Class 50, Class 59, prototype HST, Battle of Britain will be shelved for now

[njee20]

My big concern is the state of the Graham Farish (Bachman) range as (please correct me on this if needed) they are also manufactured in China? I worry the same circumstances could thus apply to them.

Farish seem to be posting enormous price rises on new models, which I guess is their way of coping.

[Western Exile]

I'm another one who is disappointed about the postponement of the 50. I was looking to get a fleet of around ten (mid-1980s WR layout) so had earmarked over a grand for them. Still, as long as it's delayed and not cancelled, that's something positive. And if I have to wait a few more years for them, at least I'll make a few pennies in interest. 

[Kaian]

This is probably the most self-edited and self censored post I have ever posted on the NGF. There are rules on this forum for a reason and I intend to stick to them. So here goes;

I am saddened by this statement but not surprised. I have no reason to doubt the reasons given, my personal Dapol fleet is 100% in terms of "good ones" and I simply adore the detail on my 56/58/26.

My big concern is the state of the Graham Farish (Bachman) range as (please correct me on this if needed) they are also manufactured in China? I worry the same circumstances could thus apply to them.

The small silver lining is the fact that Revolution have sent a newsletter confirming tooling has started on the 92s.

I will let @red_death comment / correct me, but I get the impression the Revolution funding model is better protected against currency fluctuations? I believe the practice of taking deposits is common place in the US / Canada (Rapido for example) and if that is the way UK models need to go, I personally am ok with that.

Skyline2uk

Lots of frustration and disappointment being released on news like this, very well restrained 😁

One reason i have taken on revolutions trains, (by time of delivery about 50% of my models will be revolution by carriage unit count) Is that the regular updates, spread of cost and being apart of something bigger makes a huge difference.

I am almost baffled at why Dapol haven't broken away from the traditional commercial and production methods or at least do both.

Maybe Revolution and Dapol can get some agreements for picking up "non commercially viable" products into crowdfunded expression of interests.

[railsquid]

My big concern is the state of the Graham Farish (Bachman) range as (please correct me on this if needed) they are also manufactured in China? I worry the same circumstances could thus apply to them.

Farish are owned by Bachmann who are owned by Kader who are China (Hong-Kong?) based and own their own factories, so I suspect they're in a much better position to weather (hah) the production end of things. Not much they can do about long-term shifts in exchange rates though.

Slight digression, but bear with me: Tomix, who are together with Kato the "Big Two" in, Japan started out their N gauge range in collaboration with Kader (Hong Kong), but once N gauge took off in Japan they brought production on-shore, though more recently some has been re-outsourced to China, which works for them as Tomix is part of a large conglomerate which controls its own factories (there are rumours that they're shifting more production back to Japan again). Now, number 3 in Japan is MicroAce, who outsourced their production totally to China, which worked very well for a while as they were able to establish a nice little line in smaller production runs of obscurer trains with short turnaround times, but a couple of years ago ran into massive production problems and are only just recovering - partly by going up-market and up-price. Interestingly they were apparently using the same manufacturer as Dapol (this is hearsay from someone in Japan who sells British stuff, but both MicroAce and Dapol products were certainly coming with foam inlays of almost identical consistency which I've never seen from any other manufacturers).

TLDR - be big enough to own your own factories/supply chain (IIRC Rapido do too), aka taking back control.

(Disclaimer: I may be talking out of my derriere here, expert opinions welcome).

[red_death]

The small silver lining is the fact that Revolution have sent a newsletter confirming tooling has started on the 92s.

I will let @red_death comment / correct me, but I get the impression the Revolution funding model is better protected against currency fluctuations? I believe the practice of taking deposits is common place in the US / Canada (Rapido for example) and if that is the way UK models need to go, I personally am ok with that.

Hi Skyline

Yes and no, currency fluctuation is something we've suffered with as well.  Or rather sudden falls in the value of the £.  If you know the £ is going to be reasonably stable for 12-18 months then things are not too bad as you can price appropriately, it is rapid changes (eg post-Brexit) that have the potential to be really bad. For most of our projects we've actually been quite lucky in timing, but it has been quite hairy at times!

In general I actually think that setting a price up front ahead of design, tooling and production is very difficult as no one wants to be in a position where they are forced to raise prices having already taken money off people, it is much easier to set a price once tooling and production is complete! 

Where we do have an advantage is that we will only start to pay out money for the large ticket items ie tooling once we are certain that there is sufficient market (we don't have the benefit of anyone underwriting us so we make sure that all our projects are self-funding and not cross-subsidising other parts of our range). That gives us certainty that if we have got the original costings correct and the currency hasn't moved too much that the projects will be OK.

We did luck at currency hedging, but that didn't seem to be easily available for a small business like ours, though perhaps it will be something that we need to re-visit in the future.

Cheers, Mike

[dodger]

BR rebuilt 'Spitfire' after the Lewisham crash in 1957 and that was what I had on pre order. I can't see Dapol getting any more of my money as they just can't seem to get anything right.

Sorry NPN but Spitfire was only repaired after the Lewisham crash. It was never rebuilt.

Prehaps I shall have to dust off my Poole Light Pacific's, they might be worth something!

Dodger

[ODRAILS]

After 5 years from their first announcement I'm too am very disappointed that Dapol are not continuing with development of the Bulleid Light Pacifics. I had pre-ordered both "Air Smoothed" and "Modified" versions and would probably purchased more than one of each although I was a bit worried about what the price would be when they arrived !

The real air smoothed Merchant Navy loco is too heavy a type to have run on my original choice of model railway location but due to the long wait for a WC or BB I couldn't resist buying the recent Farish model. I now have two of these delightful models (both bought on eBay at below £100) and  have changed the layout plan to make them acceptable....

[Smiffy]

Where we do have an advantage is that we will only start to pay out money for the large ticket items ie tooling once we are certain that there is sufficient market (we don't have the benefit of anyone underwriting us so we make sure that all our projects are self-funding and not cross-subsidising other parts of our range). That gives us certainty that if we have got the original costings correct and the currency hasn't moved too much that the projects will be OK.

Cheers, Mike

I think you also have the advantage that this is not your day job, as painful as it would be you can put things on hold for a period or you could even walk away completely.

As you say you have kept each product standalone, so if you get it wrong then it is a problem limited to what you and the buyers have invested in the particular product.   If Dapol, Farish or DJM get pricing wrong then their whole range could suffer unless they have sufficient funds to take the pain.   

Farish have Bachmann and Kader to turn to (maybe once or twice), Dapol and DJM have no Parent companies to step in so need to be more cautious.

We'll hopefully see sweating of existing tooling which wont be a bad thing, maybe we will also see tweaking of early models - could a new motor and more reliable wiring be added to the Voyager and Super Voyagers with low investment?

Regards

Iain

[scruff]

The good news from this seems to be that these models are delayed rather than cancelled...

Cheers
Mark

[njee20]

I think it's a softer way of saying "you'll never see them, but we don't want to admit we're giving up as we've invested a lot of money and a competitor may step in".

[leachsprite4]

Well I am gutted, and summed up by I think we all felt it was coming. Fingers crossed the new maunsells turn up.

Farish have produced the most limited bullied Pacific so far.

Really upset/disappointed 😞

Think I'll be grateful for what I have and work on the layout instead.

Guess this means the chassis upgrade for 45xx, M7 and inattention also get delayed???

Graham

[leachsprite4]

PS let's not forget at one time there was plans for modified halls, dapol. I only know as Osbornes advertised one as limited edition pre order for a while

[koyli55002]

I think it's a softer way of saying "you'll never see them, but we don't want to admit we're giving up as we've invested a lot of money and a competitor may step in".

Have to agree with you on that one - it's a bit like the cahrter airlines who continuously announce delays of half an hour - when the incoming flight hasn't even landed yet !

[NeMo]

Sorry, but rather than blame Brexit, world conditions or the state of the pitch at Wembley, shouldn't Dapol admit that their poor quality control has brought them to the point where they're in trouble?

Ask anyone else in finance or industry and they'll tell you the same thing -- whether or not Brexit is the right thing for the UK, it does mean the UK is going through an uncertainty stage likely to last 10 years or more. While an interim agreement with the EU is likely before May for various logistical reasons, the actual "uncoupling" is estimated by insiders to take a good 10-20 years. Things like trade agreements everyone talks about, well, we simply don't have diplomats or civil servants trained and experienced in that, and then there's all the complex stuff like security, rail franchises, fishing quotas, etc. that we/they simply can't walk away from. Sorting these things out will take many, MANY years if it's to be done right. That's a period of uncertainty, which is what long-term investors and speculators don't like, which is causing Sterling to be relatively weak.

Dapol quality control might not be the best, but it's probably at the level we're prepared to pay for. And more to the point, their 2-year warranty means that flawed models are replaced quickly enough. If your model fails after 2 years, it's hard to pin the blame on Dapol any more than any other manufacturer -- even though I'd love their models to be as rugged as old Hornby Dublo!

I suspect that both Dapol and Graham Farish have spent a lot of money on detailing their models.
However the last two new locomotives I have bought are from Union Mills. Yes UM locos lack the detailing we see on GF and Dapol locos, but they run from new, without issues and dramas, and continue to do so for many a year. Plus any UM loco will out haul the opposition.

I agree that the balance often seems in favour of delicate bits that snap off over sturdy mechanisms, but all three companies know their markets. If Dapol issued Minitrix-level detailing on a new steam or diesel locomotive, I doubt it'd sell well, however smoothly it ran. If nothing else, DCC has meant that all locomotives need to have a certain amount of electronics just to accommodate the chip. Lights are something else the market expect now, but probably like others here, I've got locos with failed lights at one end!

Cheers, NeMo

[Newportnobby]

And if I have to wait a few more years for them, at least I'll make a few pennies in interest. 

I bet the prices rise a lot more than your interest will.

BR rebuilt 'Spitfire' after the Lewisham crash in 1957 and that was what I had on pre order. I can't see Dapol getting any more of my money as they just can't seem to get anything right.

Sorry NPN but Spitfire was only repaired after the Lewisham crash. It was never rebuilt.

From the pics I've seen you can call it repair but I'd call it a rebuild, Dodger.

Also the pay rise for Chinese workers doesn't add that much extra cost to models as 20% of a small wage still leaves it a small wage.   

The problem there is that the labour element, being so intensive, is a large percentage of the overall costs so it still adds up to quite a hike.