Good news for the hobby - backed by real data!

[EtchedPixels]

....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....

I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.

Most people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.

And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.

[Will_J]

Most people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.

And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.

Although this does indeed sadly describe a huge number of under 40s, I'd offer an additional perspective to that. I'm also active in the plastic model kit and tabletop miniature gaming hobbies, and those markets (especially tabletop minis) have zero trouble attracting and retaining loyal customers under 40. There are many with a bit of money for hobbies, even £500-1000 a year can go a very long way in those hobbies if you can get the most value out of the off the shelf products you buy without even having to buy used goods. Like really putting effort into building and painting the models, or having a few Warhammer games with your mates over beers.

I'm wouldn't suggest for a second that model trains could ever be as remotely attractive a subject matter as genetically engineered super soldiers of the dystopian far future - but my own personal feeling is that I think that much of that format could be adapted to model railways in very beneficial ways that might be a more manageable point of entry for those so inclined.

Much of those other two hobbies when you get down to brass tacks, are about building plastic kits, doing the best you can painting and finishing them and putting them on some kind of small diorama scene that can be stored easily. It doesn't demand huge investments of living space or spare time, and the cost to hours of recreation ratio is very high (even with "expensive" Warhammer models!)

Even if you still have to invest a fair bit in an RTR loco and a control system, I think storable micro layouts with kit built rolling stock might be a good format to make the whole thing more accessible to people like me without needing my levels of DIY determination. It's not "toy" trains or dumbed down modelling, just a different format to what's traditional in British railway modelling as showcased at mainstream exhibitions (i.e. big complex layouts populated by large collections of RTR locos and rolling stock.)

There are people doing this and getting a lot of recognition like James Hilton for example. I think it would just be great if there were modern products (not "garage kits" that can be "pretty good" with some work and don't come with wheels, decals or couplings) made specifically to suit this kind of participation in the hobby.

I fully intend to have a go and see what happens, putting my money where my mouth is and all that! But I don't expect everyone to agree or have the same perspectives, and I certainly have my own biases I'm sure.

Anyway thank you for coming to my TED talk.....

[njee20]

....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....

I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.

That isn't what i said. If you halved the price of trains there wouldn't be a huge influx of young people. It's not a cool hobby. I fundamentally do not believe that price is the barrier to entry.

My children are 5 and 9; among their classmates there are a handful who have/had a typical Hornby train set. Not a one who actively models (my son aside). There are plenty of games consoles (and brand new Range Rovers!), and other expensive toys. Toy trains just aren't on their radar.

Aeroplanes are cool. Particularly military ones. The reason army stuff is popular and trains aren't is not price. Simple.

[njee20]

....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....

I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.

Most people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.

And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.

It's true that disposable income is higher among Baby Boomers than Millennials and Gen-X, but that's all a bit Daily Mail. People of all ages are struggling in pockets. Others are fine, I'm under 40.

[Will_J]

I fundamentally do not believe that price is the barrier to entry.

This isn't a cool hobby.

With the greatest respect, unless you are privy to the data that was used to draw the observations made in the report that this thread is discussing, I don't think you can make a substantial argument for either of those beliefs. Young people are returning to traditional hobbies including models railways, and while it's never going to be as popular as gaming and such, there is emerging demand according to that report, and that demand appears to sometimes extend beyond what is currently available. Meaning that there is opportunity for manufacturers to carve out new market segments to serve. That's what the report induces from the data. The exact nature of this demand is not detailed and makes for interesting discussion.

The focus on low cost control and DCC attracting younger buyers would indicate strongly that lower prices are a draw - but just cutting prices alone would not be enough to drive continued growth in this segment. There's also suggestion that the younger market connects with model railways in different ways to previous generations, perhaps due to different constraints of time, space and hobby budgets. So a manufacturer looking to increase revenue from that direction would need to consider that.

So while it isn't explicit that price is a barrier, there's strong evidence that more affordable products are attractive to this market, which implies that they are more price sensitive than established segments, but still willing to spend.

Ultimately it's up to you if you choose to dismiss the findings of the report based on your own beliefs. I'm just presenting them because I find them interesting.

[njee20]

I'm also interested, hence engaging in the thread  That doesn't mean blithely saying "yes, I agree", to it all, and my beliefs are just that, I don't have evidence, no, aside from my sample size of ~200 at my childrens' school in an affluent village in the SE, which is far from representative.

I take anything I see on YouTube with a pinch of salt, hence my opening comment being that I'd actually looked at one of the reports he is interpreting (because that's what it is, obviously such reports don't/can't make outright claims), and that I don't think the conclusions are necesasrily what he's saying.

Could more be done to bring more younger people into the hobby? Maybe. I applaud your dogged determination to attempt to do so. Would making things cheaper discourage adoption? No, of course not. So to that end of course there's opportunity. Again though, if prices fell (say by 20%) would it yield a meaningful uptake in the hobby from new entrants? I do not beleive so.

I have never seen an account from anyone, of any age, who has decided to get into model railways and then said "oh actually it's too expensive, I'm out". Perhaps those people do the very initial research, say "how much!?" and go no further, but I'm dubious.

Concerns about 'the hobby aging' and a 'lack of younger entrants' are as old as the hobby itself. I'm personally not too worried either way, perhaps that's myopic or selfish. I want the hobby to thrive, but I don't particularly care whether that's children or octagenarians, indeed if the market is cannibalised to bring cheaper, lower detail models to attract 'new participants' then I'm actively against it. I realise that isn't quite what you're saying, but it's not hard to see that happening.