Good news for the hobby - backed by real data!

[Will_J]

Hi all, Jimmy's latest video was very interesting and I thought well worth a share. Those of you not into DCC-EX or T-TRAK etc may not have heard of him as he's a US modeller but still a great channel.

In this video he goes over some data from a recent market research report into the state of model railways in 2026. Lots of good news! The key points:

- The whole market is forecast to go through very robust growth as millenials and gen Z (ages 20-40 or so) return to traditional hobbies.

- N scale (not sure if our N gauge is included) is the growth market, with demand driven by pressures on living space.

- Brick and mortar stores are beginning to dwindle but it isn't a indicative of spending contraction or a shrinking market.

- Smaller layouts and module standards are increasingly popular.

- There is an unmet demand for entry level models that manufacturers would do well to investigate to encourage this emerging market of younger modellers.

So this is all really good news for us! I'd be interested in your thoughts if you have any, as this focused mostly on North America, Europe and Asia, we're kind of our own "thing" I think!

[Chris Morris]

Based on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK. That is a shame because N gauge has a great range of models available whereas the TT:120 range is growing rapidly but still a very restricted range for anyone who wants to model a particular era or area. TT:120 isn't really very much bigger than British N either. If what some retailers are saying is correct then Hornby's foray into TT:120 could reduce the number of new tooling N gauge models over the next decade.

[Will_J]

It's tricky to know what TT is doing to the British market. My impression which may be totally inaccurate, is that TT growth was mostly among trainset newcomers and OO downsizers, and new model N gauge sales were already reaching a plateau. Though the market for used N is growing enormously according to one major retailer I spoke to.

But nonetheless it must be having some impact. US N scale is I think more popular and has a bigger market share with no other small scale to dilute it.

Will.

[Steven B]

Based on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK.

"Some" being the important word - usually said without reference to the shop(s) in question, or from a shop that isn't known for n gauge.

[njee20]

I had a very quick look at one of the reports he cites (https://marketintelo.com/report/model-railroading-market). Apparently it does include the UK, grouped in with "EU". Makes sense - we're not really doing our own thing, we're a huge market, among the biggest in Europe.

I'm not sure about the report myself. Not that I don't agree we'll see growth, it just seems a bit 'well... yeah'. I'm not sure the growth is attributable to the things they suggest either myself.

Couldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.

I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?

[Webbo]

If I were entering the hobby right now, I would face a relatively limited number of models available to buy new. At least this is the impression I get from my experience mainly in N scale (North American). Manufacturers now release a few models every year in limited quantities to ensure, I'm assuming, they aren't faced with a large amount of stock that they can't sell. So, using Rapido (North America as an example) virtually all the stock they've released in the last few years becomes sold out quite quickly. If I'm a newbie and am keen on developing a model railway of Canadian Pacific passenger for example, I would not be able to find the locomotives and coaches that I need, but would have to resort to the likes of EBay to buy used items often at well inflated prices if I can even find them. There is an unmet demand that makes life for the newbie more difficult unless they are not fussy about what equipment they are running.

I agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each. I think Kato manufactures models that to me have an optimal level of detail being less detailed than what is currently generally offered by other manufacturers. By not having large amounts of piping, fine details and grab irons added on, Kato models are more robust, presumably a bit cheaper to manufacture, but they still look good. Of course, the Kato innards work very well and this is of paramount importance.

By the way, does anyone out there know where I can get my hands on a Rapido skyline dome car in VIA Rail livery? I've been hunting for one for the last 6 months.

Webbo

[Will_J]

Couldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.

I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?

The UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.

Fair question RE unmet demand, I don't have that answer myself, maybe that applies more to other markets.

[Will_J]

I agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each.

Indeed. Having spoken to a few manufacturers about this (including Bachmann and Revolution) they tell me that the volumes are the fundamental problem with an entry level range. The reason a Kato steam loco is significantly cheaper on the Japanese market than a British steam loco is because the Kato one will sell in massively higher numbers. The unit price from the factory is drastically lower if you can order 20,000 units vs 6000, regardless of model complexity. There just isn't a large enough market in the UK to make those numbers work, especially when newcomers will be a small part of the overall market.

So that one is pretty much a non starter. You just can't get the price of RTR models down any further no matter what features you cut.

[njee20]

The UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.

I obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.   

Don't get the appeal myself, I find it annoying when exhibitions devote a large chunk of floor space to a huge modular behemoth.

[Will_J]

The UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.

I obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly. 

Don't get the appeal myself, I find it annoying when exhibitions devote a large chunk of floor space to a huge modular behemoth.

I think that's a reflection of how most of the British market feels about them from what I've seen and heard. They will tolerate micro layouts at exhibitions but it's definitely come across many times that disinterest veers into outright hostility towards module chains. I don't see it ever taking off here in the over 40s, and even with the younger market there's not much evidence of uptake. Which is a shame because it's a good way for people to achievably participate in the social/event side of the hobby without having to gestate a mature traditional exhibition layout for years.

I personally don't find any appeal in sprawling layouts which are prototypical, but feature lots of dead space with long periods of little or no train movement. But I know I'm in the minority, as those are the layouts that people pay to see at exhibitions.

So long story short, yeh that bit of the report doesn't apply to Britain.

[Steven B]

I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly. 

I understand the dislike of modular layouts, but from my experience they can bring people into modelling. The Yorkshire Area Group started with T-TRAK 3-4 years ago and since then we've seen more modelling being done by more members than we did in the 10 years before then.

By careful positioning of modules we avoid trains passing from 1960s Britain to modern day Swiss (without at least passing through France or Germany first). We've been successful enough to take home an award from an exhibition we showed at last year.

Modular layouts aren't for everyone, but they do offer a way into layout building with little risk of failure.

[JimSan]

I obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.

Prob Gosport, there is a US Railroading N Gauge group round here, the Fareham group are more into UK prototypes, though think they are (mostly) OO if I recall right.

[njee20]

Yep that's the one. I'm glad people enjoy building/operating modular layouts, they're just not for me. But then I'm not interested in the social aspect particularly, so maybe that's a factor as well.

Anyway, wasn't my intention to derail the thread as that's a small part of the report!

[Will_J]

Anyway, wasn't my intention to derail the thread as that's a small part of the report!

I don't mind mate, I think it's actually a really important conversation to have because it helps people who are interested in that kind of thing to know how and where to position it and who to put it in front of to get interest.

It's fairly evident that "hey, long time traditional exhibition layout enthusiasts, look at this!" probably isn't viable xD!

When I was at the NEC last weekend, I had a single module with a loop of compact Unitrack just to display my alumina wagons, but the most interest came from parents on the Sunday who could immediately see the value of it as a family activity that can be put away once played with. They said it had all the appeal it a traditional train set, but with the added value of having some scope for bite sized modelling and storytelling. Which was unexpected!

I think perhaps the time may soon come for a national T-TRAK club or something, where members can organise displays, socials and pop ups to put that particular niche of the hobby in front of the right people, because it could be one of a few avenues for people to enter the wider hobby and add more fuel to that engine of growth that we're already seeing. Which is good for all of us, especially N gaugers !

[OffshoreAlan]

....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....

I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.