Good news for the hobby - backed by real data!

[Will_J]

Hi all, Jimmy's latest video was very interesting and I thought well worth a share. Those of you not into DCC-EX or T-TRAK etc may not have heard of him as he's a US modeller but still a great channel.

In this video he goes over some data from a recent market research report into the state of model railways in 2026. Lots of good news! The key points:

- The whole market is forecast to go through very robust growth as millenials and gen Z (ages 20-40 or so) return to traditional hobbies.

- N scale (not sure if our N gauge is included) is the growth market, with demand driven by pressures on living space.

- Brick and mortar stores are beginning to dwindle but it isn't a indicative of spending contraction or a shrinking market.

- Smaller layouts and module standards are increasingly popular.

- There is an unmet demand for entry level models that manufacturers would do well to investigate to encourage this emerging market of younger modellers.

So this is all really good news for us! I'd be interested in your thoughts if you have any, as this focused mostly on North America, Europe and Asia, we're kind of our own "thing" I think!

[Chris Morris]

Based on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK. That is a shame because N gauge has a great range of models available whereas the TT:120 range is growing rapidly but still a very restricted range for anyone who wants to model a particular era or area. TT:120 isn't really very much bigger than British N either. If what some retailers are saying is correct then Hornby's foray into TT:120 could reduce the number of new tooling N gauge models over the next decade.

[Will_J]

It's tricky to know what TT is doing to the British market. My impression which may be totally inaccurate, is that TT growth was mostly among trainset newcomers and OO downsizers, and new model N gauge sales were already reaching a plateau. Though the market for used N is growing enormously according to one major retailer I spoke to.

But nonetheless it must be having some impact. US N scale is I think more popular and has a bigger market share with no other small scale to dilute it.

Will.

[Steven B]

Based on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK.

"Some" being the important word - usually said without reference to the shop(s) in question, or from a shop that isn't known for n gauge.

[njee20]

I had a very quick look at one of the reports he cites (https://marketintelo.com/report/model-railroading-market). Apparently it does include the UK, grouped in with "EU". Makes sense - we're not really doing our own thing, we're a huge market, among the biggest in Europe.

I'm not sure about the report myself. Not that I don't agree we'll see growth, it just seems a bit 'well... yeah'. I'm not sure the growth is attributable to the things they suggest either myself.

Couldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.

I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?

[Webbo]

If I were entering the hobby right now, I would face a relatively limited number of models available to buy new. At least this is the impression I get from my experience mainly in N scale (North American). Manufacturers now release a few models every year in limited quantities to ensure, I'm assuming, they aren't faced with a large amount of stock that they can't sell. So, using Rapido (North America as an example) virtually all the stock they've released in the last few years becomes sold out quite quickly. If I'm a newbie and am keen on developing a model railway of Canadian Pacific passenger for example, I would not be able to find the locomotives and coaches that I need, but would have to resort to the likes of EBay to buy used items often at well inflated prices if I can even find them. There is an unmet demand that makes life for the newbie more difficult unless they are not fussy about what equipment they are running.

I agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each. I think Kato manufactures models that to me have an optimal level of detail being less detailed than what is currently generally offered by other manufacturers. By not having large amounts of piping, fine details and grab irons added on, Kato models are more robust, presumably a bit cheaper to manufacture, but they still look good. Of course, the Kato innards work very well and this is of paramount importance.

By the way, does anyone out there know where I can get my hands on a Rapido skyline dome car in VIA Rail livery? I've been hunting for one for the last 6 months.

Webbo

[Will_J]

Couldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.

I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?

The UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.

Fair question RE unmet demand, I don't have that answer myself, maybe that applies more to other markets.

[Will_J]

I agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each.

Indeed. Having spoken to a few manufacturers about this (including Bachmann and Revolution) they tell me that the volumes are the fundamental problem with an entry level range. The reason a Kato steam loco is significantly cheaper on the Japanese market than a British steam loco is because the Kato one will sell in massively higher numbers. The unit price from the factory is drastically lower if you can order 20,000 units vs 6000, regardless of model complexity. There just isn't a large enough market in the UK to make those numbers work, especially when newcomers will be a small part of the overall market.

So that one is pretty much a non starter. You just can't get the price of RTR models down any further no matter what features you cut.