protective in how I treat them, but whatever it is the fact remains I have few problems.

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. I have had a number of these, as have others on this forum. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

Most locos, if they work properly from the off, generally continue to work reliably as you have said. Even then I've had a couple of steamers with valve gear that fell off or apart. Again a fairly common problem which has been reported.
:beers:

Hi Bob

I would be very surprised if the failure rate was close to 5% of each production run (which your 95% would reflect). I have heard an overall figure of 3% given, I think this was consistent across both manufacturers. Don't forget for every person who has a problem and complains (often very vocally) there are likely to be 20 or more satisfied customers who say nothing.

Regards

Roy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 24, 2016, 05:44:05 PM
Quote from: Ben A on April 24, 2016, 05:12:01 PM
Hi Roy,

Yes, not owning many steam locos myself, and having a 50% failure rate, I think I may have fallen into the trap of thinking a that a few complaints on here equate to a systemic problem that probably isn't the case.

Thanks for the sense of perspective.

As to boycotts, I was merely reflecting a suggestion earlier in the thread.  For me that would be a pyrrhic tactic -   I can't see how it will do anything other than force manufacturers away.

Cheers

Ben A.

Roy, I suspect even if the official failure rate is 3%, the actual "not satisfied" rate is a lot higher as we're talking modellers who are able to fettle and collectors who never run them. Not to mention a lot of people who just give up on trying to get a good one. The official failure rate would only count ones that QA catch before leaving the factory and ones that get returned from retailers.

There's certainly relatively high failure rates on some locos. Anything above 10% and you're into 'unreasonable' territory that a manufacturer of any other device would be panicking about.

Some of it though is down to plain and simple poor basic engineering design. I take my Dapol Hall as a classic example.

1: It's too light. Not just an issue for traction, it's so light vs the power of the engine that having the power transmitted from the tender to drive the loco wheels means the torque is enough to literally twist the loco off the track on curves (it's why they tend to cope with curves in one direction and not the other)

2: Some components really aren't suited to the job. The wires connecting the tender to the loco are too thick a gauge given how light the loco is. When it's cornering, they're thick enough to act like springs when compressed and don't allow the loco/tender combination to turn properly. At the same time, they're too thin, so they have an annoying habit of breaking. There are already much better solutions to the problem out there prior to the Dapol design. Such as making the connecting drawbar between loco and tender one of the power feeds and a single central wire or the Peco system which actually runs power either side of the drawbar, eliminating the wire entirely and even lets you detach the tender easily.

It does seem that most of the design effort was focussed on the detail and accuracy to prototype, sacrificing playability (and ease of construction) whenever they met. Thing is, unless you're only doing display models, playability and reliable running are critical in what is essentially a toy train.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 06:18:35 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 05:37:34 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 05:02:29 PM
Quote from: Roy L S on April 24, 2016, 04:47:21 PM

Steam models undoubtedly present more challenges in production terms, but treated with care they are in my experience as reliable as their Diesel counterparts. I have had just as many problems with diesels as steamers albeit relatively few with either. Maybe I am lucky, maybe a bit over protective in how I treat them, but whatever it is the fact remains I have few problems.

I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. I have had a number of these, as have others on this forum. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

Most locos, if they work properly from the off, generally continue to work reliably as you have said. Even then I've had a couple of steamers with valve gear that fell off or apart. Again a fairly common problem which has been reported.
:beers:

Hi Bob

I would be very surprised if the failure rate was close to 5% of each production run (which your 95% would reflect). I have heard an overall figure of 3% given, I think this was consistent across both manufacturers. Don't forget for every person who has a problem and complains (often very vocally) there are likely to be 20 or more satisfied customers who say nothing.

Regards

Roy
You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

As others have eluded to, quality ideally has to be designed in and not inspected out, but if the design is not too good then inspection and test have to be applied to the extent that customers don't get rubbish delivered to them.

I've posted many times about this topic of quality, probably cos part of my background is in quality management systems and techniques, so I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself.

:-[ :beers:



Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: DELETED on April 24, 2016, 07:08:03 PM
Here's my 2p worth (plus another 98p also).

Having re-entered the hobby after a 30'odd year break I chose n gauge due to the space constraints.  I was very impressed at the level of detail on the models some 7-8 years ago so was really quite happy with the scale.  I was able to find some reasonable deals, and as my preference changed quite quickly to Diesels and DCC I was extremely happy with the level of detail and doing my own split chassis conversions, and puying the 'odd DCC ready locomotive.

I have been watching prices climb for the past 2-3 years though and I have supported others who have not been happy.  I don't need ultra-fine detail (which always seems to get damaged or fall off), a reduction from 6 axle pick-ups to 4, hidden pick-up points, lights which sometimes stop working after 6 months.  Having built-up a semi-reliable fleet of 6 pin DCC ready locos I'm really shocked the standard is going to be replaced now.  I have always fully supported the argument that some of us want a return to some more basic, robust construction with a slightly lower price tag.  For instance I have a split chassis class 31 –and I'd like another class 31, but when looking at it 4 back feet I could never justify the cost of one of the new fine detailed DCC ready ones.

I probably haven't bought more than three new locomotives or items of rolling stock for 2 ½ years now.  I was out of work for 15 months, and now I'm back-in permanent work my salary is circa 35% of what it was, there is just no way I will now pay £100+ for a locomotive or £30+ for a coach or £20+ for a wagon.  I was in my local model shop "Sports and Model Shop" in Dingwall and picked up one of the very nice new inspection saloons in BR blue.  I had it in my hands three times I came to sense and put it back for a final time, as much as I liked it I just can't justify the cost.  Even when I was earing good money years ago I probably wouldn't have shelled out that much on one small coach on principle.

Compared to 5-6 years ago I find the second hand market is way bigger now, but prices have skyrocketed also.  Whereas I was buying second hand locomotives for £50 –they're £80 now and the likes of Hattons are advertising "Used" at 80-90% (sometimes with faults), right next to the new model.  Wagons and some coaches are similar also.  I for one have definitely curbed my spending on rolling stock, and my outlook on the hobby, not by choice but out of necessity.

I really admire the likes of the Kickstarter projects and the smaller manufacturers.  Unfortunately it's not something I would support if there isn't stock available already, and I can't afford the prices anyway! Cheap Peco unpainted wagon kits are my choice now, and I've bought a rake of Lima coaches which were great value if not looked at close-up.  But this limits my market.

I had a chance conversation this week with one of the guys at the plant I was working in and they're into R/C planes.  Been there, done it 10+ years ago.  But I remember the costs being quite high –we were both saying the fall in prices for ready to run models and everything else is just staggering now.  You can fly a sub £100 aeroplane now (incl. radio gear, ready to fly) whereas it would have cost £250 + radio + batteries + motor etc. when I was into them.

I have chucked the mag now but there was a one page article from a Mr Bardsley in one of the April mags.  I left that article annoyed thinking, while my brand new £100+ loco has broken after 10 mins run-in I should be thankful it happened to me as an isolated case and be damned sure I have never had it better and I frankly should have paid more for the privilege.  I do not agree with his comments at all and it was a very one-sided article but it seems to be the way things are advertised.

Rich
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Les1952 on April 24, 2016, 09:10:15 PM
Just a quick few points-

1.  In answer to the Dave Jones question- his OO Scale O2s are out there, and giving few problems on most people's track, though there are the usual niggles about the decoration, often contradicting each other (!).  The OO J94 is due in the next couple of months.  The Hattons one I ordered had its second livery sample passed last month.  Sales of this one pay tooling and production of the first N-gauge locos, the classes 17 and 23.  Dave is also hit by rising costs in China.  However my pre-order price for the OO limited edition J94s I have is still 25% less than the pre-order price  for the Bachmann USA Tank Model Rail are peddling.  Maybe a Class 17 by Christmas, maybe next year- it will depend on Dave's cash flow.

2.  The grass isn't greener in OO.  You just need to look at the threads on RMWeb about Bachmann, Hornby and Heljan to hear people moaning about price hikes and lack of quality.  Anyone for an A3 with bendy footplate?  How about a Beyer Garratt with a self-destructing motor?  Or an 0-6-2T or 2-4-2T that won't go through Peco points?  One from each manufacturer on the list- there are plenty of others to choose from.  As to price- £130 for an 0-6-0 diesel shunter, anyone?

3.  Quality comes at a price.  Just look at how much those nice bespoke indestructible CJM diesels are- or at the £200 to £300 you can pay for a Fleischmann or Minitrix loco now- and I've had lemons of both of those makes, likewise Kato. 

4.  Inflation is hitting Japan and Germany too.  To replace the trams on Furtwangen Ost I would now have to pay about £160 for a German one (was £85 when they were bought new not many years ago) or about £100 for a Japanese one (against £50 when mine were new 5-6 years ago).  Only the hand-made Linea8 cars are the same price at around £180 to £200.  The present fleet won't run all that much longer, maybe a year of exhibition use, so the layout is being retired from the circuit in September as I haven't a spare £1000 to spend on new trams.

All the very best
Les
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on April 24, 2016, 10:36:43 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 06:18:35 PM
I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

<new post>

You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

But are you not at risk of setting false expectations? You want every model checking and the quality designed in and all at no extra price - that doesn't work in large scale manufacturing where high quality design often comes with a price so why should it work for extremely low volume manufacturing? New designs cost time and money - on low volumes it soon becomes more economical to work on a small failure rate rather than 100% perfection out of the box as the design and testing regime becomes expensive when split across the small production volume.

Cheers, Mike



Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on April 24, 2016, 10:49:34 PM
We seem to be going through the same quarterly argument on prices vs detail levels vs reliability and I'm really not sure much has changed since the last time we did it!

Some people want greater reliability and fewer details, others want greater reliability and lower prices. I would hope everyone wants to expand the N gauge market (which we can argue is in the range of 20-30% of the whole UK modelling community).  There is no getting away from the fact that the NGS has seen reasonably large numbers of modellers joining over the past 5-10 years - some of them undoubtedly for access to the NGS RTR products, but others undoubtedly due to the increases in quality (details and running) that we have seen.  I've lost count of the number of times exhibiting that 4mm modellers have come over and said how impressed they are with the huge advances that N gauge has seen over the last decade.

The advances in details and running (and despite those who swear by the Poole mechs I'd still much rather have a decent Chinese mech in 99% of cases) have come at a cost in that assembly is a much greater part of the total cost than perhaps it used to be - for a significant period that was masked by the reduction in labour costs of moving to China.  Inevitably increases in Chinese labour costs have had a disproportionate increase in retail prices (they would be significantly higher again if assembly was done in the UK (assuming some of the skills were available for low volume manufacturers)).

We can try and kid ourselves that there is a magic bullet but I've yet to see it (and that isn't from wont of trying!).  I'd love to find a way to produce the models people want in small volumes, at low costs, with great detail and immaculate reliability - answers on a postcard!

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: railsquid on April 25, 2016, 01:36:37 AM
Quote from: Les1952 on April 24, 2016, 09:10:15 PM

4.  Inflation is hitting Japan and Germany too.  To replace the trams on Furtwangen Ost I would now have to pay about £160 for a German one (was £85 when they were bought new not many years ago) or about £100 for a Japanese one (against £50 when mine were new 5-6 years ago). 
Out of curiosity which Japanese tram is costing you £100?  :hmmm:

There is some inflationary pressure here, in particular the cheap Tomytec range of buildings/accessories and unmotorised trains has seen a hike of 20 ~ 30% in the last few months, and MicroAce seem to have jumped the shark and pushed prices up towards British levels, but not seeing any particular changes in the Kato and Tomix pricing yet.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 25, 2016, 01:44:10 AM
I am never really sure why price matters that much...you spend what you spend.

If I can afford £10 a week for a wagon, it is the same amount spent whether I buy one week or one a month, isn't it?


I know some people want everything, or at least most of it- but it dont work like that.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NinOz on April 25, 2016, 03:18:06 AM
Quote from: red_death on April 24, 2016, 10:49:34 PM
We seem to be going through the same quarterly argument on prices vs detail levels vs reliability and I'm really not sure much has changed since the last time we did it!
And so productive. :no:

Perhaps we just need a list of prior posts to which people could post a link to re-re-restate their position or article of faith.  Rather like the joke about the comedians convention. :)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: kirky on April 25, 2016, 07:52:42 AM
I think I would far rather see high prices from Farish, than no Farish at all. Some people will recall maybe 12 years ago or so, before Farish was taken over by Bachmann, second hand prices on ebay went through the roof. A can rmember paying a considerably greater than RRP for a 4MT. It was a dog.

Kirky
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 08:23:47 AM
How long can this topic be sustainable?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 08:25:27 AM
Quote from: red_death on April 24, 2016, 10:36:43 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 24, 2016, 06:18:35 PM
I think most peoples' complaints about quality of locos is when they don't work out of the box. That is the main improvement that is required - it MUST work out of the box. The manufacturers should have an inspection/test regime that checks enough locos to give statistical confidence that the majority (say 95% or some other defined figure) will work properly.

This is normal practice for all products and I don't see why N gauge locos should be any different.
I don't see why doing this would necessarily put the price up as a greater confidence that the loco is gonna work will reduce the number and cost of returns.

<new post>

You're probably right Roy but don't forget that the 3% (or whatever percentage it is) who get a duff loco are more than justified in being miffed about the situation and in complaining vocally.
They are entitled to receive a good loco for the price they have paid.

What percentage of unsatisfied customers is acceptable? 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1 % - I don't know. I just know if I get the 0.1% of failures I am not gonna be happy.

This is another reason why it is so important to try and ensure that every product that is shipped works. People listen to the bad news, not the good news and as a result even a few failures give the manufacturer a bad reputation. Justifiably so in my opinion.

But are you not at risk of setting false expectations? You want every model checking and the quality designed in and all at no extra price - that doesn't work in large scale manufacturing where high quality design often comes with a price so why should it work for extremely low volume manufacturing? New designs cost time and money - on low volumes it soon becomes more economical to work on a small failure rate rather than 100% perfection out of the box as the design and testing regime becomes expensive when split across the small production volume.

Cheers, Mike
Hi Mike
I didn't say I was expecting 100% checks, just a big enough statistical sample check to ensure that the failure rate is below a published level.
In terms of design costs, I have worked in many areas where improved design has been undertaken. Yes, there are addtional costs to this but the costs are generally recovered by savings in reduced rework of faulty production and reduced costs of warranty returns.
The customer is then much happier as they have much increased confidence that the product will work (fit for purpose) and are more likely to make more purchases in the future.
In terms of failure rates the often quoted 5% is far to high in my opinion. 5% failures, in a 5000 production run say, means there are going to be 250 unhappy customers. That doesn't seem acceptable to me.

I know this thread is about increasing prices and improving design is perceived as increasing cost/price but it  isn't necessarily the case because of all the other savings made.

:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 25, 2016, 08:27:15 AM
One thing that seems to be missing from the N gauge market is marketing. All the advertising and products appear to be targeted inwards at existing railway modellers and while N gauge gaining from OO is a good thing, they're not new players, they're coming from another shrinking user base.

Hornby's been fairly sensible and managed to get the Thomas license back, which is ideal for OO and while he's not as much of a bonus for N Gauge because it's a harder sell size-wise for kids (or rather, parents concerned their kids will break them), Thomas in N is popular, just rare. Whoever's at Bachmann or Dapol and thinking long term, do a deal with Tomix and the Thomas license holders and get their models officially in the UK to get some new players in. Longer term, developing a non Thomas brand that appeals to the younger audience might not be a bad plan too.

Likewise, Farish (and Dapol) need train sets. Proper ones with budget engines and stock that can tempt people in. Even if they're battery powered! (My first train set was a battery powered Hornby one. The loco didn't get used much once I got a 'proper' one but the trucks all carried on for years ;) )
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 25, 2016, 08:28:31 AM
Quote from: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 08:23:47 AM
How long can this topic be sustainable?

Until we run out of N Gauge manufacturers and suppliers if it's an indicator that customers are generally unhappy with things :(
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on April 25, 2016, 09:15:43 AM
Yes, this has been discussed a few times previously but raises it's head again.

There will be many N gauge modellers who have never heard of this forum, or choose not to join it. Actions speak louder than words, so the levels of new sales will be a pretty good indicator of how potential buyers have responded to the price increases. Whilst there appears to be two main points of view on price hikes, many may/will prefer not to air their views.

The previous poster who spoke about losing his job was interesting. He gained a new job after 15 months, but earning around a third less than previously. I believe there are a lot of people in a similar situation, or can only find part-time employment.
11,000 jobs could potentially go with the loss of BHS. Many may be jobs filled by ladies, whose income is so often essential to pay the bills in modern day Britain. The SWMBO scenario is banded about on here, but can become a true force to deal with if money coming into the household is severely hit.
Posters have said second hand prices have risen in recent times...supply and demand as a result of people not prepared or able to pay the prices asked for brand new items?

Time will tell if across the board people have decided to curtail/limit their purchases in the light of price hikes.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 09:34:36 AM
One thing for sure, prices won't go down, all the harrumphing
about Chinese factories is a waste of time. If you want to
model British railways you'll have to cough up.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 09:50:14 AM
Quote from: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 09:34:36 AM
One thing for sure, prices won't go down, all the harrumphing
about Chinese factories is a waste of time. If you want to
model British railways you'll have to cough up.
That's what I do every time I see the latest prices!!!
:)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Yet_Another on April 25, 2016, 01:13:54 PM
There is, I suspect, a large number of quiet people, who may or may not be on any forum, who have deep pockets, and £30 per coach is not really significant.

I've been into G scale for over ten years, and I could pay up to £250-£300 for one RhB coach, when I was buying such things. And in that scale, there is a vast silent majority that just buys what it wants, while a vociferous minority complains about the price of everything.

Even if it shrinks and becomes more niche, there will always be people who will pay the asking price.

YMMV.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on April 25, 2016, 01:18:56 PM
I think that we really need to put to bed the myth that the hobby is dying out or contracting. All the empirical evidence suggests that isn't true:
- more products being produced than ever (why would manufacturers produce things if they don't stand a reasonable chance of selling them)
- more exhibitions than ever (I would argue too many but that is a different matter!)
- product quality, details and features have increased dramatically
- the market is still supporting 4 mainstream modelling mags (at a time when print is struggling!)
- numbers of members of the NGS is at historic highs over the past few years

I'm under no illusion that the market has changed (and not always for the better) but I see no real evidence that the market is dying.

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Buzzard on April 25, 2016, 03:02:53 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 23, 2016, 12:17:14 PM
as for rakes of these ...

http://www.ehattons.com/52917/Graham_Farish_373_235_Bulk_grain_bogie_hopper_wagon_Traffic_Services_weathered/StockDetail.aspx (http://www.ehattons.com/52917/Graham_Farish_373_235_Bulk_grain_bogie_hopper_wagon_Traffic_Services_weathered/StockDetail.aspx)

I doubt we'll see many layouts running rakes at that price.
Makes the Revolution TEA look exceptionally good value for money.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 03:08:27 PM
There is also the myth that because something is becoming more expensive, we are being ripped off. That just doesn't appear to be the case.

Just because you can't afford it, or can't justify it, doesn't mean it's overpriced.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 25, 2016, 03:23:20 PM
perhaps a way to compare prices is, rather than the £.s.d cost of the item, consider how long you need to work for to earn the money to pay for it.

certainly when you look back over the years, it is interesting to see how this equates.

for instance, back in the 60s a series one airfix kit was 2/-, or 10p.
now it's £4.99, or about 50 times the cost.

have your wages gone up 50 times since then ?

in those days I was on about £30 a month, when I retired I was on about £1,700 a month, what's that, about 56 times, so in theory that kit still costs the same  ???

OK where did I go wrong, or is that right  :hmmm:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 03:26:48 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 03:08:27 PM
There is also the myth that because something is becoming more expensive, we are being ripped off. That just doesn't appear to be the case.

Just because you can't afford it, or can't justify it, doesn't mean it's overpriced.
You're right of course but (grinding axe again) whatever price it is it should work properly!!!
:) :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: paulprice on April 25, 2016, 03:44:32 PM
I think its just something we have to put up with, though I must admit new locomotive prices make me wince when I'm allowed to visit a model shop
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 25, 2016, 04:20:36 PM
If you want it you will afford it, wine, women, song, golf, model railways.

Doesn't mean you pay full price all the time.  With a bit of patience a sale will come round and as four in five first time N buyers give up and sell, EBay will always be well stocked.

I rarely buy new without a discount and I have a list of what I want/need and a price I'm prepared to pay and I wait.

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 04:33:00 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on April 25, 2016, 04:20:36 PM
If you want it you will afford it, wine, women, song, golf, model railways.

Doesn't mean you pay full price all the time.  With a bit of patience a sale will come round and as four in five first time N buyers give up and sell, EBay will always be well stocked.

I rarely buy new without a discount and I have a list of what I want/need and a price I'm prepared to pay and I wait.

Absolutely, and often when this 'discussion' comes round (and round...... and round) the price quoted in the discussion is RRP. How many of vendors actually charge RRP? I'd be interested to see how many purchasers pay RRP.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Les1952 on April 25, 2016, 06:07:19 PM
Quote from: railsquid on April 25, 2016, 01:36:37 AM
Out of curiosity which Japanese tram is costing you £100?  :hmmm:


[/quote]

Modemo Tokyo cars.

Les
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Les1952 on April 25, 2016, 06:25:59 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 25, 2016, 03:23:20 PM
perhaps a way to compare prices is, rather than the £.s.d cost of the item, consider how long you need to work for to earn the money to pay for it.

certainly when you look back over the years, it is interesting to see how this equates.

for instance, back in the 60s a series one airfix kit was 2/-, or 10p.
now it's £4.99, or about 50 times the cost.

have your wages gone up 50 times since then ?

in those days I was on about £30 a month, when I retired I was on about £1,700 a month, what's that, about 56 times, so in theory that kit still costs the same  ???

OK where did I go wrong, or is that right  :hmmm:

You didn't.

I started teaching in 1973 on £79 a month after offtakes, and retired on about £2800 a month after offtakes.  However I had a few promotions in that time but a teacher starting at the same point as I did would be on about £1500 a month after offtakes, I think.  A little less than 50X as much.

My pension doesn't go as far as I'd like it to, but I've spent steadily on modelling for over 50 years and recycled the cash when changing scales.  I afforded the change to DCC by selling stock that didn't fit the period any more.  The track for my next N-gauge layout will come from selling Furtwangen Ost.

The ones I feel more sorry for are the youngsters.  However this hobby is still cheaper than drinking yourself stupid each week or smoking 50 a day (both of which one grandfather did), and think how many trains you can buy for the price of a season ticket to a Premier League football club.

Les
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JayM481 on April 25, 2016, 09:52:12 PM
Quote from: Arrachogaidh on April 25, 2016, 04:28:41 PM
Can I suggest that the whingers take a look at the price of new Fleischmann locomotives and compare against similar new Dapol and Farish.

You will find UK outline is cheaper than that produced for our Continental friends.

Last Flieschmann loco I looked at came out at over £180.
But contrast that with US outline. I just bought a sound-equipped Atlas switcher for $300 Canadian (about £140). I know, economies of scale make a huge difference when comparing US to UK or Continental.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 25, 2016, 10:07:01 PM
Quote from: Les1952 on April 25, 2016, 06:25:59 PM
think how many trains you can buy for the price of a season ticket to a Premier League football club.

Les

Not that Preston are in the Premier League but, in their case, not even one :-X
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 25, 2016, 11:29:30 PM
Quote from: JayM481 on April 25, 2016, 09:52:12 PM... I just bought a sound-equipped Atlas switcher for $300 Canadian (about £140). I know, economies of scale make a huge difference when comparing US to UK or Continental.

Yes, and I am sure it's a lovely model, but unless you're modelling the appropriate location for that loco, or are a genuine rule-1 enthusiast, it's irrelevant.

I think some US models look lovely, but I would never buy them as they are utterly wrong for Horseley Fields or any other layout I am ever likely to run them on!

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Portpatrick on April 25, 2016, 11:37:02 PM
Quote from: Les1952 on April 25, 2016, 06:25:59 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 25, 2016, 03:23:20 PM
perhaps a way to compare prices is, rather than the £.s.d cost of the item, consider how long you need to work for to earn the money to pay for it.

certainly when you look back over the years, it is interesting to see how this equates.

for instance, back in the 60s a series one airfix kit was 2/-, or 10p.
now it's £4.99, or about 50 times the cost.

have your wages gone up 50 times since then ?

in those days I was on about £30 a month, when I retired I was on about £1,700 a month, what's that, about 56 times, so in theory that kit still costs the same  ???

OK where did I go wrong, or is that right  :hmmm:

You didn't.

I started teaching in 1973 on £79 a month after offtakes, and retired on about £2800 a month after offtakes.  However I had a few promotions in that time but a teacher starting at the same point as I did would be on about £1500 a month after offtakes, I think.  A little less than 50X as much.

My pension doesn't go as far as I'd like it to, but I've spent steadily on modelling for over 50 years and recycled the cash when changing scales.  I afforded the change to DCC by selling stock that didn't fit the period any more.  The track for my next N-gauge layout will come from selling Furtwangen Ost.

The ones I feel more sorry for are the youngsters.  However this hobby is still cheaper than drinking yourself stupid each week or smoking 50 a day (both of which one grandfather did), and think how many trains you can buy for the price of a season ticket to a Premier League football club.

Les

And to give this comparison another take, RPI in mid 1965 was c 15.  Earlier this year it was c 260.  Increase factor less than 20.  So the Airfix kit has rocketed by comparison with general inflation.  On an earlier thread I looked at Sept 1976 when I bought a new Minitrix Brit for a bit under £15 - from memory it was £13.50.  In that time the increase in RPI has been a factor of 6.5.  What are Dapol Brits going for now?  Of course the quality of detail and accuracy is vastly superior.  I will pass on robustness and reliability, though mine thankfully has been fine.

When I left school in 1971 my initial salary on BR was £890 pa - from memory take home approx £13 per week.  No idea what the equivalent grade of trainee accountant would be paid now.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 25, 2016, 11:52:18 PM
Quote from: Portpatrick on April 25, 2016, 11:37:02 PM
Quote from: Les1952 on April 25, 2016, 06:25:59 PM
Quote from: class37025 on April 25, 2016, 03:23:20 PM
perhaps a way to compare prices is, rather than the £.s.d cost of the item, consider how long you need to work for to earn the money to pay for it.

certainly when you look back over the years, it is interesting to see how this equates.

for instance, back in the 60s a series one airfix kit was 2/-, or 10p.
now it's £4.99, or about 50 times the cost.

have your wages gone up 50 times since then ?

in those days I was on about £30 a month, when I retired I was on about £1,700 a month, what's that, about 56 times, so in theory that kit still costs the same  ???

OK where did I go wrong, or is that right  :hmmm:

You didn't.

I started teaching in 1973 on £79 a month after offtakes, and retired on about £2800 a month after offtakes.  However I had a few promotions in that time but a teacher starting at the same point as I did would be on about £1500 a month after offtakes, I think.  A little less than 50X as much.

My pension doesn't go as far as I'd like it to, but I've spent steadily on modelling for over 50 years and recycled the cash when changing scales.  I afforded the change to DCC by selling stock that didn't fit the period any more.  The track for my next N-gauge layout will come from selling Furtwangen Ost.

The ones I feel more sorry for are the youngsters.  However this hobby is still cheaper than drinking yourself stupid each week or smoking 50 a day (both of which one grandfather did), and think how many trains you can buy for the price of a season ticket to a Premier League football club.

Les

And to give this comparison another take, RPI in mid 1965 was c 15.  Earlier this year it was c 260.  Increase factor less than 20.  So the Airfix kit has rocketed by comparison with general inflation.  On an earlier thread I looked at Sept 1976 when I bought a new Minitrix Brit for a bit under £15 - from memory it was £13.50.  In that time the increase in RPI has been a factor of 6.5.  What are Dapol Brits going for now?  Of course the quality of detail and accuracy is vastly superior.  I will pass on robustness and reliability, though mine thankfully has been fine.

When I left school in 1971 my initial salary on BR was £890 pa - from memory take home approx £13 per week.  No idea what the equivalent grade of trainee accountant would be paid now.

In the 1979 price list it was £21.95 so assuming a an RPI uplift of 6 you get £131.70.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 11:53:19 PM
A trainee accountant fresh from college might start
on £15,000 - £19,000  depending on qualification
location and also whether in  industry or practice.

A bit off topic, but years ago as an accountant in Glasgow
one client was a well known Old Firm footballer and
international player. I was earning 1/10 of his wages,
nowadays if the same fraction applied I'd be on
approx £250,000. Enough to buy an SBB krokodil
(model not real)

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 26, 2016, 12:17:05 AM
Thought I'd add if cash is tight no need to try and
buy large amounts of stock , instead build a small
layout like Littleton Curve deceptively simple  where
the emphasis is on scenery, just an oval , passing loop ,
loco and some trucks. A small tank engine or shunter
doesn't cost the earth and a few Peco truck kits won't
break the bank.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: 47033 on April 26, 2016, 12:38:38 AM
Just an observation but Hattons have the Farish MK2F priced at 17.81, which will obviously change once it's released. The price of MK1 and MK2's at that time were 17.81 but are now priced at 25.46.  The announcement of the MK2F's was only 2 or 3 years ago so we can see how much the cost has gone up.   A high percentage of goods we use in the US is imported from China and I can honestly say that I haven't  noticed any significant increases in any other imported goods from China other than British outline model railways and in particular rolling stock. 

I'm just rebuilding a pickup truck I bought a while ago and made a list of the new parts I need. Many of these parts are obsolete here in the States and are manufactured off shore, mainly in China. The list was made well over a year ago and most parts have been purchased already. Going back through the list there have been very few price increases and those that did were minimal.  I'm confused......
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 26, 2016, 12:48:38 AM
The problem is model railways in China are made to special order. 

If you think the guys making our models are also making millions of moldings for mobile phones, and are being screwed to the floor on price, of course they will want to make money on the specials.  Their sales pitch is pay or go away.

We also have a particular problem in the UK that the pound has weakened meaning its costing us more even if the factory door price stays the same.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 26, 2016, 01:28:45 AM
Quote from: Agrippa on April 25, 2016, 08:23:47 AM
How long can this topic be sustainable?

Be careful what you wish for :D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 26, 2016, 01:34:28 AM
Quote from: Agrippa on April 26, 2016, 12:17:05 AM
Thought I'd add if cash is tight no need to try and
buy large amounts of stock , instead build a small
layout like Littleton Curve deceptively simple  where
the emphasis is on scenery, just an oval , passing loop ,
loco and some trucks. A small tank engine or shunter
doesn't cost the earth and a few Peco truck kits won't
break the bank.

That is the "problem" though - the Collector takes over from the Modeller kinda attitude...small trains and their surroundings cease to become something to model and are something to buy.
Look at my expensive shiny new toy......
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 26, 2016, 10:02:09 AM

Hi Jason,

That's absolutely right, though with a slight caveat.

Most of us probably imagine our model railway represents a real or plausible location, and is part of an imagined wider network.

In this context, there is always an excuse for another train different to the last.

Plus, for some of us there are missing items - on our club layout Horseley Fields, for example, we really need 323s, car trains, 175s and so on.  While we do have enough stock to fill the fiddle yard with prototypically correct(ish) trains, when/if models of these essential items become available we will get them.

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Portpatrick on April 26, 2016, 10:27:33 AM
In all this, I am mostly stocked up both for Portpatrick Town, and the new more current based layout On which I was track laying yesterday.  I have reduced my purchase list to a minimum, incl DJM's Claytons.  Many of the gaps I would like to  fill are too specialist for anyone to fill,  pity the 21/29 did not come off.  So some bashing of 2nd hand, may be on the cards.  Now I am retired this may be as well!  I am not now doubling up just for fun, different numbers etc.

Thanks for more up to date salary info Agrippa.  I was an A level entrant so was at the bottom end.  Graduates entrants started on something like £1100.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 26, 2016, 10:40:59 AM
Figures of course are all relative, ie years ago a Mini was about  £700.
I can also  recall shock headlines in the papers like "Pint of beer to hit £2 "
With modelling British outline in N with two main suppliers and I assume
Farish sells approx 3-4 times Dapol, there is little alternative other than
kitbuilding which needs a chassis in any case and requires a high degree
of skill. Of course UM produce their range at modest prices and
are lovely locos though if you model post steam they don't appeal.


Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JayM481 on April 26, 2016, 10:13:37 PM
Quote from: Ben A on April 25, 2016, 11:29:30 PM
Quote from: JayM481 on April 25, 2016, 09:52:12 PM... I just bought a sound-equipped Atlas switcher for $300 Canadian (about £140). I know, economies of scale make a huge difference when comparing US to UK or Continental.

Yes, and I am sure it's a lovely model, but unless you're modelling the appropriate location for that loco, or are a genuine rule-1 enthusiast, it's irrelevant.

I think some US models look lovely, but I would never buy them as they are utterly wrong for Horseley Fields or any other layout I am ever likely to run them on!

Cheers

Ben A.

'Twasn't I who brought up Continental models, which likely look as much out of place on Horseley Fields. The point, which I probably could have made better, is that Continental or US model prices have no bearing on prices of UK outline models. Saying "but look at the price of Fleischmann..." isn't relevant either.

And I do model the appropriate location, but I thought this thread was a bit more general than a comment on what is appropriate for Horseley Fields. Lovely layout that it is, nothing I have UK outline fits there either.

Jay
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 27, 2016, 09:07:50 AM
Quote from: JayM481 on April 26, 2016, 10:13:37 PM... is that Continental or US model prices have no bearing on prices of UK outline models. Saying "but look at the price of Fleischmann..." isn't relevant either.

Jay

Hi Jay,

Yes, that's fair enough, though I always tend to feel that the German or Swiss markets are probably closer in size to the British market, making for a more helpfully comparative figure.

Broadly though I think that we are in agreement here: whether you are saying "I can buy a US loco and 10 freight cars for the equivalent of £50" or  "this Continental outlines shunter cost me £150" the point is the same - comparisons with the prices of models elsewhere depend on some factors that aren't applicable in the UK.

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on April 27, 2016, 11:41:06 AM
Quote from: JayM481 on April 25, 2016, 09:52:12 PM
But contrast that with US outline. I just bought a sound-equipped Atlas switcher for $300 Canadian (about £140). I know, economies of scale make a huge difference when comparing US to UK or Continental.

Those economies of scale in terms of number of sales make a massive difference as you are amortising the development and tooling costs over a much larger number of models which has a drastic impact on price eg for an unpowered model:

Tooling and development cost of $30,000 and unit cost of say $10 across 1000 models = unit cost price $40
Same costs across 5000 models = unit cost price $16
Same costs across 10000 models = unit cost price $11

Deliberately simplified costs but you get the point that size of market is crucial.

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 01:29:51 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 03:26:48 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 03:08:27 PM
There is also the myth that because something is becoming more expensive, we are being ripped off. That just doesn't appear to be the case.

Just because you can't afford it, or can't justify it, doesn't mean it's overpriced.
You're right of course but (grinding axe again) whatever price it is it should work properly!!!
:) :beers:

Fair point, but what is this discussion actually about?  Is it the cost or the cost coupled to the (assumed) failure rate of 5%?

If the manufacturer was able to get the failure rate down to 1% or 0.5% or even 0%, what would  you be prepared to pay? £170? £200? £250?

How much are you prepared to pay for an item that works out of the box, every time. You could argue that it should work out of the box every time, regardless of price, but the cheaper you make that product (to buy and by extension to manufacture), the less realistic and possible that ideal becomes.

Simple manufacturing economics, the cost of performing v the cost of not-performing. Farish et al, it would appear, have decided that the cost of not performing 5% of the time (assuming that failure rate assumption is correct) is less than the cost of not performing 0% of the time.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 01:29:51 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 03:26:48 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 03:08:27 PM
There is also the myth that because something is becoming more expensive, we are being ripped off. That just doesn't appear to be the case.

Just because you can't afford it, or can't justify it, doesn't mean it's overpriced.
You're right of course but (grinding axe again) whatever price it is it should work properly!!!
:) :beers:

Fair point, but what is this discussion actually about?  Is it the cost or the cost coupled to the (assumed) failure rate of 5%?

If the manufacturer was able to get the failure rate down to 1% or 0.5% or even 0%, what would  you be prepared to pay? £170? £200? £250?

How much are you prepared to pay for an item that works out of the box, every time. You could argue that it should work out of the box every time, regardless of price, but the cheaper you make that product (to buy and by extension to manufacture), the less realistic and possible that ideal becomes.

Simple manufacturing economics, the cost of performing v the cost of not-performing. Farish et al, it would appear, have decided that the cost of not performing 5% of the time (assuming that failure rate assumption is correct) is less than the cost of not performing 0% of the time.
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 02:07:19 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 01:29:51 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 25, 2016, 03:26:48 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 25, 2016, 03:08:27 PM
There is also the myth that because something is becoming more expensive, we are being ripped off. That just doesn't appear to be the case.

Just because you can't afford it, or can't justify it, doesn't mean it's overpriced.
You're right of course but (grinding axe again) whatever price it is it should work properly!!!
:) :beers:



Fair point, but what is this discussion actually about?  Is it the cost or the cost coupled to the (assumed) failure rate of 5%?

If the manufacturer was able to get the failure rate down to 1% or 0.5% or even 0%, what would  you be prepared to pay? £170? £200? £250?

How much are you prepared to pay for an item that works out of the box, every time. You could argue that it should work out of the box every time, regardless of price, but the cheaper you make that product (to buy and by extension to manufacture), the less realistic and possible that ideal becomes.

Simple manufacturing economics, the cost of performing v the cost of not-performing. Farish et al, it would appear, have decided that the cost of not performing 5% of the time (assuming that failure rate assumption is correct) is less than the cost of not performing 0% of the time.
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:

I'm afraid that is exactly what they are saying. (well, actually in fairness what they are actually saying is if you want more than 95 in a hundred that work then you need to pay more)

They know that a certain percentage will get through quality control.

All because of that simple manufacturing equation.

It happens with just about everything you buy. Think about it. The only single way Farish can guarantee that every single item will work out of the box is to test every single one as it comes off the production line. And then, test every single one that comes off the boat into the UK. Either that or hand build each and everyone with highly trained and skilled engineers, using components that are likewise not factory-assembly-line produced.

They can't and won't do that for an item at the prices we are paying. For that you'd need to be paying CJM prices.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Steve Brassett on April 27, 2016, 02:15:56 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:
To be fair - what they are saying is "If you want to guarantee that it works, you'll have to pay more". 95% already do work (that figure may be wrong, of course).  Almost every product has a failure rate.  Sometimes it is acceptable (like a toaster) - sometimes it is not (like a parachute), so you pay a lot more comparatively for a parachute.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: Steve Brassett on April 27, 2016, 02:15:56 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:
To be fair - what they are saying is "If you want to guarantee that it works, you'll have to pay more". 95% already do work (that figure may be wrong, of course).  Almost every product has a failure rate.  Sometimes it is acceptable (like a toaster) - sometimes it is not (like a parachute), so you pay a lot more comparatively for a parachute.
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
The principle of good quality management is ...
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.
Learnt from many years spent in design, manufacturing and quality management.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 02:31:43 PM
Having just looked at the CJM site, I hope it's okay to copy and paste from his page about the chassis:

"Since 1994 in excess of 3000 units have been produced with reliability of almost 100% –

Only 2 motors replaced, both having received 16 AC
No brushes replaced.
No gears replaced.
20 – 30 traction tyres replaced
Some 2-5 locomotives are serviced each month consisting of wheel cleaning, oiling of contact plates and removal of fluff, hair, grit etc from gears.
Other repairs have sometimes been needed but sadly this has been as a result of idle curiosity or dropping (or both!)"

Now, that's for a for a hand made locomotive with a chassis ALONE that costs from £195 and a locomotive costs upwards of £495. And even at that, you can't be guaranteed 100% reliability. Just almost.

I think for circa £100, for a similar sized diesel locomotive (ie 20% of the price of a CJM), we actually do okay in comparison (only a 5% worse reliability). It's not perfect nor ideal, but we do okay.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 02:35:49 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: Steve Brassett on April 27, 2016, 02:15:56 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:
To be fair - what they are saying is "If you want to guarantee that it works, you'll have to pay more". 95% already do work (that figure may be wrong, of course).  Almost every product has a failure rate.  Sometimes it is acceptable (like a toaster) - sometimes it is not (like a parachute), so you pay a lot more comparatively for a parachute.
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
The principle of good quality management is ...
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.
Learnt from many years spent in design, manufacturing and quality management.
:beers:

It also means 4750 happy customers. It doesn't matter what the number is, its the percentage that counts!

How many duds have you had Bob? And yet you still buy n gauge. So do others.

So it seems, it is sustainable. Or they wouldn't be in business.

I'll leave you to it, because we're going round and round. Like last time. and the time before that. If you're not happy with the quality control, then don't gamble on buying it and finding it's a dud. Choose another gauge. or another hobby that will give you 100% reliability.

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Steve Brassett on April 27, 2016, 02:41:33 PM
In IT, you pay for the 9s.  If you want 90% availability, you pay one price.  Up that to 99% and you'll pay more.  Add a couple more 9s - to 99.99% availability and you will pay even more - a lot more.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:50:14 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on April 27, 2016, 02:35:49 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: Steve Brassett on April 27, 2016, 02:15:56 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 01:53:56 PM
Like anything else I buy, for the price indicated, I expect it to work. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me!
I can't believe any manufacturer is really gonna say 'if you want one that works you'll have to pay more' .
:hmmm: :beers:
To be fair - what they are saying is "If you want to guarantee that it works, you'll have to pay more". 95% already do work (that figure may be wrong, of course).  Almost every product has a failure rate.  Sometimes it is acceptable (like a toaster) - sometimes it is not (like a parachute), so you pay a lot more comparatively for a parachute.
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
The principle of good quality management is ...
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.
Learnt from many years spent in design, manufacturing and quality management.
:beers:

It also means 4750 happy customers. It doesn't matter what the number is, its the percentage that counts!

How many duds have you had Bob? And yet you still buy n gauge. So do others.

So it seems, it is sustainable. Or they wouldn't be in business.

I'll leave you to it, because we're going round and round. Like last time. and the time before that. If you're not happy with the quality control, then don't gamble on buying it and finding it's a dud. Choose another gauge. or another hobby that will give you 100% reliability.
Looks like we'll have to agree to disagree. I'll carry on with returning duds when I get them in the hope that things will improve.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 27, 2016, 03:55:27 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:50:14 PM
I'll carry on with returning duds when I get them in the hope that things will improve.


As will I, Bob, but deep down I think we both know things won't improve.
My last job was selling UK made automotive parts which carried a 2 year warranty but, when the customer is offered a Chinese imitation with no warranty at half the price, guess which one they would buy. And this was a part which meant MOT failure if it was split.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on April 27, 2016, 05:07:17 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.

But on low runs the manufacturers have clearly decided that the costs of failures are not worth improving the design!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: red_death on April 27, 2016, 05:07:17 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.

But on low runs the manufacturers have clearly decided that the costs of failures are not worth improving the design!
Very sad. Customers obviously aren't important even though they keep these 2nd rate Companies afloat.
I'm signing out of this thread as its just too depressing to read all these posts excusing rubbish quality.
:no: :no: :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 27, 2016, 05:53:17 PM
Quote from: red_death on April 27, 2016, 05:07:17 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 02:31:49 PM
But.. as I indicated in another post, 5% failure rate, for a run of say 5000, means 250 unhappy customers. That cannot be sustainable.
Design it  right, form fit and function. Design for production using the right materials. This costs money _ agreed.
If the design is right then this will result in LESS cost for inspection, test, scrap, rework, warranty returns. AND happy customers who will be more likely to purchase more.
The costs of bad quality invariably are more than the cost of designing in good quality.

But on low runs the manufacturers have clearly decided that the costs of failures are not worth improving the design!

and in the long run, the bad comments about them on the internet and at club meets etc. will build up and impact sales of their future products. They might survive ok at the moment, but any sort of limit on sales can kill a company when you hit a critical patch. A quarter where the new model absolutely has to sell out and the competition also has something great out and a history of "wait and see if you get a broken one" can lead to a failed quarter as everyone's spending their limited cash on the competition's product.

On low runs, it's even more critical to have the quality. Especially in a collectible environment where a good percentage of the product ends up nearly permanently on eBay as they've been bought just because they're limited in numbers and can command a high price. That means the actual user base of customers who are running the product is smaller, so a failure rate of 5% on the whole run is actually more significant.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 06:24:57 PM
Why don't the retailers do the testing ?

Maybe I'm wrong but maybe there are some quiet periods when not many customers are in the shop when locos could be given a test run.

The duff ones could then be sent back to the manufacturer.

The shops could charge a premium of say £5 per loco for tested locos compared with untested ones.

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:32:44 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 06:24:57 PM
Why don't the retailers do the testing ?

Maybe I'm wrong but maybe there are some quiet periods when not many customers are in the shop when locos could be given a test run.

The duff ones could then be sent back to the manufacturer.

The shops could charge a premium of say £5 per loco for tested locos compared with untested ones.

Best regards,


Joe
I know I said I've signed out of this topic but...
I understand your reasoning Joe but why should the retailer have to do the tests the manufacturer should be doing? If they did what you suggest they would have to charge enough to cover the cost of the test and the cost of them returning the loco to the manufacturer if it was faulty (unless that is part of the warranty return cost to the manufacturer) - that is the responsibility of the manufacturer I think.
You wouldn't expect retailers to have to check toasters or washing machines or anything else before they sell them would you??
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 06:54:16 PM
Hi Bob.

No, I would not expect retailers to have to check toasters or washing machines before they sell them.

I believe that there is a big difference between shops selling toasters or washing machines and shops selling model railways.

Shops selling toasters or washing machines do so just to make money.

Shops selling model railways do so because they love model railways.

Am I right Mr. Graham Walters ?

There would be no extra cost for testing locos as labour is a fixed cost for a shop, except for overtime.

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:58:11 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 06:54:16 PM

Shops selling toasters or washing machines do so just to make money.

Shops selling model railways do so because they love model railways.

Joe
Joe - are you telling me (tongue in cheek) that model railway shops are not in business to make money??
:confused2: :hmmm:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 27, 2016, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:32:44 PM
You wouldn't expect retailers to have to check toasters or washing machines or anything else before they sell them would you??
:beers:

Hi Bob,

But as has been said several times in this thread, toasters and washing machines have a failure rate too.

No one is saying you can't have your 100% guaranteed non-fail product.  What they are saying is that it will cost you; and we have a good example to hand in the N Gauge market of CJM who claims virtually 100% but whose locos will cost you around £600 each.

Whether in better researched design, higher specification components or more thoroughly tested products, reducing failures costs money.

And with the overwhelming message from modellers that they want to pay the lowest possible prices (and will ignore their local shop to order an item online to save £5 even when postage is £4.50!) then the manufacturers have to cut their cloth accordingly, and a higher number of failures is the price we all pay.

cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 27, 2016, 07:06:29 PM
I am lucky in so far as Rails is my local model shop (well, to within a matter of yards it is) so things are tested before they are bought, at a good price for all concerned.
But judging by the amount they sell, they would need an extra member of staff just to give everything a whizz round before departure.

I have also heard from a (different) reputable source that "a certain manufacturer/s" more or less uses the Returns Process as their source of Quality Control....
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 07:27:36 PM
Quote from: JasonBz on April 27, 2016, 07:06:29 PM
I am lucky in so far as Rails is my local model shop (well, to within a matter of yards it is) so things are tested before they are bought, at a good price for all concerned.
But judging by the amount they sell, they would need an extra member of staff just to give everything a whizz round before departure.

I have also heard from a (different) reputable source that "a certain manufacturer/s" more or less uses the Returns Process as their source of Quality Control....
Why am I not surprised!!!
:) :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 07:42:33 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:58:11 PM
Joe - are you telling me (tongue in cheek) that model railway shops are not in business to make money??
:confused2: :hmmm:

I think that if model railway shop owners wanted to make money they would do a regular salaried job like the rest of us. :)

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 07:54:25 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 07:42:33 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:58:11 PM
Joe - are you telling me (tongue in cheek) that model railway shops are not in business to make money??
:confused2: :hmmm:

I think that if model railway shop owners wanted to make money they would do a regular salaried job like the rest of us. :)

Best regards,


Joe
Joe, I don't believe you just said that...
Model railway shops are in business to make money just like any other business.
You were joking _ yes??  :)
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on April 27, 2016, 08:04:35 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 06:24:57 PM
Why don't the retailers do the testing ?

Maybe I'm wrong but maybe there are some quiet periods when not many customers are in the shop when locos could be given a test run.

The duff ones could then be sent back to the manufacturer.

The shops could charge a premium of say £5 per loco for tested locos compared with untested ones.

Best regards,


Joe

The answer to that is that good retailers (as opposed to box shifters) will test your loco for you and let you see them run, this is part of good customer service and should be a reasonable expectation for a purchaser. Ultimately it is the retailer not the manufacturer with whom you have the contract and it is their responsibility to ensure that the product is of merchantable quality. The "price" of that personal service may be that you receive less of a discount, but in some cases not even that is true.

If people mail order to get the cheapest possible price the option of it being tested and you seeing it run is not going to be available, the choice is down to the individual and so potentially is the outcome.

Regards

Roy

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 27, 2016, 08:08:29 PM
Quote from: Ben A on April 27, 2016, 07:01:42 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 06:32:44 PM
You wouldn't expect retailers to have to check toasters or washing machines or anything else before they sell them would you??
:beers:

Whether in better researched design, higher specification components or more thoroughly tested products, reducing failures costs money.

And with the overwhelming message from modellers that they want to pay the lowest possible prices (and will ignore their local shop to order an item online to save £5 even when postage is £4.50!) then the manufacturers have to cut their cloth accordingly, and a higher number of failures is the price we all pay.

cheers

Ben A.

Thing is, repeating design mistakes every time you create a new loco is just wasting money, losing more valuable customers and makes your company look incompetent.

Part of good product design is iteration. Each time you do a new product you learn from previous mistakes and tune the next design to reduce the flaws. This still costs, but nowhere near as much as trying to design it all out in the first product and definitely less cost than annoying more and more (now ex) customers.

There's been a definite trend towards being careful with the wallets but part of that is wanting to reduce the risk of splashing out limited disposable income on something that *might* arrive in a year's time and *might* work. And we're not talking about Kickstarter products here either, these are items from apparently professional manufacturers who've got years of experience.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 08:11:48 PM
Sorry Bob - I was being serious.

If I wanted to make money I would probably take out a franchise on a MacDonalds restaurant, or invest in something to do with the internet, rather than open a model shop.

To my mind owners of model railway shops are those who have taken their hobby to its ultimate conclusion by turning it into a way of earning a living rather than "making money".

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 27, 2016, 08:59:49 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 08:11:48 PM
Sorry Bob - I was being serious.

If I wanted to make money I would probably take out a franchise on a MacDonalds restaurant, or invest in something to do with the internet, rather than open a model shop.

To my mind owners of model railway shops are those who have taken their hobby to its ultimate conclusion by turning it into a way of earning a living rather than "making money".

Best regards,


Joe

I think it is possible to do better than make a living * out of a model shop, but you would have to go large and know ya stuff more than pretty well.

I like the idea of a MaccyD franchise, but it seems a lot of money for one venture ultimately controlled by others....Ill stick to doing some DIY on houses for now :)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 09:04:20 PM
One aspect of this debate that interests me is the relationship between the price of model railways and the price of beer.

Until recently the price of a pint was similar to the price of one N gauge wagon. However it seems that today the exchange rate is more like 2 pints = 1 wagon.

So, perhaps the phrase "railway modelling keeps me out of the pub" will appear less frequently in articles in the model railway press ?

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on April 27, 2016, 09:31:28 PM
Quote from: Zwilnik on April 27, 2016, 08:08:29 PM
Part of good product design is iteration. Each time you do a new product you learn from previous mistakes and tune the next design to reduce the flaws. This still costs, but nowhere near as much as trying to design it all out in the first product and definitely less cost than annoying more and more (now ex) customers.

Hi there,

This is an interesting point.  I have been told on several occasions that the Chinese factories like to keep each project separate so, for example, they will tool up the same bogie again for a new wagon even though elsewhere in the factory they already have mouldsfor it.

I am pretty sure that if you look closely you can see that the Y25 bogie under the Farish autoballasters is a different moulding to that under their JGA hoppers, even though the prototypes are the same.

I have never understood this as it seems to be spending money unnecessarily.

On top of that, while in theory it should give an opportunity for previous mistakes to be corrected, it does seem to have the opposite effect in practice; designers approach each new project individually without much consideration of what went before.

Cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 27, 2016, 09:49:21 PM
Quote from: Ben A on April 27, 2016, 09:31:28 PM
Quote from: Zwilnik on April 27, 2016, 08:08:29 PM
Part of good product design is iteration. Each time you do a new product you learn from previous mistakes and tune the next design to reduce the flaws. This still costs, but nowhere near as much as trying to design it all out in the first product and definitely less cost than annoying more and more (now ex) customers.

Hi there,

This is an interesting point.  I have been told on several occasions that the Chinese factories like to keep each project separate so, for example, they will tool up the same bogie again for a new wagon even though elsewhere in the factory they already have mouldsfor it.

I am pretty sure that if you look closely you can see that the Y25 bogie under the Farish autoballasters is a different moulding to that under their JGA hoppers, even though the prototypes are the same.

I have never understood this as it seems to be spending money unnecessarily.

On top of that, while in theory it should give an opportunity for previous mistakes to be corrected, it does seem to have the opposite effect in practice; designers approach each new project individually without much consideration of what went before.

Cheers

Ben A.

I would put that down purely to bad management. Left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing etc. Sounds a lot like the SAAB story where they just couldn't use any standard parts from the parts bin, however good they were, they just had to do everything themselves (and went bust).

Or a better analogy, it's like everyone who's commented in this thread with their own viewpoints on the issues going off and designing one of the coaches for a train but with their own design ideas, without anyone co-ordinating. I'd hate to think what the effect would be for the whole train even if one or two of the coaches might look quite nice or run very well :)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on April 27, 2016, 09:52:56 PM
This has been an interesting thread taking in the various opinions on what is mainly Farish prices, that have risen at, IMO, an alarming rate.

I think that modellers will fall largely into three groups;

a) Those who will be able and willing to pay increased prices, with or without a discounted price on rrp.

b) Those who will continue to buy items, but will/have become selective in what they buy as there is a limit to what they can or are prepared to spend on model trains.

c) Those who are either unable to pay the increased costs due to income restraints, or are not prepared to  pay the prices that now apply. Some that bought stock a few years back that is now possibly 50% or more in price may decide to make do with what they already have.

Overall I imagine people will be making more selective purchases, or perhaps two coaches instead of three. As I said some people will be able to continue with their spending on the hobby irrespective of the yearly increases. Ours is a fairly large hobby, and a fair proportion may start to think twice about a purchase that has risen in cost noticeably over a couple of years, when their disposable income has not, or possibly even diminished.

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 27, 2016, 10:15:15 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 09:04:20 PM
One aspect of this debate that interests me is the relationship between the price of model railways and the price of beer.

Until recently the price of a pint was similar to the price of one N gauge wagon. However it seems that today the exchange rate is more like 2 pints = 1 wagon.

So, perhaps the phrase "railway modelling keeps me out of the pub" will appear less frequently in articles in the model railway press ?

Best regards,


Joe

An interesting point, Joe, especially when you consider the exchange rate for a new Farish CCT is 6 pints :o
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 10:21:45 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on April 27, 2016, 10:15:15 PM
Quote from: joe cassidy on April 27, 2016, 09:04:20 PM
One aspect of this debate that interests me is the relationship between the price of model railways and the price of beer.

Until recently the price of a pint was similar to the price of one N gauge wagon. However it seems that today the exchange rate is more like 2 pints = 1 wagon.

So, perhaps the phrase "railway modelling keeps me out of the pub" will appear less frequently in articles in the model railway press ?

Best regards,


Joe

An interesting point, Joe, especially when you consider the exchange rate for a new Farish CCT is 6 pints :o
Now you really are making me wonder if I've got my priorities right?? Beer or N gauge?? What to do?
Must do both some how!!
Looks like ebay for N gauge from now on!!
:hmmm:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: paulprice on April 27, 2016, 10:23:52 PM
Beer or Trains now there is a terrible decision.

I know the prices of new models seems quite high, but I think when you look at the improvements in detail and general quality of the rolling stock alone the prices are quite fair, even better when you find some discounted.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 27, 2016, 10:26:54 PM
Quote from: paulprice on April 27, 2016, 10:23:52 PM
Beer or Trains now there is a terrible decision.

I know the prices of new models seems quite high, but I think when you look at the improvements in detail and general quality of the rolling stock alone the prices are quite fair, even better when you find some discounted.
Maybe we should change this thread to....
'The price of beer, is it sustainable?'
:)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Yet_Another on April 27, 2016, 11:04:26 PM
Well, the price of beer is now four times what it was when I started buying it, whereas N gauge is just 25% or so more expensive than when I started, so N gauge is an absolute bargain!

Also, I've bought three toasters in my lifetime, and one of those was a dud, which is a failure rate of 33%.

Which just goes to show that you can prove anything with statistics and facts.

;D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Rabbitaway on April 27, 2016, 11:27:40 PM
Just a comparison

Rebuilding the heating system in the house and arranged to pick up three radiators from two different suppliers

First supplier late because they rejected the delivery themselves due to damage to both radiators and when I picked up the replacements these were both also damaged so I rejected

Second supplier for the vertical radiator turned out that the silver radiator I ordered had white brackets in the box in error

100% failure


:veryangry:



Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Portpatrick on April 28, 2016, 12:15:46 AM
I am a wine rather than beer drinker but will refrain from further input to price comparisons.  As I suggested earlier, whatever the relative price ioncreases our models are vastly superior in standard of presentation than i the 70s/80s when I was first in N Gauge.  Whether in the case of stream they are almost too fragile to hasndle and use is another question.

There is clearely a question mark over quality.  And here we are in a similar situation to the London Commuter I was for many years.  An effective monopoly of  supplier(s), who for various reasons keeps putting up prices, in that instance with promises of improvements which 5 yrs after I hung up my suits still have not materialsied.  It is totally reasonable for the customer, without whom the business has no sales and no profits, should expect a benefit for parting with more money, and draw attention to failings.  And it seems that quality is suspect.  The fact we keep on buying reflects only the reality of no alternative suppliers, unless we take the drastic options of changing scale or hobby.

Now having commented on the general modelling standard having greatly  improved since the 80s, what about quality, by which I mean running from the box and/or not failing shortly after.  I guess there will only be impressions from those of us who were seriously active then.  But my own experience is that I never had a loco not run from the box.  And some are still in use today.  That is not to say I did not sometimes make adjustments which improved running.  And they are noisier and do not have the fine control of more modern offerings.  But having read stories on this Forum about recent reasons for return of locos,  by the lower standards of the day, I have the impression that locos were more dependable in the past .

Now I am please not to have had to return any loco myself in the current era.  That said from Farish I have 2*B1s, a 5MT, A1 and A2.  Outside any warranty the A1 valve gear has collapsed both sides and one side of a B1.  3 sets of single slidebar out of 10 is a 30% failure rate and not very much usage esp on the A1.  On the B1 I still had the plastic piece which holds the rocking link and so could reassemble it all and apply superglue gel around the fixed mounting pin - and have applied glue on all remaining sets of valvegear.  A disappointing design flaw in an expensive item.
Title: Quality and value for money
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 28, 2016, 01:07:06 AM
Steering the topic a little to quality vs price.

My experience of modern Chinese built but generally British (CAD work) designed models is the designs are generally good.

My gripe is almost always the quality of the assembly.  For this reason almost without exception I rebuild every model I get, and you know what, assembled correctly they work 100%. 

There have been a few exceptions where bad assembly has damaged a part but when replaced the model works.

For me putting in this effort works and at the current price I am prepared to do the work.

The question is how much more per model am I prepared to pay so that I know when I take it out of the box it will work, or what is the maximum price I must pay to get this.

There is an easy answer to this.  We should have to pay no more than the current price times (100% + failure rate % + QA inspection cost of 5%).

Let me explain.

If you QA every model to be a perfect model, your manpower and test cost to do the quality inspection is 5% of the value of the product.  If a percentage of your production is faulty and you scrap it, you then add the scrap cost on average to the cost of the end products that are perfect.

So for a poor production line with 20% of its products having a defect you charge 125% (100+20+5) of the current price and every model shipped is then perfect and the manufacturer does not make a loss.  He can then rework the defect stock, as it is now already paid for, and can spend up to 125% of its original value in manpower to rework the product.

This is not an uncommon practice in re-badge consumer electronics from the Far East.

NB there are several assumptions here and there will be differences but not vast and the answer its within 5-10% of reality.

So tops would we pay 35% more for a perfect Dapol or Farish (and the rest)?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NinOz on April 28, 2016, 03:11:42 AM
The problem with QC is how far do you take it, what is your acceptable reject rate when it is first in the hands of the customer.  More time testing and inspecting equals more production costs but with diminishing returns.  100% acceptance equals test each item to failure.

Extensive QC will stop most production problems which are evident out-of-the-box but can't address shipping and handling induced problems, nor will it stop design defects or material defects which will cause a model to fail after first use (probably just outside warranty).  A properly designed and implemented QA system should lessen these types of failures but is a future improvement and doesn't address the immediate QC issues.

Rework from QC can be a real nightmare.  Trouble-shooting, disassembly, replacement, reassembly, retesting and possibly repeating the process if it still has problems and generally requires a greater level of expertise, more expensive, than production assembly.  If this rectification costs more than the profit on the item plus production of a replacement, bin it or on-sell.

cfj
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on April 28, 2016, 08:40:40 AM
I think we all accept that there will be some failure rate, whatever we buy, and whatever the % rate may be.
Surely, the important thing then is how this is dealt with ?
I have been buying items from Liverpool over ten years, and in that time I think I've had about three items fail, one a non railway item.
That was a missmoulded item in a vehicle kit, and following a phone call a replacement part was sent out FOC.
A class 159 just stopped after about a month, a quick phone call and it was returned, with them paying the postage, and a replacement held from stock and then sent on receipt of the u/s item.
the third item was a preowned loco which I had asked to be test run before despatch. I had a call to say it was faulty, with suspected drive shaft problems and split gears. As I was willing to take it and strip it to a dummy for double heading I made an offer on it, and this was accepted.
I dare not say how many locos / units I have bought over the years, SWMBO might manage to read this and then I'd be dead  :uneasy: but my point is that each failure was dealt with quickly and satisfactorily.
We know things will fail, and it is annoying, but if the failure is dealt with fairly and well, then surely there is nothing more we can really expect ?
In contrast to the above, a few years ago SWMBO bought a new pair of boots, and the second time she wore them one of the heels snapped.
we took them back to the shop, where one of the assistants looked at them, turned them over to look at the soles, and said "oh, you've worn these. nothing I can do".
how the  :censored: did she think we found out they'd broken  :veryangry: after much argument, and the arrival of the manager, threats of visits by trading standards etc, we finally got a refund, with very bad grace. needless to say we never bought from that shop again, and in fact it went out of business a couple of years later.
so, yes not everything will be perfect, but a good supplier, be it box shifter or, if you can find one, local model shop, can still save the day.
just my view.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 28, 2016, 08:59:25 AM
Most retailers are fairly good at replacing or refunding faulty items
as that is the law. Last major rail item I bought was a Farish
train set as I wanted the loco and for the extra money got trucks ,
track and controller. This was from Harburn Hobbies in Edinburgh,
an excellent model shop, they gave the loco a test run and examined
the trucks to make sure all wheels, couplings ok, a fiddly job with
these wrap round containers. I paid about £10 more than mail order
excluding the postage, but was happy do do so.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Athronydd on April 28, 2016, 09:17:04 AM
I was given a GF 9400 class Pannier Tank originally purchased, I guess, around 1994? The price on the box is £29.95. At 2015 prices this equates to around £54. The new Bachman 64xx PT is priced, pre-order with Hattons, at around £81. This is not really comparing like-with-like in terms of finish, detailing, DCC-ready etc?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Webbo on April 28, 2016, 09:45:10 AM
This is an existential post for UK N scale modellers in the UK and very interesting.

A couple of notions from me. Living in Australia, I have to order stuff on the web since there just aren't any shops around here that sell the N scale models I would like whether UK or American outline. When I buy a locomotive I expect it to work out of the box at least and if it doesn't I hold the seller responsible. A two-way back and forth trip by air mail to the UK for a loco costs 20 pounds which I expect to be paid for by the retailer. A locomotive failure is a giant nuisance for both me and the retailer and it has happened twice out of nine locos shipped from the UK (once out of the box and once after 15 minutes running). Before sending it to me I would prefer that the retailer makes sure it can run around a track. I have bought several locos from N Scale Supply in the US and they have a sticker on the box declaring that the loco has been test run. I appreciate that.

On the issue of the cost of UK railway gear, it strikes me that the locos are gradually increasing in price but not exorbitantly so. Wagons and coaches seem to be worse to me. I think that price points is part of the issue. Once a loco goes over 100 pounds or a wagon over 10 pounds, the price rise becomes more noticeable. The prices that Dapol and Farish charge do seem high compared to what I might get for the same money in North American gear. However, the 20% VAT is lead in the saddlebags for UK buyers and I accept that Farish and Dapol are selling into a smaller market than the US and Canada. In the US as well workers are not subject to the same taxation overheads to pay for pensions and health care etc. 

Webbo
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 28, 2016, 10:28:29 AM
Price of carriages seems to have increased quite a lot
recently, ordinary GF ones often £25, Pullmans £30.
At least with carriages and wagons there's no
electrical or mechanical things to go wrong
and the quality is now of a very high order.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NinOz on April 28, 2016, 01:49:55 PM
Quote from: Webbo on April 28, 2016, 09:45:10 AM
A two-way back and forth trip by air mail to the UK for a loco costs 20 pounds which I expect to be paid for by the retailer.
Webbo
Do they come to the party on this?
In the past, I have had to pay postage for return to Farish (Poole) but they paid return.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JayM481 on April 28, 2016, 09:27:47 PM
Quote from: Webbo on April 28, 2016, 09:45:10 AM
Before sending it to me I would prefer that the retailer makes sure it can run around a track. I have bought several locos from N Scale Supply in the US and they have a sticker on the box declaring that the loco has been test run. I appreciate that.

Hve you asked any UK retailers to do that, and have any agreed? I'm moving back to Canada in a few months, and being able to buy from the Uk with the peace of mind that I won't have to go through the hassle, let alone cost, of returns will ensure my UK outline N Gauge modelling doesn't stagnate.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Webbo on April 28, 2016, 10:28:54 PM
Quote from: NinOz on April 28, 2016, 01:49:55 PM
Quote from: Webbo on April 28, 2016, 09:45:10 AM
A two-way back and forth trip by air mail to the UK for a loco costs 20 pounds which I expect to be paid for by the retailer.
Webbo
Do they come to the party on this?
In the past, I have had to pay postage for return to Farish (Poole) but they paid return.

One loco went to Osborns and they did offer to pay the return to the UK; the other was Rails who didn't but I should have asked.

No, I haven't asked that locos be at least test run before shipping to Australia, but I will in the future.

Webbo
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 28, 2016, 10:37:27 PM
Wickness Models put a sound chip in one of my locos and sent me a YouTube video of it working before sending it to me, now that is service  :thumbsup:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ80bkmiBds&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ80bkmiBds&feature=youtu.be)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on April 28, 2016, 10:45:16 PM
^^ That is good service indeed!

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Les1952 on April 28, 2016, 11:03:08 PM
Quote from: Agrippa on April 28, 2016, 10:28:29 AM
Price of carriages seems to have increased quite a lot
recently, ordinary GF ones often £25, Pullmans £30.
At least with carriages and wagons there's no
electrical or mechanical things to go wrong
and the quality is now of a very high order.

Only £30?  On RMWeb they are moaning about Bachmann coaches having risen to £58......

Les
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 01:39:49 PM
I've just taken delivery of the first brand-new loco I've bought for about a year (a Class 57), and on looking at it closely it has a crack in the buffer beam at one end beneath and above the hole for fitting the coupling hook.

Debating what to do now - am I being too picky, or does it go back? Granted it's a fairly minor issue and only visible if looked at closely, but at nearly a hundred quid you don't expect any faults, no matter how minor.

So looks like it's either put up with it, or a trip down to Sheffield tomorrow to see if they have another one. With the number of problems I've had with new locos over the past few years I think the only option now (with locos, at least) is to inspect and see them running in the shop - had enough of wasting time and postage costs sending things back!

I really don't think this standard of quality control is acceptable, and in markets with competition it wouldn't be tolerated. I buy several dozen computers at work every year, and I think that in the past three or four years I've had a grand total of one laptop with a fault out of the box - and these are vastly more complex machines than a model train!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on April 29, 2016, 02:01:07 PM
I agree, you wouldn't accept a tv with a scratch on the screen
or a fridge with a dent in it , unless it was shopsoiled and had a
huge discount. The problem with uk n gauge is there are only
two main suppliers and not a huge number of model shops
on the high st.  If you bought an LG washing machine and it was
rubbish you could return it for a refund and get a Hotpoint,
Beko, AEG or any one of a dozen makes instead , but that's not 
an option with model trains.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Portpatrick on April 29, 2016, 02:11:20 PM
I sense Agrippa has a major point here.  There is no real competition in the market for N Gauge  models of UK prototypes.  We are too small a market.  So with an effective duopoly, we customers are caught by the unmentionables.  We have minimal effective clout, and are vulnerable to the emotional blackmail of not biting the hand which feeds us.  Not an ideal position but I see little way out of it.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 29, 2016, 03:09:47 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 01:39:49 PM

Debating what to do now - am I being too picky, or does it go back?

I know it's a PITA, David, but I would send/take it back. It's maybe not Rails fault but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't register as a return.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 03:12:46 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on April 29, 2016, 03:09:47 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 01:39:49 PM

Debating what to do now - am I being too picky, or does it go back?

I know it's a PITA, David, but I would send/take it back. It's maybe not Rails fault but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't register as a return.

Yep, that's what I'd decided! Going to take a trip down there tomorrow - I've phoned and checked they have another one in stock. They did suggest posting it back and they'd send another one, but to be honest I want to see the replacement in the shop so that I can reject it if there are any issues with it!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: jrb on April 29, 2016, 03:45:23 PM
I know this is probably a minor point, and I don't want to derail this thread, but I thought it should be mentioned in regards to costs - and it's packaging.

Maybe not so relevant to locos, but I've just bought some of the Dapol 6 wheeled milk tankers, and they're massively over-packaged. And it's not cheap packaging, either - 2 pieces of black foam (one custom cut), a piece of clear plastic sheet (not at all sure why that's needed!), in a very sturdy & heavyweight clear plastic case, all wrapped in a cardboard sleeve.

Although the above are all mass-produced, they're still not cheap. Of the total material cost (not including any design or labour costs, just materials/parts) I reckon the packaging accounts for at least 25% of the total on smaller wagons like this. I really don't see why it's necessary, and it all adds to the cost we pay. I just can't see any reason for it...
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on April 29, 2016, 03:55:24 PM
Quote from: jrb on April 29, 2016, 03:45:23 PM
I know this is probably a minor point, and I don't want to derail this thread, but I thought it should be mentioned in regards to costs - and it's packaging.

Maybe not so relevant to locos, but I've just bought some of the Dapol 6 wheeled milk tankers, and they're massively over-packaged. And it's not cheap packaging, either - 2 pieces of black foam (one custom cut), a piece of clear plastic sheet (not at all sure why that's needed!), in a very sturdy & heavyweight clear plastic case, all wrapped in a cardboard sleeve.

Although the above are all mass-produced, they're still not cheap. Of the total material cost (not including any design or labour costs, just materials/parts) I reckon the packaging accounts for at least 25% of the total on smaller wagons like this. I really don't see why it's necessary, and it all adds to the cost we pay. I just can't see any reason for it...

It's also badly designed packaging. They've made very slight improvements to it recently by cutting away finger gaps in it so you can remove the foam insert from the box to take the wagon out of the box, but the foam is way too dense for the model that it's 'protecting'.

The cheaper Farish packaging with a flexible inner blow moulded plastic package is actually quite a bit better. The Dapol one might survive a fair bit longer but as we're talking maybe a couple of million years for the Dapol one vs maybe a few thousand for the Farish one unless you tend to store your rolling stock in a working tumble dryer, it's extreme overkill.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: jrb on April 29, 2016, 03:45:23 PM
I know this is probably a minor point, and I don't want to derail this thread, but I thought it should be mentioned in regards to costs - and it's packaging.

Maybe not so relevant to locos, but I've just bought some of the Dapol 6 wheeled milk tankers, and they're massively over-packaged. And it's not cheap packaging, either - 2 pieces of black foam (one custom cut), a piece of clear plastic sheet (not at all sure why that's needed!), in a very sturdy & heavyweight clear plastic case, all wrapped in a cardboard sleeve.

Although the above are all mass-produced, they're still not cheap. Of the total material cost (not including any design or labour costs, just materials/parts) I reckon the packaging accounts for at least 25% of the total on smaller wagons like this. I really don't see why it's necessary, and it all adds to the cost we pay. I just can't see any reason for it...

Yes, fair point. I see the need with locos - their weight means that if not tightly held in place there is a risk of damage in transit - but with coaches and wagons the old Farish method of a plastic tray in a card box seems perfectly OK, and I've not had any damaged items as a result.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: longbridge on April 29, 2016, 08:13:53 PM
I have no problem with the cost of model railway locos or rolling stock, my theory is if I cant afford it I just don't buy it I buy something else instead.
Compared to the American market British model railway market is quite small but the demand for various types of models is just as high, that I believe is what puts the cost of models at what they are.
I think people that model British or American types have very little to complain about, the Australian market is miniscule compared to other countries, for example an Aussie HO scale steam loco can cost $800au plus or 550 quid uk the model does not even exist and buyers have to wait up to and over two years before receiving the item, payment for the model has to be paid in advance, Aussie N gaugers usually have to buy an Atlas US loco then pay another $100 or 50 quid for a very average body to fit over the Atlas mechanism, that is why I model either British or American and shop within my means.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 30, 2016, 09:08:04 PM
After visiting a Gauge 1 show today , I don't think we are that hard done by.  £4395 (a bargain) for a Duchess of Argyle.

[smg id=38944 type=preview align=center caption="IMG 1343"]
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JayM481 on April 30, 2016, 09:15:20 PM
To that cost you need to add the cost of the trailer to get it home.  :goggleeyes:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on April 30, 2016, 09:16:59 PM
A whole different ball game. I'd love to have the space and the cash to do gauge 1 but, for the moment, N gauge will do me just fine. Even with recent price increases.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:21:40 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 30, 2016, 09:16:59 PM
A whole different ball game. I'd love to have the space and the cash to do gauge 1 but, for the moment, N gauge will do me just fine. Even with recent price increases.
:beers:

Indeed - and presumably that's hand-made so if you are going to compare with N gauge at all it would be with CJM models.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 30, 2016, 09:29:17 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:21:40 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 30, 2016, 09:16:59 PM
A whole different ball game. I'd love to have the space and the cash to do gauge 1 but, for the moment, N gauge will do me just fine. Even with recent price increases.
:beers:

Indeed - and presumably that's hand-made so if you are going to compare with N gauge at all it would be with CJM models.

No, its a Chinese made brass model that has been painted here, which is fairly common in Gauge 1
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:32:22 PM
Don't know whether any of you have seen these (both OO gauge):

http://sulzertype2.co.uk/page.php?p=home (http://sulzertype2.co.uk/page.php?p=home)
http://dapol.co.uk/index.php?route=information/news&news_id=140 (http://dapol.co.uk/index.php?route=information/news&news_id=140)

Both seem aimed at the modeller who can afford the higher prices* and who isn't happy with many of the current models. It will be interesting to see how well they do, but I would guess that N gauge is too small a market for a 'higher-end' range of mass produced models to be commercially viable.

*although the Class 24 isn't much more expensive than many Bachmann/Hornby models with their price increases over the past few years.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:34:08 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on April 30, 2016, 09:29:17 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:21:40 PM
Quote from: austinbob on April 30, 2016, 09:16:59 PM
A whole different ball game. I'd love to have the space and the cash to do gauge 1 but, for the moment, N gauge will do me just fine. Even with recent price increases.
:beers:

Indeed - and presumably that's hand-made so if you are going to compare with N gauge at all it would be with CJM models.

No, its a Chinese made brass model that has been painted here, which is fairly common in Gauge 1

Presumably it is still pretty much hand-made though, in China - is there actually any way to mass-produce brass models? I assume it's built up of etched parts rather than being cast?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on April 30, 2016, 09:41:27 PM
Production runs of about 1000 units just like N
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 10:01:03 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on April 30, 2016, 09:41:27 PM
Production runs of about 1000 units just like N

a lot more work goes into each model though, no doubt.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on April 30, 2016, 10:01:21 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 30, 2016, 09:34:08 PM

Presumably it is still pretty much hand-made though, in China

It's going to be very fragile, then. :worried:
Think I'd rather have one in brass :hmmm: :laugh:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: 47 years N on April 30, 2016, 10:15:49 PM
Cheap models can be a curse too. When Lima OO (and HO) was so cheap that we all had as many diesels and coaches as we wanted and more.
I'm sure it was stifling Hornby and anybody else from developing better models. Lima N and the large deltic + small mk1s yeugh.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on May 02, 2016, 11:30:32 AM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 03:12:46 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on April 29, 2016, 03:09:47 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on April 29, 2016, 01:39:49 PM

Debating what to do now - am I being too picky, or does it go back?

I know it's a PITA, David, but I would send/take it back. It's maybe not Rails fault but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't register as a return.

Yep, that's what I'd decided! Going to take a trip down there tomorrow - I've phoned and checked they have another one in stock. They did suggest posting it back and they'd send another one, but to be honest I want to see the replacement in the shop so that I can reject it if there are any issues with it!

Well, I took it back, and checked there was no cosmetic damage on the replacement (there isn't). They assured me they had test-run it.

Got round to trying it out at home this morning, and yet another minor issue - in one direction, one red tail light is bright and the other one very dim (barely visible if the loco is running slowly). Yes, this is a minor issue but not really acceptable at this price.

I've had the body off and both tail lights come off a single LED centrally mounted on the lighting board, so it looks like it's probably the light pipes misaligned. I'm reluctant to go pulling the bufferbeam and cab interior out due to the risk of damage - anyone know whether they are glued in on this model? It isn't easy to see.

So it's probably either put up with it or send it back for a refund and just don't bother. To be honest it's reached the stage where I think it's probably time to just give up on model trains. Yes, I'm sure I am being picky and others wouldn't have a problem with cracked buffer beams and badly-assembled lighting (and at half the price I might not be bothered either), but at a hundred quid I expect no faults.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 02, 2016, 11:49:09 AM
I would send it back and ask for a refund or fault free replacement
you shouldn't have to dismantle a new loco which might end up in
more damage.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 02, 2016, 12:05:36 PM
Quote from: Agrippa on May 02, 2016, 11:49:09 AM
I would send it back and ask for a refund or fault free replacement
you shouldn't have to dismantle a new loco which might end up in
more damage.

You should not dismantle any faulty model otherwise the shop is fully entitled to refuse to refund.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 03:12:16 PM
Sorry to repeat myself, David, but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't get registered as a return so that's what I'd do. If Rails don't have one that passes inspection then the choice is yours whether to accept a substandard item.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on May 02, 2016, 03:19:43 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 03:12:16 PM
Sorry to repeat myself, David, but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't get registered as a return so that's what I'd do. If Rails don't have one that passes inspection then the choice is yours whether to accept a substandard item.

Yes, true. I think that having had two now and wasted a day and twenty quid on the train going down there on Saturday, I'll just admit defeat and send it back for a refund. Clearly Bachmann's quality control is simply not good enough to have any confidence of getting an item without some fault or another. Dapol don't seem much better (although with them it's usually badly-made circuit boards).

Is OO gauge this bad these days? I've not bought anything much in that scale for a few years, but I do have a number of fairly recent Hornby and Bachmann locos (i.e. those from the DCC-socket era) and don't recall having any problems with any of them.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 02, 2016, 04:11:32 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 03:12:16 PM
Sorry to repeat myself, David, but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't get registered as a return so that's what I'd do. If Rails don't have one that passes inspection then the choice is yours whether to accept a substandard item.

You miss my point, if you open a model you invalidate all warranties and you nullify your consumer rights. 

They are all within their rights to tell you where to go.

If it does not work put it straight back in the box and send it back.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 08:11:59 PM
Sorry, but I don't believe I'm missing a point anywhere along the line ???
My advice to David (twice) has been to return said item to where he purchased it as I'm working on the basis Rails would return it.
I haven't advised anything else and am quite aware that 'opening up' the item invalidates the warranty.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 02, 2016, 09:54:03 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 08:11:59 PM
Sorry, but I don't believe I'm missing a point anywhere along the line ???
My advice to David (twice) has been to return said item to where he purchased it as I'm working on the basis Rails would return it.
I haven't advised anything else and am quite aware that 'opening up' the item invalidates the warranty.

I was making a general point to everyone. Not making a point to you. 

Go read what I said again and don't be so sensitive or hasty to respond.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 03, 2016, 12:21:13 AM
Why do you think that is correct?

If something is faulty then regardless of whether you open it (you might have to open it to ascertain it is faulty eg putting in a decoder) it is still faulty.

On the point of whether a fault is registered if something is not returned to a retailer - that depends entirely on the manufacturer's and retailer's systems! There is no reason why a manufacturer shouldn't include non-returned but reported faults - in some ways it is beneficial to see what is happening (and also to report / complain to the factory).

Cheers Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 12:28:19 AM
Quote from: red_death on May 03, 2016, 12:21:13 AM
Why do you think that is correct?

If something is faulty then regardless of whether you open it (you might have to open it to ascertain it is faulty eg putting in a decoder) it is still faulty.

On the point of whether a fault is registered if something is not returned to a retailer - that depends entirely on the manufacturer's and retailer's systems! There is no reason why a manufacturer shouldn't include non-returned but reported faults - in some ways it is beneficial to see what is happening (and also to report / complain to the factory).

Cheers Mike

UK Government statute. 

Whatever the shop or manufacturer then chooses to do if you open it up is their choice but they have the legal right to say "not my problem".

On the specific case of decoder fitting, if it is not faulty before you open it, and you then encounter a fault when you open it, you must not try to fix it.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 09:56:39 AM
Goods must be returned in a fit and proper state.

An example from the Maplin website

"The item must be in its original as new condition including instructions and accessories and also accompanied by a valid proof of purchase.

In line with The Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation and Additional Charges) Regulations, we will accept items back even if you have opened the goods to inspect them. You are entitled to a refund as long as you inform us of your decision to cancel within 14 calendar days from the day after the delivery of goods. "

opened the goods to inspect them not fiddled with then or tried to repair them.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 10:19:56 AM
Quote from: Crooked Spire on May 03, 2016, 10:14:15 AM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 09:56:39 AM
Goods must be returned in a fit and proper state.

An example from the Maplin website

"The item must be in its original as new condition including instructions and accessories and also accompanied by a valid proof of purchase.

In line with The Consumer Contracts (Information, Cancellation and Additional Charges) Regulations, we will accept items back even if you have opened the goods to inspect them. You are entitled to a refund as long as you inform us of your decision to cancel within 14 calendar days from the day after the delivery of goods. "

opened the goods to inspect them not fiddled with then or tried to repair them.

That is a retailers view of the Consumer Rights Act. All retailers will have a different view. There is nothing on the Consumer Rights Act that states that you can't  "open it up", the same as there is nothing that says you must return it in it's original packaging.

The Maplin statements apply to additional rights they give consumers under there own 'Satisfaction Guarantee' in that they accept returns up to 30 days even if they are not faulty (in which case they can stipulate there own conditions). These extra condition do not apply if the product is faulty. 

If you read the section on the return of faulty goods no such conditions are stated, they only want proof of purchase.






OK, not worth the argument, I know when i'm talking to a flat earther.

Are you willing to guarantee anyone on this site you will personally compensate them when they take your advice and are refused a refund having tampered with a model. 

Frankly I will be the first to take you up on this guarantee. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 10:43:54 AM
The goods are "manufacturer faulty" until you tamper with them when it then becomes "your fault".  What is so hard to grasp.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 03, 2016, 10:49:02 AM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 12:28:19 AM
UK Government statute. 

Whatever the shop or manufacturer then chooses to do if you open it up is their choice but they have the legal right to say "not my problem".

On the specific case of decoder fitting, if it is not faulty before you open it, and you then encounter a fault when you open it, you must not try to fix it.

I think you have to be very careful not to mislead people - we are not talking about people tampering with things or trying to fix it but goods that are faulty from the manufacturer that may not reveal the fault without inspection which requires some opening up. Opening something up is not the same as tampering/fixing.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 10:51:23 AM
I'm clearly talking about any attempt to rectify. 

You simply put it back in its box and send it back at the point you spot the fault.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 03, 2016, 10:55:26 AM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on May 02, 2016, 09:54:03 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 08:11:59 PM
Sorry, but I don't believe I'm missing a point anywhere along the line ???
My advice to David (twice) has been to return said item to where he purchased it as I'm working on the basis Rails would return it.
I haven't advised anything else and am quite aware that 'opening up' the item invalidates the warranty.

I was making a general point to everyone. Not making a point to you. 

Go read what I said again and don't be so sensitive or hasty to respond.

Maybe you should not have quoted me, then.
Signed
A Flat Earther :nerner:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on May 03, 2016, 10:58:06 AM
Quote from: red_death on May 03, 2016, 10:49:02 AM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 12:28:19 AM
UK Government statute. 

Whatever the shop or manufacturer then chooses to do if you open it up is their choice but they have the legal right to say "not my problem".

On the specific case of decoder fitting, if it is not faulty before you open it, and you then encounter a fault when you open it, you must not try to fix it.

I think you have to be very careful not to mislead people - we are not talking about people tampering with things or trying to fix it but goods that are faulty from the manufacturer that may not reveal the fault without inspection which requires some opening up. Opening something up is not the same as tampering/fixing.

It does also depend on the manufacturer's interpretation of what is acceptable. With Dell business computers, they actively encourage IT-capable customers to take the devices apart and diagnose faults by swapping parts, etc, so that the correct parts to replace can be identified and sent out.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on May 03, 2016, 11:20:17 AM
Regardless, it is reasonable (from the manufacturers point of view) that you will need to remove the body to insert a chip (as per the instruction sheet), so  the warranty remains intact, if all you are doing is removing the body from the chassis, doesn't it?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 11:26:32 AM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on May 03, 2016, 11:20:17 AM
Regardless, it is reasonable (from the manufacturers point of view) that you will need to remove the body to insert a chip (as per the instruction sheet), so  the warranty remains intact, if all you are doing is removing the body from the chassis, doesn't it?

If it's in the instructions with the model they cannot complain, and every dappled or Farish with DCC I have seen has these instructions.

There is no limit to how far a manufacturer can waive their rights.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 12:56:47 PM
I think this thread is drifting away and may fall off
the edge of the world..... :D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on May 03, 2016, 01:29:46 PM
I feel another thread is now required. Is the world flat?
:) :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on May 03, 2016, 01:40:38 PM
In an ideal World the amount of failures straight out of the box would be very minimal. To achieve this then I can see no way other than to check all of them out (QC) before they leave the factory. So many household appliances /electrical goods have an oval sticker on them with the word Passed, indicating they have been tested.
Given the number of duds then this does not happen with our locos. Therefore I can see little problem with returned goods being replaced or a refund given. Of course if people take it on their head to dismantle a model in an attempt to establish the fault, then they may run the risk of the manufacturer taking issue with this.

Perhaps I have been fortunate/lucky that I have not had a dud loco from new. Dapol growlers yes, and some very slight "waggle dance" from Dapol and Farish.

I wonder if a retailer/s started testing all locos before despatch to customers this could become an accepted standard?  It could earn them some Brownie points/new customers. Just a thought.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 01:43:21 PM
Quote from: austinbob on May 03, 2016, 01:29:46 PM
I feel another thread is now required. Is the world flat?
:) :beers:

As long as your beer isn't flat that's the main thing  :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: GaryAlan on May 03, 2016, 01:52:16 PM
I was wondering; some people say the earth is round, if this were true, then shouldn't any direction we choose to travel in be down hill, so to speak? 
I've done extensive tests using a ball-bearing and a small figure, and find time after time that this is indeed the case! :D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 02:16:03 PM
Quote from: GaryAlan on May 03, 2016, 01:52:16 PM
I was wondering; some people say the earth is round, if this were true, then shouldn't any direction we choose to travel in be down hill, so to speak? 

So if a train is going from Inverness to London it should be able
to freewheel all the way. ;D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on May 03, 2016, 02:25:37 PM
Quote from: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 02:16:03 PM
Quote from: GaryAlan on May 03, 2016, 01:52:16 PM
I was wondering; some people say the earth is round, if this were true, then shouldn't any direction we choose to travel in be down hill, so to speak? 

So if a train is going from Inverness to London it should be able
to freewheel all the way. ;D
So according to GaryAlan the train will also frewheel all the way from London to Inverness. I thi k he may have discovered perpetual motion.
:hmmm: :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 02:32:13 PM
I'll have a word with my old mate Bertie Einstein.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 03, 2016, 02:53:43 PM
Quote from: austinbob on May 03, 2016, 01:29:46 PM
I feel another thread is now required. Is the world flat?
:) :beers:

Of course it is, Bob. And the moon is made of cream cheese. Everyone knows that..........................don't they?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ditape on May 03, 2016, 03:16:27 PM
now wouldn't it be nice to get back to the topic that is price rises :angel: :P
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on May 03, 2016, 03:34:37 PM
Quote from: Ditape on May 03, 2016, 03:16:27 PM
now wouldn't it be nice to get back to the topic that is price rises :angel: :P
Oh drat!! someones noticed we've drifted slightly off topic!
:-[ :) :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 03, 2016, 04:52:23 PM
I'd say the topic has run its course, all the discussions about Chinese labour costs,
packaging, percentage of locos being returned is really irrelevant, if you want
a particular expensive new model you'll have to cough up end of story.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: josh_will on May 03, 2016, 06:37:55 PM
It has always been an expensive hobby. And highly detailed ready to run models have always been more expensive than the more toy-like offerings of the past, such as hornby and triang in OO.

I firmly believe that the current output of N gauge r-t-r stock from Dapol and Farish is on a par, in terms of detail and running quality, with what I remember as 'super detail' hornby models from around 15/20 years ago in OO. Ergo, they will cost a lot - in fact I'm surprised they don't cost more, such is the quality. Anyway, a top-end hornby locomotive (say an A3) will now cost somewhere around the £150 mark, I'm sure. Basically we are now able to buy r-t-r stock in N gauge of a standard that would previously only have been possible with kit or scratch-building.

As for myself, as a relative youngster, I am satisfied with making use of (much?) older Poole stuff, so long as I stick to diesels at any rate, as it's well detailed enough for me, although I will concede that it can be hard to get your hands on these second hand items. But if you want the best, you must pay. Now paying £300 for a CJM locomotive... that's what I call expensive. But worth it I'm sure!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on May 03, 2016, 06:53:40 PM
[smg id=39078 type=preview align=center caption="7406435"]
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: painbrook on May 05, 2016, 08:31:37 PM
The mail from hattons popped my eyes a bit,  farish asking £144.46 for 2 car dmu which is just a repaint is it not?
https://railsofsheffield.com/n-scale-class-101-2-car-dmu-br-network-southeast-free-uk-post-371-505-graham-farish-JJJA26724.aspx
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: javlinfaw7 on May 05, 2016, 11:16:05 PM
 Are you sure it was hat tons ? ???
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: davidinyork on May 07, 2016, 02:16:02 PM
Quote from: davidinyork on May 02, 2016, 03:19:43 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 02, 2016, 03:12:16 PM
Sorry to repeat myself, David, but unless it gets back to the manufacturer it won't get registered as a return so that's what I'd do. If Rails don't have one that passes inspection then the choice is yours whether to accept a substandard item.

Yes, true. I think that having had two now and wasted a day and twenty quid on the train going down there on Saturday, I'll just admit defeat and send it back for a refund. Clearly Bachmann's quality control is simply not good enough to have any confidence of getting an item without some fault or another. Dapol don't seem much better (although with them it's usually badly-made circuit boards).

Is OO gauge this bad these days? I've not bought anything much in that scale for a few years, but I do have a number of fairly recent Hornby and Bachmann locos (i.e. those from the DCC-socket era) and don't recall having any problems with any of them.

Just to follow up on this, I emailed Rails and explained the problem and they replied:

QuoteMy colleague and I have had a look over a few more of these models and
it does seem to be a common issue unfortunately.

It is difficult to notice at first, but in the right light you can see
that one of the red lights are dimmer than the other. This does seem to
be a issue with this particular model unfortunately.

It was good of them to go to the trouble of checking several models. Doesn't exactly reflect well on Bachmann though.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 12, 2016, 12:20:36 PM
I feel extremely sorry for anyone wanting the Farish Inspection Saloon who didn't get it from the NGS as Farish are listing it on their website at £39.95 whilst Rails are showing it at £31.95.
Firstly, £39.95 is laughable when stacked against their own Autotrailer which is listed on the Farish site at £34.95 and on Rails at £29.71.
Secondly, Rails price for the Autotrailer is a true 15% discount whereas their price for the Inspection Saloon is a reduction of 20% ???
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on May 12, 2016, 12:39:57 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 12, 2016, 12:20:36 PM
I feel extremely sorry for anyone wanting the Farish Inspection Saloon who didn't get it from the NGS as Farish are listing it on their website at £39.95 whilst Rails are showing it at £31.95.
Firstly, £39.95 is laughable when stacked against their own Autotrailer which is listed on the Farish site at £34.95 and on Rails at £29.71.
Secondly, Rails price for the Autotrailer is a true 15% discount whereas their price for the Inspection Saloon is a reduction of 20% ???

Interesting, Mick.

It does seem a bit OTT for the saloon. I wonder, did they recover their costs on the NGS run? If so, perhaps there is an argument that they are out and out profiteering now from the desirability of the item? I don't say that lightly, as I don't think anything else is necessarily overpriced from Farish.

I think a Mk1 is retailing (after discounting) at around £25. Farish would have recovered the tooling costs a few times over, I'd have thought, on those so it does seem a bit suspicious that the saloon is so expensive (assuming costs have been recovered.)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on May 12, 2016, 10:00:52 PM

Hello all,

From Bachmann's point of view, it's once tooling costs have been recovered and they move into profit that a model actually becomes worthwhile.

After all, they still have to pay their staff and other costs day-in-day-out, so they need an ongoing source of revenue.

Also, the NGS has a different pricing model to most retailers (mainly because we are aiming to be a benefit to our members, not a burden!) so our "new"price for things like the Saloons (and the upcoming Thompsn BG, come to that) significnatly cheaper than RRP anyway.

I can't recall the exact figures but off the top of my head I think that the RRP on the model when we produced should have worked out at about £32 but we offered it for £27.

And, incidentally, I think some are still in stock at that price at the NGS shop.

Cheers

Ben A.
(NGS VP)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: paulprice on May 13, 2016, 09:21:43 AM
I think regardless of the price I will be getting one, because not only does it save me the time in trying to build one, but the quality if the finished product regardless of its source from the NGS or a normal retailer is stunning.

I have been thinking about this over the last couple of days and I will probably get lynched, but is there an element hear where are are all just having a bit of a moan. Think about it everything is getting more expensive, just look at how much a loaf of bread is, or even newspapers. I have to buy the local rag the other week to see if an advert had ben posted, and it cost me £1.05 what a rip off.

When you think about standard of the models you get know out of the box (I know there are some QC issues with loco's) we take things like, actual handrails, brake block and rigging, details cab interiors, day light under boilers, spoked wheels, lights, vac pipes, coupling hooks etc etc for granted, where as a few years a go you would only get this kind of details if you commissioned a professional modeller, or if you had the skills to do it yourself with the impact on time and expense.

We have running around our layouts stock that 5-10 years ago would have been museum quality I think we are very lucky
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Bob Tidbury on May 13, 2016, 09:48:29 AM
Yes Paul I agree about the amount of detail on the lattest models ,but that's all very well , it's the reliability of the models that's  of concerne to me ,it's all very well having all that detail but if the motor fails you end up with a static super detailed expensive show piece .I personally would rather have a loco that will last a long time than one with all the detailed under frames and brake gear that you can't see when the loco is doing what you bought it for which is pulling your stock round your layout.
Maybe the manufacturers could do two types of models one with all the super details but no motors for those that just display thier models ,and one without the detail but better quality electrics for those that want to actualy use them.
Just my opinion you understand.
Bob
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on May 13, 2016, 10:00:33 AM
Quote from: paulprice on May 13, 2016, 09:21:43 AM
I think regardless of the price I will be getting one, because not only does it save me the time in trying to build one, but the quality if the finished product regardless of its source from the NGS or a normal retailer is stunning.

I have been thinking about this over the last couple of days and I will probably get lynched, but is there an element hear where are are all just having a bit of a moan. Think about it everything is getting more expensive, just look at how much a loaf of bread is, or even newspapers. I have to buy the local rag the other week to see if an advert had ben posted, and it cost me £1.05 what a rip off.

When you think about standard of the models you get know out of the box (I know there are some QC issues with loco's) we take things like, actual handrails, brake block and rigging, details cab interiors, day light under boilers, spoked wheels, lights, vac pipes, coupling hooks etc etc for granted, where as a few years a go you would only get this kind of details if you commissioned a professional modeller, or if you had the skills to do it yourself with the impact on time and expense.

We have running around our layouts stock that 5-10 years ago would have been museum quality I think we are very lucky

Agreed.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 10:10:37 AM
Quote from: paulprice on May 13, 2016, 09:21:43 AM

I have been thinking about this over the last couple of days and I will probably get lynched, but is there an element hear where are are all just having a bit of a moan.

As someone who, until a recent medical event, used to spend £45 a week on a filthy habit which was killing me by degrees and literally burning money, I can't complain too much about the price rises but what I can complain about is how those rises are hidden behind the excuse of the Chinese Government forcing wages up and being excessive in the extreme. Everyone in the supply chain has to make a living but, and I aim this fairly and squarely at Farish, to apply the full percentage of a wage rise when wages represent a fairly small percentage of overall costs is pretty disgusting and left me no option but to drastically reduce my pre orders. If my example was followed by many others who does this hurt the most? The manufacturer - who can then be deemed to have shot themselves in the foot, and the rest of us in some other way as the N gauge market will be considered to have shrunk and I don't believe this is the case at all ::)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 13, 2016, 11:27:58 AM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 10:10:37 AM
what I can complain about is how those rises are hidden behind the excuse of the Chinese Government forcing wages up and being excessive in the extreme. Everyone in the supply chain has to make a living but, and I aim this fairly and squarely at Farish, to apply the full percentage of a wage rise when wages represent a fairly small percentage of overall costs is pretty disgusting

We need to put to bed this myth that worker wages are not a hugely important part of the costs of manufacturer.

Tooling is expensive but for the larger manufacturers they can amortise the cost across a much larger production run(s) than a smaller manufacturer so the cost is largely down to the unit costs which in turn are largely down to how complicated something is to manufacture (in our case mainly down to how time-consuming it is to put together which could be because of lots of separate parts or just that the model is of something complex).

Pretending that wages don't have a massive impact on that is just burying your head in the sand!
The proof (if you don't believe me and I see the different costs!) is in the accounts of Hornby, Dapol, Bachmann etc - many of which are possible to view (either for free or a small charge) and none of which are showing companies that are making bags of cash hand over fist.

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: paulprice on May 13, 2016, 11:43:10 AM
I agree, its a fact that production costs in China have risen significantly because of the rise in the basic wage.

I have been in the logistics and supply chain business for years and have actually planned a run manufacturing of products in dedicated factories in china. Although its hitting us modellers its good to see that the basic wages are going up in the country, and its moving away from the old situation were you literally paid pennies, to a system where people are actually being paid near ethical wages.

The problem I use to have was when my production needs out stripped the capacity of my dedicate plants. Then I would have to outsource and effectively buy production time from companies, that sold daily/weekly production slots to multiple customers. The problem then being as your charged a fixed cost per hour, rather than on a piecemeal basis, if your product was complicated to assembly the time increased so the cost per item increased.

Gone are the days when you can expect cheap production in China, its already at the stage where analysts like me are looking at India, Egypt, Mexico and Brazil to exploit cheaper production costs.

Just a though, god I hate being sensible, back to lunacy for me  :worried:

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 12:18:31 PM
Quote from: red_death on May 13, 2016, 11:27:58 AM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 10:10:37 AM
what I can complain about is how those rises are hidden behind the excuse of the Chinese Government forcing wages up and being excessive in the extreme. Everyone in the supply chain has to make a living but, and I aim this fairly and squarely at Farish, to apply the full percentage of a wage rise when wages represent a fairly small percentage of overall costs is pretty disgusting

We need to put to bed this myth that worker wages are not a hugely important part of the costs of manufacturer.

Tooling is expensive but for the larger manufacturers they can amortise the cost across a much larger production run(s) than a smaller manufacturer so the cost is largely down to the unit costs which in turn are largely down to how complicated something is to manufacture (in our case mainly down to how time-consuming it is to put together which could be because of lots of separate parts or just that the model is of something complex).

Pretending that wages don't have a massive impact on that is just burying your head in the sand!
The proof (if you don't believe me and I see the different costs!) is in the accounts of Hornby, Dapol, Bachmann etc - many of which are possible to view (either for free or a small charge) and none of which are showing companies that are making bags of cash hand over fist.

Cheers, Mike

Sorry, Mike, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. As I've said before I worked in manufacturing in costing/estimating, production planning etc and items that take several processes to make the complete article had total labour costs c.40%, and these were expensive NGA and SOGAT union members! I can't imagine the proportion of the labour cost in a Chinese plant approaches anything like 40% although I am prepared to be proved wrong by anyone. Until then you will not change my mind one iota. :no:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Chris Morris on May 13, 2016, 12:46:45 PM
As has been said it doesn't look like anyone in the UK model railway business is making huge profits.
I started in N in November 2012. This is after highly detailed models became the norm but before prices suddenly rose sharply. I was still at work and rapidly built up my collection at reasonable prices. Just four years later I'm not sure I would be so keen to start modelling in N because the prices are so much higher and bargains are much harder to find. Maybe there needs to be some more basic models available to get people started. The manufacturers will know whether there is a market for this but the railroad series doesn't seem to have helped Hornby.
I am quite picky and only buy what fits in with my projects. If something new comes out that suits my needs I will buy it pretty much regardless of price. If I buy a couple of locos and half a dozen coaches in a year and spend less than £500 then model railways is still a cheap hobby compared to many others. just think of the total cost of a weekend away - fuel, hotel, dinner, drinks etc.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 13, 2016, 12:58:46 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 12:18:31 PM
Sorry, Mike, but we'll just have to agree to disagree. As I've said before I worked in manufacturing in costing/estimating, production planning etc and items that take several processes to make the complete article had total labour costs c.40%, and these were expensive NGA and SOGAT union members! I can't imagine the proportion of the labour cost in a Chinese plant approaches anything like 40% although I am prepared to be proved wrong by anyone. Until then you will not change my mind one iota. :no:

Mick

5 years ago I would have agreed with you (when tooling was the dominant cost), but times have changed. We are getting small run products with lots of parts that require significant amounts of manual assembly.

I'm not sure what proof you would accept, but as I said - I see the costs for our models and I know the splits between tooling and manufacturing (and Bachmann's will be similar though they also have much greater overheads than Ben and I do!).

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:23:44 PM
Quote from: red_death on May 13, 2016, 12:58:46 PM

I'm not sure what proof you would accept

A simple figure showing the labour cost as a percentage of overall manufacturing cost, Mike, not that I think any of the manufacturers would dare cough that figure up :no:

Quote from: Bob Tidbury on May 13, 2016, 09:48:29 AM

Maybe the manufacturers could do two types of models one with all the super details but no motors for those that just display thier models ,and one without the detail but better quality electrics for those that want to actualy use them.

Bob

Quote from: Chris m on May 13, 2016, 12:46:45 PM
Maybe there needs to be some more basic models available to get people started.

Sorry, Bob & Chris, but the delays on getting an announced model to market are currently such that, with the best will in the world, I cannot see anyone making dual sets of things to different standards, especially as the N gauge market has been demanding more detail. You only have to read on this forum how many folks have moved from 00 to N owing to the quantum leap in quality to see a retrograde step just is not the way forward ;) The problem is the improvement in quality has mainly been in the looks department rather than the running side of things (although the coreless motor from Farish is a beauty and hopefully the Dapol one will prove its equal). However, that's another subject and is being done to death in other threads.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 13, 2016, 02:36:53 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:23:44 PM
A simple figure showing the labour cost as a percentage of overall manufacturing cost, Mike, not that I think any of the manufacturers would dare cough that figure up :no:

Nor should they because it varies for each model! I can give you figures but if you won't trust me telling you are wrong then why would you believe my figures...
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 13, 2016, 02:40:51 PM
Jeez this thread has been running longer than the Mousetrap.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:52:53 PM
Quote from: red_death on May 13, 2016, 02:36:53 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:23:44 PM
A simple figure showing the labour cost as a percentage of overall manufacturing cost, Mike, not that I think any of the manufacturers would dare cough that figure up :no:

Nor should they because it varies for each model! I can give you figures but if you won't trust me telling you are wrong then why would you believe my figures...

If you have the figures for Farish and/or Dapol by all means let me know, Mike. PM me if necessary.
I'll be happy to apologise and back down if they prove me well off with my figure of 40% ish
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ScottyStitch on May 13, 2016, 02:55:36 PM
Maybe we could change the thread title:

price rises thread - how long can this be sustained  ;) :D
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: railsquid on May 13, 2016, 03:05:35 PM
Quote from: ScottyStitch on May 13, 2016, 02:55:36 PM
Maybe we could change the thread title:

price rises thread - how long can this be sustained  ;) :D
How about: Dapol quality issues - is it that time of day again?  :angel:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 13, 2016, 03:28:32 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:52:53 PM
If you have the figures for Farish and/or Dapol by all means let me know, Mike. PM me if necessary.
I'll be happy to apologise and back down if they prove me well off with my figure of 40% ish

I don't have the Farish or Dapol figures, but I have them for 4 of our 5 projects and as I have already said production costs outweigh tooling by varying amounts (depending on the complexity of the model). For Farish and Dapol who typically have larger production runs that will be even more the case. Plus they have retailer margins to add in.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on May 13, 2016, 03:33:04 PM
Quote from: red_death on May 13, 2016, 03:28:32 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 02:52:53 PM
If you have the figures for Farish and/or Dapol by all means let me know, Mike. PM me if necessary.
I'll be happy to apologise and back down if they prove me well off with my figure of 40% ish

I don't have the Farish or Dapol figures, but I have them for 4 of our 5 projects and as I have already said production costs outweigh tooling by varying amounts (depending on the complexity of the model). For Farish and Dapol who typically have larger production runs that will be even more the case. Plus they have retailer margins to add in.

Plus, if they've been caught out by a big jump in labour costs (essentially a sudden change in government & industry policy) that looks like it'll repeat or trend upwards in future, they're going to have to factor in some margin to cope with future volatility. Essentially they've got to balance their past/future predictions of costings to avoid massive future losses if the trends are different. Something that's likely when a major part of the equation is in flux like this.

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: fisherman on May 13, 2016, 04:11:35 PM
A VERY interesting  test will be the new 009Pecket outside frame locos  just on the  market  from Fourdees @ £200 each.

To me, they look  superb but I wonder about  the flatness of the  3 D printed bodies.

009 must be a smaller market than N  gauge but I think  they look  very interesting.

I don't suppose  it will be  easy to  see one in the  local  shop  either!

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Maurits71 on May 13, 2016, 04:24:22 PM
well I am going to back Mike up regarding the labour cost. 5 years ago I could buy an a certain product for 2 dollars with a minimum order quantity of 600 pieces. now I need to buy the same product in a run of 1500 and I have to pay 3 dollars. also everybody has to take in account that the pound dollar rate is 15 % more expensive then 12 months ago so its easy to explain why we pay more.

next to this donT forget that regulations are getting toucher, new rules regarding % lead in solder is an example, solder according to the regulations is simply 50% more expensive, same for plastics etc.

Like Mike said company house figures are easy to obtain, I have done it a while ago and it s not big business profit wise. 

left or right it s simple we like it or not. If you don t like it stop buying otherwise sorry but just accept it. It is what it is and my forecast is that soon it will be another 20 % more expensive for similar quality products.

If indeed the manufacters are greedy we have something to say but figures are showing otherwise.

Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Dr Al on May 13, 2016, 07:04:17 PM
Quote from: Maurits71 on May 13, 2016, 04:24:22 PM
next to this donT forget that regulations are getting toucher, new rules regarding % lead in solder is an example, solder according to the regulations is simply 50% more expensive, same for plastics etc.

EU?

Cheers,
Alan
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: zwilnik on May 13, 2016, 07:11:20 PM
Quote from: Dr Al on May 13, 2016, 07:04:17 PM
Quote from: Maurits71 on May 13, 2016, 04:24:22 PM
next to this donT forget that regulations are getting toucher, new rules regarding % lead in solder is an example, solder according to the regulations is simply 50% more expensive, same for plastics etc.

EU?

Cheers,
Alan

Worldwide. Most modern countries are tightening up environmental laws to avoid being exploited as toxic dumping grounds.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 13, 2016, 08:16:16 PM
I'd have no problems if the manufacturers had been open from the start and stated either just that 'rising costs year on year have forced our hand' or put some flesh on the bones stating where the costs have been rising e.g. raw materials, labour, shipping costs, overheads, etc etc (which would be more unusual but more believable). Instead, the Chinese government was fully blamed for the increase owing to implementing a 20% wage increase every year for 5 years.
20% increase on 40% Labour as a % of overall costs = 8%
         50% Labour as a % of overall costs = 10%         
         60% Labour as a % of overall costs = 12%
         70% Labour as a % of overall costs = 14%
         80% Labour as a % of overall costs = 16%

Choose whichever % labour cost you believe in and then check some of the price increases we've been faced with and it's patently obvious not everything is down to the wage increase. All I'm seeking is honesty but it ain't forthcoming and I doubt it ever will be. :unimpressed:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on May 13, 2016, 08:49:07 PM
I also very much doubt we shall ever know the full reasons behind such sharp price increases.

Ultimately you either pay the seemingly ongoing increases or you don't. The level of price increases is not matched by salary/pension increases for the majority of people. Some will go without other things because they feel they must have a certain model/s, others will simply be priced out or cut back on their purchases. I believe across the board many will decide to cut back, and several had said such on this forum.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: guest311 on May 13, 2016, 09:06:32 PM
Is it me, or are we not now getting the reduction we used to get on new models.
I seem to remember that when a new loco came out, at £x, after a few months it dropped to £y, I believe something to do with a pricing 'rule' from Bachmann.
Now it seems that a loco comes out at £x, and stays at that price  >:(
I am sure that when I bought my 47 701 / 710 / 711 they were £ 101.96, and guess what, they still are  :veryangry:

prices refer to the Liverpool supplier, not sure what other retailers did.

is this another 'price rise' that we should expect in the future ? I'd pre-order one of a loco at the initial price, but if I wanted needed more, I'd wait till the cooling off period and buy them at the lower price.
we've already lost, so it appears, pre order prices, replaced by 'if it goes up we'll offer you the choice to cancel'.

views ?

alan
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 13, 2016, 09:31:58 PM
Quote from: trkilliman on May 13, 2016, 08:49:07 PM
I also very much doubt we shall ever know the full reasons behind such sharp price increases.

Ultimately you either pay the seemingly ongoing increases or you don't. The level of price increases is not matched by salary/pension increases for the majority of people. Some will go without other things because they feel they must have a certain model/s, others will simply be priced out or cut back on their purchases. I believe across the board many will decide to cut back, and several had said such on this forum.


The reason for price increases is irrelevant, if you want the latest product you'll either
have to pay up or go without.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: red_death on May 13, 2016, 09:59:43 PM
Folks

We can kid ourselves as much as we want, but Bachmann have been very open about price increases and why they were necessary (and that was never solely down to wage increases in China). Either they are raking in massive profits and lying to us (they aren't) or they were telling the truth (and prices needed to rise because manufacturing costs increased dramatically and they were struggling to models made by their parent group when they were not making any return).

No one likes price rises, but fooling ourselves (or giving others false hope) that there is an easy solution is wrong. There is more than enough information in the public domain to know the truth but some prefer to ignore it...

Cheers, Mike
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: ozzie Bill. on May 13, 2016, 10:23:17 PM
There is a lot here about the exorbitant increases etc. over the years. However one thing I have noted is that frequently prices do not alter for a considerable period, while the manufacturers try to hold the price down as long as possible.. Then there is some form of financial cataclysm - big wage increases, raw material scarcity, foreign exchange variances on a massive scale - to name a few. This then forces the maker to raise the price at above what we would normally expect. Instead of having an annual increase of, say, 3%, they try to hold the price and are then forced into a 15% increase to defray such events.
Part of the reason we don't see the big discounts is that in recent years ForEx has meant very volatile currencies and also the Chinese floated the RMB, making it a part of the global currency exchange. Whilst it may still be a soft currency, it does fluctuate dramatically against the GBP, USD and EU, making for an unstable pricing structure.
At the same time, wages in China have escalated by over 100% so that impact is felt very suddenly by the maker and must be equally reflected in the price of the final goods. We have also seen an increase in the cost of both virgin and regrind plastics in the China market, where, unusually, the raw material is more expensive than elsewhere in the world. As someone has previously commented, companies are now seeking to off-shore production from China to cheaper labour markets. This is not, however, a short term fix as there is frequently a lack of sunk infrastructure in the proposed new country and there is certainly a lack of skilled labour. If you look at the various economic measure systems, China has a comparatively well educated and skilled labour force, due to the move from a factor driven to an efficiency driven economy. This provides a reasonably stable basis for production but also does raise costs.
At the same time, we are frequently not comparing on an equitable basis. Many are commenting on the cost of a loco at, say, 100 GBP today. What is this in terms of average wage and measurable disposable income and how does that compare  with 10, 20 and 30 years ago? If you elect to use this comparison method, do not try to recall what you were earning at that point in time, but rather seek hard data about average weekly wages so that the data has a specific reference point.
Sorry for the essay and I hope my 2 bobs worth is of interest to some.
Cheers, Bill.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Maurits71 on May 13, 2016, 10:32:54 PM
sorry guys, maybe I am missing the plot completely. Why should a manufacterer be open about margins, cost prices etc etc. That's an internal thing and non of each of us business. Can you point me in a direction which states that this is a legal right ?

As a consumer you have only on power full tool If you don t like it don't buy it.



Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Dr Al on May 13, 2016, 10:50:45 PM
Quote from: class37025 on May 13, 2016, 09:06:32 PM
Is it me, or are we not now getting the reduction we used to get on new models.
I seem to remember that when a new loco came out, at £x, after a few months it dropped to £y, I believe something to do with a pricing 'rule' from Bachmann.

The only known 'rule' banded about is that the maximum discount on new release is 15% for first 3 months - it's why you'll never find it cheaper than this for the first 3 months. After that it is supposedly ok to discount further, but it seems retailers don't, with some exceptions of models that have clearly been poor sellers and stacked high on the shelves for ages.

I also am suspicious of the secondhand market - the two biggest retailers have moved into this in a fairly big way, but both pitch secondhand at frankly ludicrous prices (ofter little below the new price, even with defects declared). This is just plain odd, and smells dodgey to me.

Cheers,
Alan
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Izzy on May 14, 2016, 10:49:01 AM
Quote from: Dr Al on May 13, 2016, 10:50:45 PM

I also am suspicious of the secondhand market - the two biggest retailers have moved into this in a fairly big way, but both pitch secondhand at frankly ludicrous prices (ofter little below the new price, even with defects declared). This is just plain odd, and smells dodgey to me.

Cheers,
Alan

Going back to the basic question of what effect these recent price rises will have - whether the market can cope with them without serious consequences, these moves indicate to me that new model turnover has already been hit quite hard and affected companies trading positions. So they have enlarged their positions in a sector where turnover and profit levels might be as large overall on lower priced secondhand where they have no trading restrictions placed on them, as on new items.

I agree some secondhand prices seem rather high, far too high in many cases as you say, but my experience with N secondhand through local model shops is that it carries a premium over OO because there is just mostly less of it around, and especially at good quality levels. N gaugers have always seemed more circumspect and appreciative of their models, and tend to hang onto them unlike many in OO do.

No easy or quick answer with any of this is there. No doubt we will all carry on in one way or another.

Izzy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on May 14, 2016, 10:54:45 AM
Quote from: Izzy on May 14, 2016, 10:49:01 AM
I agree some secondhand prices seem rather high, far too high in many cases as you say, but my experience with N secondhand through local model shops is that it carries a premium over OO because there is just mostly less of it around, and especially at good quality levels. N gaugers have always seemed more circumspect and appreciative of their models, and tend to hang onto them unlike many in OO do.
I have taken to buying 2nd hand more and more, particularly from outfits like Rails of Sheffield's ebay shop.
Agreed.. some prices are high, sometimes very high, but there are always bargains to be had.
You also have to remember that, unlike new locos, they are always test run by the likes of Rails and, they offer a reasonable warranty. This is worth paying a little more for.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Dr Al on May 14, 2016, 02:18:52 PM
It's an interesting return of the way things were in the early 2000s - no new production which produced high secondhand prices (actually, ludicrous secondhand prices - £150 for an old 101 DMU I recall).

Now the same is happening, not primarily due to a lack of production (well in some cases maybe), but also due to a lack of ability/willing to access that production due to its cost. It then serves perversely to push up secondhand prices (even of ancient models) to levels around new, or even above.

For those who've been in the hobby a while - do you recall the early 2000s. Did you buy inflated secondhand priced stock? Did your spending end up squeezed? Or did you abstain from buying at all?

The history is interesting on this - it might help inform how things will pan out now.

Cheers,
Alan
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: joe cassidy on May 14, 2016, 02:22:33 PM
In the early 2000s I went into "feeding frenzy" mode and made a lot of rule 1 purchases (too many).

Best regards,


Joe
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Newportnobby on May 14, 2016, 02:56:32 PM
Quote from: Dr Al on May 14, 2016, 02:18:52 PM

For those who've been in the hobby a while - do you recall the early 2000s. Did you buy inflated secondhand priced stock? Did your spending end up squeezed? Or did you abstain from buying at all?


What I did probably isn't relevant, Alan, as I was in a very well paid full time job then (I took early retirement just 3 years ago) so had vastly more disposable income. However, regardless of being employed or not, my only second hand purchases are limited to rolling stock sourced either at our local model railway emporium or from exhibitions I've been to where I can have a good look/see it run on a layout. I have not bought second hand from EBay or by mail order.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Kris on May 14, 2016, 03:22:27 PM
Quote from: Dr Al on May 14, 2016, 02:18:52 PM

For those who've been in the hobby a while - do you recall the early 2000s. Did you buy inflated secondhand priced stock? Did your spending end up squeezed? Or did you abstain from buying at all?


I bought very little during this time (being a little hard up didn't help things). I recall that I was unsure as to the direction that n gauge would go. I felt for a time that Bachmann might withdraw their support for the gauge. It was Dapol's emergence into the market that I felt things were looking up.

At the moment I feel more confident in the future, however I do wonder how much commitment both of the big players have in the longer term (will they sell up???).
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Ben A on May 14, 2016, 08:26:13 PM

Hello all,

The first N Gauge model I bought was the Kato Eurostar in, I think, 1996 but once I realised that its quality was way in advance of anything by Farish I was a little disillusioned, until I discovered CJM, TPM and the NGS kits.

As these were only niche items, I then tended to focus on my own projects to develop new chassis based around Kato parts, or on scenics for the club layout etc.

Then I was asked to get involved with the NGS kits, and that took up a lot of my time.

It was only once Bachmann's production came fully on stream that I started seriously buying Farish stuff, as the quality was so vastly improved.

cheers

Ben A.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: longbridge on May 15, 2016, 09:54:07 PM
I have been in and out of N Gauge so many times I feel like a duck getting in and out of the water, first started in the early 1990s, like a dog eating its own vomit I keep coming back to N gauge  :NGaugersRule:

The only success I have had with N gauge has been with Japanese and American models but being a British steam fan I became discontent and went back to OO Gauge.

Well its time to have another crack at N Gauge, this time on the cheap, the cost of locos these days has put me right out of the ball park plus having read the latest reports on locos I still worry about quality.

So being a bit of a non conformist I decided to go my own way, this involves using Kato N gauge mechanisms under my own design plasticard built shells, there are dozens of small and sometimes weired looking British Diesel shunters out there so that will be the direction for me to head, the mechanisms are cheap from Japan but the quality is great.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Cypherus on May 18, 2016, 01:14:32 AM
Looking over the price diffrences at Hattons seems to be a little customer gouging going on there, late year stuff being a lot cheaper than early stuff, I know this much my layout is looking to be two years in the making and I will be buying nothing new on wheels until it's completed. lets see if the likes of Hattons and Farrish are still in business then.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: NeMo on May 18, 2016, 06:12:18 AM
Quote from: Cypherus on May 18, 2016, 01:14:32 AM
Looking over the price diffrences at Hattons seems to be a little customer gouging going on there...

I think you need to open and run a model railway shop. If you think Hattons is making huge margins on the items they sell, and you'd settle for smaller margins, your shop would be the cheapest in Britain and I'd buy all my stuff from you!

In all seriousness though, "gouging" is a strong word. It means they're ripping off the customer; what Ticketmaster do for example. Hattons have plenty of bargains, and while they might not have the loco you want at a pocket money price, if you shop carefully and moderate your expectations a bit, you'll get a lot for your money there.

Cheers, NeMo
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Agrippa on May 18, 2016, 07:27:29 AM
Yep, in the end you can walk away, but with
Ticketmaster you are stuck and if you want
to see a particular band or whatever you
have to bite the bullet.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: JasonBz on May 18, 2016, 04:11:50 PM
Even after some 17 pages I fail to see beyond my point that "you spend what pocket money you have got" - That sort of makes the price of stuff irrelevant, you just take longer to acquire what you wish for.

It may well be somewhat harsh (but true!) this thread should really be sub-titled "I cant have everything I want and now!" - which is  different point to whether things are actually expensive.
IF anything they cheap, even now.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: 47033 on May 18, 2016, 05:18:33 PM
I'm the opposite to Cypherus. I'm buying all my rolling stock now, before it gets any more expensive. In fact over the last 3 years I think I've purchased about 75% of what I will want. Things I'd still like to get are not in production yet but you can bet as soon as they are released I'll be buying them. I can't imagine how expensive this stuff will be in 5 years time.

Every time they have a re-run on a model and renumber it the price goes up.

Jamie
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: austinbob on May 18, 2016, 05:39:46 PM
Quote from: 47033 on May 18, 2016, 05:18:33 PM
I'm the opposite to Cypherus. I'm buying all my rolling stock now, before it gets any more expensive. In fact over the last 3 years I think I've purchased about 75% of what I will want. Things I'd still like to get are not in production yet but you can bet as soon as they are released I'll be buying them. I can't imagine how expensive this stuff will be in 5 years time.

Every time they have a re-run on a model and renumber it the price goes up.

Jamie
I'm pretty much the same as you Jamie. I've been accumulating stock that I want over the last four years for a layout that is still under construction and progressing rather slowly.
Unfortunately even this 'pre-acquisition' doesn't stop you wanting another 'must have' as soon as it appears on the market.
:beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Les1952 on May 18, 2016, 11:01:50 PM
Having spent a lot of years chopping and changing (and recycling layout cash at regular intervals for 44 years) I'm now at the stage where I have the majority of the locos I need.  In terms of stock there are still a few gaps here and there.

Thinking ahead to the next big layout project- I have a stud of North Eastern Region locos, plus the appropriate stock.  They all see a lot of use on Hawthorn Dene.  I COULD decide to base my next layout somewhere else entirely- the area North of Freiburg Im Breisgau seems inviting, as does something in South Lancashire.

HOWEVER, the incessant rises in price mean I'm going back to the North Eastern Region for the next project- Croft Spa.  I will still need to buy a few more coaches, and probably add to my collection of brown vans.  But I won't be buying huge numbers of locos that fit a new area. 

This means I spend the money I would have shelled out on models will go instead to getting a pair of baseboards made- of better quality than I could build myself.  My pre-orders for Class 17s, J94s and Q6s from DJM will still be relevant to the new layout, as will Farish's J72- but VERY little else......

Les
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: port perran on June 12, 2016, 07:07:34 PM
Well........we had to travel up to Wiltshire this weekend and on the way back popped into East Somerset Models.
Bought a 6 wheel milk tanker and an open wagon but......
spent ages mulling over a couple of carriages. At £27-00 each I decided NO (that is just too much). OK, the detail is fantastic but.........that's over £100 for 4. I'm afraid the bar has gone just that little bit too high for me.
I shall not be purchasing new carriage stock at that price I'm afraid.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: acko22 on June 12, 2016, 08:03:19 PM
It's a catch 22 really!

For the models to get better quality it costs so we have to pay for that but also when you think about it there are more people at an average Premier League football match than there are n gauge modelers so the models are never going to be cheap as it is a Niche market in itself!
But its one of them if we are not willing to pay the price that is demanded then the manufactures aren't going to continue producing N gauge and to the standards that we now demand.

its a cruel and horrid beast it just means we have to be more selective with what we purchase!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: njee20 on June 12, 2016, 08:17:40 PM
As new prices go up and least second hand do too, so you can recoup more on old stock.

I agree with Jason, you spend what you have, and if you can't/don't want to pay current prices there are other ways to procure stuff, or don't.

That said... The new PCA tankers being £28 whilst the old one with a different running number was £10 is utterly mind boggling.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Caz on June 13, 2016, 09:42:08 AM
And at that price I'd expect to have at least the pickups for lighting fitted as per Dapol coaches but as far as I know none of the Farish coaches are light bar ready, the only one with pick ups was the Royal Mail coach.   :(
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: trkilliman on June 13, 2016, 10:15:58 AM
Port Perran Said "that's over £100 for four coaches"

Another poster said it means we will have to be more selective with what we purchase.

As I said previously there seems to be two distinct camps here...those that can and will continue to pay, and those who will decide or have little option than to cut back on purchases.

The next couple of years could be interesting as prices from Chinese manufacturing continue to rise, and emerging smaller 3D model manufacturers get into their stride. It could be a bit like the cottage industries who supplied many white-metal items in days gone, only now high tech and computer driven.

I do not of course expect 3D items to be as cheap as chips, but they may steal a march on the big boys whose prices have often risen beyond acceptable levels for possibly significant elements of the modelling fraternity.

A case of clouds and silver (ish) linings maybe ?
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Bob Tidbury on June 13, 2016, 10:37:18 AM
Like most members on here I will now have to be very carefull of the Locos I buy ,the only things I can think of are the new GWR Locos people and Colin Heard of Union Mills Model hinted at , and the only modern image is a class 68 in Chiltern livery because they run through High Wycombe other than that my pension just won't stretch any farther ,plus my wife had to take early retirement this year due to a head injury she had last year leaving her with a problem remembering numbers ,but she isn't entitled to her state pension for another six or seven years so money will be really tight for the foreseeable future ,unless of course we win the lottery.
Bob
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Snowwolflair on June 13, 2016, 10:40:41 AM
This thread creates so much energy, if I could only capture it I would have free lighting for a year.

(and buy a loco with the savings  :D)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: paulprice on June 13, 2016, 11:39:46 AM
All I know if I saw some of the Dapol SR coaches in the flesh recently and at £23 pounds each they are stunning, and I'm a die hard LMS fan. I think they are well worth the money.

I hope the Domestic Overlord does not read this, because as soon as I can work out which ones I need for a "Football" special I will be getting a rake. :)
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: richard9002 on June 13, 2016, 12:44:59 PM
I'll freely admit to being a bit shocked by the price of new Farish Mk1's in my local model shop when I paid my first visit having been away from the hobby for the last 12/13 years. However I was equally amazed by the sea change in detailing on them, a world away from the old Mk1's I have sitting around waiting for me to build a layout!

Out of sheer curiosity I've dug out one of my old Poole Farish Mk1's that I got new around 1998/99, and the price label on it was for £11.95. Adjusted for inflation, the BoE calculator tells me that would be £18.68 today. Meanwhile a Poole Crab of similar vintage has a £79.99 sticker, roughly £125 today. Of course there are other factors not considered there, like much vaunted increasing Chinese production costs, etc.

Is the jump for today's models worth it? I suppose that's all down to your wallet and your sensibilities, and everyone has their own angle on it. They make for beautiful displays when sat in a case or on a layout's sidings. On the other hand, how much of the fine detailing do we actually see when they are trundling along our layouts at speed?

I dunno, I tend to make impulsive purchases anyway and buy what I like the look of, if the price isn't eyewatering. Well, as long as it ain't a boring blue diesel anyway!  :P
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Drakken on June 13, 2016, 12:56:34 PM
I must admit the prices have increased a lot but as been said before up to you if you would like to buy it or not. Makes purchasing a more picky experience and overall a better experience as I have to think hard about what I would really like rather than just buying things left right and centre.

If you have the money or masses of disposable income then that's awesome for whoever does. If you don't then that's fine too just mean like me your rolling stock and loco maybe less than other but that's fine too.

I understand both side's it's expensive or buy or don't buy, but for me. Aslong as I enjoy what I have that's the main thing  :beers:
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: railsquid on June 13, 2016, 01:45:08 PM
Quote from: richard9002 on June 13, 2016, 12:44:59 PM
I'll freely admit to being a bit shocked by the price of new Farish Mk1's in my local model shop when I paid my first visit having been away from the hobby for the last 12/13 years. However I was equally amazed by the sea change in detailing on them, a world away from the old Mk1's I have sitting around waiting for me to build a layout!

Out of sheer curiosity I've dug out one of my old Poole Farish Mk1's that I got new around 1998/99, and the price label on it was for £11.95. Adjusted for inflation, the BoE calculator tells me that would be £18.68 today. Meanwhile a Poole Crab of similar vintage has a £79.99 sticker, roughly £125 today. Of course there are other factors not considered there, like much vaunted increasing Chinese production costs, etc.

Is the jump for today's models worth it? I suppose that's all down to your wallet and your sensibilities, and everyone has their own angle on it. They make for beautiful displays when sat in a case or on a layout's sidings. On the other hand, how much of the fine detailing do we actually see when they are trundling along our layouts at speed?
Personally I can't get enough of the Mk1s, from your price comparison they seem reasonable value given the extra detailing compared to older models, though I'd really like to have electrical pickups at that price, like Caz says. I've also discovered close-up photography as an offshoot from this hobby, so extra detail is always good. Having said that, I'm only ever planning to run 3 or 4 coach rakes, if I were intending to run prototypical-length trains at speed I'd be buying Lima ones by the bucketload.
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Bob Tidbury on June 13, 2016, 02:59:35 PM
I'm glad my family paid up front for my POPYLINO  at the Kickstarter price although it is a little bit late for my birthday and Chistmas gone I'm sure it will be worth the wait and judging by today prices is an absolute bargain,if we hadn't paid up front I think due to the circumstances We would probably had to cancel it .Im so glad it's paid for.
Still , loads of detailing to do on the layout , and that doesn't cost as much ,just time and now I've retired I've got plenty of that.
I will also have to thin down some of the duplicate Locos in the stock box I know I won't get a lot for them but it will help to get the two or three new Locos in the future, and help someone who's just starting up hopefully get some sorted out for TINGS.
Bob
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: njee20 on June 13, 2016, 03:49:51 PM
QuoteI know I won't get a lot for them

Why won't you? I've been very pleased with second hand values!
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Roy L S on June 13, 2016, 05:53:54 PM
I have to admit I have flipped from one side to the other as regards this argument. Initially I was taken aback by the increases and have said so on this Forum and elsewhere, but then I reconsidered.

The reality is that not so many years ago many (myself included) were saying we would happily pay £200 for a model with see through spokes, wire handrails and good levels of detail. Well all that is here plus in the case of Farish's recent steam models good quality loco drive mechanisms, coreless motors and DCC and diesels which are now much more than a generic box.

Taking that into account the price comparisons above (£125 for a very basic and clunky Crab 2-6-0 at today's money) a state of the art Ivatt 2-6-0 for the same money (RRP) looks an absolute steal.

I think the reality is that we have in the recent past been spoiled by prices being too cheap in real terms and we now see that as the norm so the rebalancing of prices to make things sustainable is greeted with outrage.

Personally I have got over the shock, the models are not over priced, they are still good value for what you get. Whether affordable for some is a different matter, but then I don't know about anyone else but there does seem to be an expectation of buying more models these days, back in the 90s I'd probably only buy three or four locos in a year tops.

The bigger concern for me is the lack of models I want to buy and long lead times. I have money to spend but there is nothing available I am interested in that I do not have already.

Roy
Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: gc4946 on June 13, 2016, 06:24:33 PM
Most comments on this thread focus on locos and stock.

There's also costs of track, DCC kit, buildings, scenics and other accessories to take into consideration.
Money's been saved not using DCC because many British prototype multiple units modelled by Dapol and Farish require up to three chips per unit to take advantage of all their digital functions.

I've also minimised the use of RTP buildings, particularly Scenecraft and the former Lyddle End ranges, unless they meet an exact need, but appreciate not everybody have the kit- or scratchbulding skills to undertake some of those prototypes modelled in resin.


Title: Re: price rises - how long can this be sustainable
Post by: Karhedron on June 14, 2016, 02:30:58 PM
I have a fairly modest and inflexible modelling budget so in my case I just have to be a little more selective about what I buy. Not so many Rule1 or impulse purchases.  :'(

Either that or I find something to flog on eBay. One in, one out!