Hi all, Jimmy's latest video was very interesting and I thought well worth a share. Those of you not into DCC-EX or T-TRAK etc may not have heard of him as he's a US modeller but still a great channel.
In this video he goes over some data from a recent market research report into the state of model railways in 2026. Lots of good news! The key points:
- The whole market is forecast to go through very robust growth as millenials and gen Z (ages 20-40 or so) return to traditional hobbies.
- N scale (not sure if our N gauge is included) is the growth market, with demand driven by pressures on living space.
- Brick and mortar stores are beginning to dwindle but it isn't a indicative of spending contraction or a shrinking market.
- Smaller layouts and module standards are increasingly popular.
- There is an unmet demand for entry level models that manufacturers would do well to investigate to encourage this emerging market of younger modellers.
So this is all really good news for us! I'd be interested in your thoughts if you have any, as this focused mostly on North America, Europe and Asia, we're kind of our own "thing" I think!
Based on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK. That is a shame because N gauge has a great range of models available whereas the TT:120 range is growing rapidly but still a very restricted range for anyone who wants to model a particular era or area. TT:120 isn't really very much bigger than British N either. If what some retailers are saying is correct then Hornby's foray into TT:120 could reduce the number of new tooling N gauge models over the next decade.
It's tricky to know what TT is doing to the British market. My impression which may be totally inaccurate, is that TT growth was mostly among trainset newcomers and OO downsizers, and new model N gauge sales were already reaching a plateau. Though the market for used N is growing enormously according to one major retailer I spoke to.
But nonetheless it must be having some impact. US N scale is I think more popular and has a bigger market share with no other small scale to dilute it.
Will.
Quote from: Chris Morris on May 01, 2026, 05:15:01 PMBased on what some retailers have said, TT:120 is damaging N gauge sales in the UK.
"Some" being the important word - usually said without reference to the shop(s) in question, or from a shop that isn't known for n gauge.
I had a very quick look at one of the reports he cites (https://marketintelo.com/report/model-railroading-market). Apparently it does include the UK, grouped in with "EU". Makes sense - we're not really doing our own thing, we're a huge market, among the biggest in Europe.
I'm not sure about the report myself. Not that I don't agree we'll see growth, it just seems a bit 'well... yeah'. I'm not sure the growth is attributable to the things they suggest either myself.
Couldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.
I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?
If I were entering the hobby right now, I would face a relatively limited number of models available to buy new. At least this is the impression I get from my experience mainly in N scale (North American). Manufacturers now release a few models every year in limited quantities to ensure, I'm assuming, they aren't faced with a large amount of stock that they can't sell. So, using Rapido (North America as an example) virtually all the stock they've released in the last few years becomes sold out quite quickly. If I'm a newbie and am keen on developing a model railway of Canadian Pacific passenger for example, I would not be able to find the locomotives and coaches that I need, but would have to resort to the likes of EBay to buy used items often at well inflated prices if I can even find them. There is an unmet demand that makes life for the newbie more difficult unless they are not fussy about what equipment they are running.
I agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each. I think Kato manufactures models that to me have an optimal level of detail being less detailed than what is currently generally offered by other manufacturers. By not having large amounts of piping, fine details and grab irons added on, Kato models are more robust, presumably a bit cheaper to manufacture, but they still look good. Of course, the Kato innards work very well and this is of paramount importance.
By the way, does anyone out there know where I can get my hands on a Rapido skyline dome car in VIA Rail livery? I've been hunting for one for the last 6 months.
Webbo
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 12:00:20 AMCouldn't care less about modular standards, indeed I generally really dislike modular layouts, but if they work for the builders then great.
I think we need to be careful what we wish for re: low detail 'entry level' models. The market isn't big enough for two ranges. I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense, and I don't want models being 'dumbed down' to suit a market I'm not convinced really exists. What's the evidence for unmet demand?
The UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.
Fair question RE unmet demand, I don't have that answer myself, maybe that applies more to other markets.
Quote from: Webbo on May 02, 2026, 07:08:31 AMI agree with Nick that having a detailed model line and a cruder line would further complicate the lives of manufacturers by reducing the volumes of each.
Indeed. Having spoken to a few manufacturers about this (including Bachmann and Revolution) they tell me that the volumes are the fundamental problem with an entry level range. The reason a Kato steam loco is significantly cheaper on the Japanese market than a British steam loco is because the Kato one will sell in massively higher numbers. The unit price from the factory is drastically lower if you can order 20,000 units vs 6000, regardless of model complexity. There just isn't a large enough market in the UK to make those numbers work, especially when newcomers will be a small part of the overall market.
So that one is pretty much a non starter. You just can't get the price of RTR models down any further no matter what features you cut.
Quote from: Will_J on May 02, 2026, 07:59:48 AMThe UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.
I obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.
Don't get the appeal myself, I find it annoying when exhibitions devote a large chunk of floor space to a huge modular behemoth.
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 02:29:40 PMQuote from: Will_J on May 02, 2026, 07:59:48 AMThe UK is generally much less interested in modular layouts than the US or Australia. Much less interested may even be grossly understating it. Established British hobbyists are comfortable with long established layout building traditions and are unlikely to adopt anything new I think, especially on the exhibition circuit.
I obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.
Don't get the appeal myself, I find it annoying when exhibitions devote a large chunk of floor space to a huge modular behemoth.
I think that's a reflection of how most of the British market feels about them from what I've seen and heard. They will tolerate micro layouts at exhibitions but it's definitely come across many times that disinterest veers into outright hostility towards module chains. I don't see it ever taking off here in the over 40s, and even with the younger market there's not much evidence of uptake. Which is a shame because it's a good way for people to achievably participate in the social/event side of the hobby without having to gestate a mature traditional exhibition layout for years.
I personally don't find any appeal in sprawling layouts which are prototypical, but feature lots of dead space with long periods of little or no train movement. But I know I'm in the minority, as those are the layouts that people pay to see at exhibitions.
So long story short, yeh that bit of the report doesn't apply to Britain.
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 02:29:40 PMI really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.
I understand the dislike of modular layouts, but from my experience they can bring people into modelling. The Yorkshire Area Group started with T-TRAK 3-4 years ago and since then we've seen more modelling being done by more members than we did in the 10 years before then.
By careful positioning of modules we avoid trains passing from 1960s Britain to modern day Swiss (without at least passing through France or Germany first). We've been successful enough to take home an award from an exhibition we showed at last year.
Modular layouts aren't for everyone, but they do offer a way into layout building with little risk of failure.
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 02:29:40 PMI obviously don't represent the market, but for me they just grate visually. There are some US ones which are pretty good, I think it's Fareham or Gosport or someone who have a decent one, but in general I really dislike the wild variations from one module to the next, not to mention the fact they're generally just race track layouts with totally incongruous trains circulating endlessly.
Prob Gosport, there is a US Railroading N Gauge group round here, the Fareham group are more into UK prototypes, though think they are (mostly) OO if I recall right.
Yep that's the one. I'm glad people enjoy building/operating modular layouts, they're just not for me. But then I'm not interested in the social aspect particularly, so maybe that's a factor as well.
Anyway, wasn't my intention to derail the thread as that's a small part of the report!
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 10:59:09 PMAnyway, wasn't my intention to derail the thread as that's a small part of the report!
I don't mind mate, I think it's actually a really important conversation to have because it helps people who are interested in that kind of thing to know how and where to position it and who to put it in front of to get interest.
It's fairly evident that "hey, long time traditional exhibition layout enthusiasts, look at this!" probably isn't viable xD!
When I was at the NEC last weekend, I had a single module with a loop of compact Unitrack just to display my alumina wagons, but the most interest came from parents on the Sunday who could immediately see the value of it as a family activity that can be put away once played with. They said it had all the appeal it a traditional train set, but with the added value of having some scope for bite sized modelling and storytelling. Which was unexpected!
I think perhaps the time may soon come for a national T-TRAK club or something, where members can organise displays, socials and pop ups to put that particular niche of the hobby in front of the right people, because it could be one of a few avenues for people to enter the wider hobby and add more fuel to that engine of growth that we're already seeing. Which is good for all of us, especially N gaugers :)!
Quote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 12:00:20 AM....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....
I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.
Quote from: OffshoreAlan on May 22, 2026, 09:49:40 AMQuote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 12:00:20 AM....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....
I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.
Most people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.
And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.
Quote from: EtchedPixels on May 22, 2026, 11:22:40 AMMost people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.
And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.
Although this does indeed sadly describe a huge number of under 40s, I'd offer an additional perspective to that. I'm also active in the plastic model kit and tabletop miniature gaming hobbies, and those markets (especially tabletop minis) have zero trouble attracting and retaining loyal customers under 40. There are many with a bit of money for hobbies, even £500-1000 a year can go a very long way in those hobbies if you can get the most value out of the off the shelf products you buy without even having to buy used goods. Like really putting effort into building and painting the models, or having a few Warhammer games with your mates over beers.
I'm wouldn't suggest for a second that model trains could ever be as remotely attractive a subject matter as genetically engineered super soldiers of the dystopian far future - but my own personal feeling is that I think that much of that format could be adapted to model railways in very beneficial ways that might be a more manageable point of entry for those so inclined.
Much of those other two hobbies when you get down to brass tacks, are about building plastic kits, doing the best you can painting and finishing them and putting them on some kind of small diorama scene that can be stored easily. It doesn't demand huge investments of living space or spare time, and the cost to hours of recreation ratio is very high (even with "expensive" Warhammer models!)
Even if you still have to invest a fair bit in an RTR loco and a control system, I think storable micro layouts with kit built rolling stock might be a good format to make the whole thing more accessible to people like me without needing my levels of DIY determination. It's not "toy" trains or dumbed down modelling, just a different format to what's traditional in British railway modelling as showcased at mainstream exhibitions (i.e. big complex layouts populated by large collections of RTR locos and rolling stock.)
There are people doing this and getting a lot of recognition like James Hilton for example. I think it would just be great if there were modern products (not "garage kits" that can be "pretty good" with some work and don't come with wheels, decals or couplings) made specifically to suit this kind of participation in the hobby.
I fully intend to have a go and see what happens, putting my money where my mouth is and all that! But I don't expect everyone to agree or have the same perspectives, and I certainly have my own biases I'm sure.
Anyway thank you for coming to my TED talk.....
Quote from: OffshoreAlan on May 22, 2026, 09:49:40 AMQuote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 12:00:20 AM....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....
I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.
That isn't what i said. If you halved the price of trains there wouldn't be a huge influx of young people. It's not a cool hobby. I fundamentally do not believe that price is the barrier to entry.
My children are 5 and 9; among their classmates there are a handful who have/had a typical Hornby train set. Not a one who actively models (my son aside). There are plenty of games consoles (and brand new Range Rovers!), and other expensive toys. Toy trains just aren't on their radar.
Aeroplanes are cool. Particularly military ones. The reason army stuff is popular and trains aren't is not price. Simple.
Quote from: EtchedPixels on May 22, 2026, 11:22:40 AMQuote from: OffshoreAlan on May 22, 2026, 09:49:40 AMQuote from: njee20 on May 02, 2026, 12:00:20 AM....... I don't believe that price is a barrier to entry for young people in any meaningful sense.....
I would challenge that statement. You only have to look at the predominant age group exhibiting or attending shows. It's certainly not youngsters.
Most people under 40 I know are having trouble paying the rent let alone buying model trains, not that they'd have anywhere to put them in their pokey HMO room either.
And a value range really isn't going to help because they have zero money despite working 6 days a week.
It's true that disposable income is higher among Baby Boomers than Millennials and Gen-X, but that's all a bit Daily Mail. People of all ages are struggling in pockets. Others are fine, I'm under 40.
Quote from: njee20 on May 22, 2026, 05:32:59 PMI fundamentally do not believe that price is the barrier to entry.
This isn't a cool hobby.
With the greatest respect, unless you are privy to the data that was used to draw the observations made in the report that this thread is discussing, I don't think you can make a substantial argument for either of those beliefs. Young people
are returning to traditional hobbies including models railways, and while it's never going to be as popular as gaming and such, there is emerging demand according to that report, and that demand appears to sometimes extend beyond what is currently available. Meaning that there is opportunity for manufacturers to carve out new market segments to serve. That's what the report induces from the data. The exact nature of this demand is not detailed and makes for interesting discussion.
The focus on low cost control and DCC attracting younger buyers would indicate strongly that lower prices are a draw - but just cutting prices alone would not be enough to drive continued growth in this segment. There's also suggestion that the younger market connects with model railways in different ways to previous generations, perhaps due to different constraints of time, space and hobby budgets. So a manufacturer looking to increase revenue from that direction would need to consider that.
So while it isn't explicit that price is a barrier, there's strong evidence that more affordable products are attractive to this market, which implies that they are more price sensitive than established segments, but still willing to spend.
Ultimately it's up to you if you choose to dismiss the findings of the report based on your own beliefs. I'm just presenting them because I find them interesting.
I'm also interested, hence engaging in the thread ;) That doesn't mean blithely saying "yes, I agree", to it all, and my beliefs are just that, I don't have evidence, no, aside from my sample size of ~200 at my childrens' school in an affluent village in the SE, which is far from representative.
I take anything I see on YouTube with a pinch of salt, hence my opening comment being that I'd actually looked at one of the reports he is interpreting (because that's what it is, obviously such reports don't/can't make outright claims), and that I don't think the conclusions are necesasrily what he's saying.
Could more be done to bring more younger people into the hobby? Maybe. I applaud your dogged determination to attempt to do so. Would making things cheaper discourage adoption? No, of course not. So to that end of course there's opportunity. Again though, if prices fell (say by 20%) would it yield a meaningful uptake in the hobby from new entrants? I do not beleive so.
I have never seen an account from anyone, of any age, who has decided to get into model railways and then said "oh actually it's too expensive, I'm out". Perhaps those people do the very initial research, say "how much!?" and go no further, but I'm dubious.
Concerns about 'the hobby aging' and a 'lack of younger entrants' are as old as the hobby itself. I'm personally not too worried either way, perhaps that's myopic or selfish. I want the hobby to thrive, but I don't particularly care whether that's children or octagenarians, indeed if the market is cannibalised to bring cheaper, lower detail models to attract 'new participants' then I'm actively against it. I realise that isn't quite what you're saying, but it's not hard to see that happening.
Your last paragraph is so true. The first copy of Railway Modeller I ever got was April 1957. There were concerns about youngsters back then, and it has been a recurring theme in the magazine ever since.
Personally, I think it's a non-issue.
Quote from: Bealman on May 23, 2026, 01:51:27 AMYour last paragraph is so true. The first copy of Railway Modeller I ever got was April 1957. There were concerns about youngsters back then, and it has been a recurring theme in the magazine ever since.
Personally, I think it's a non-issue.
This point as raised by the market report isn't that there aren't enough young people entering the hobby, it's that the young people entering the hobby engage differently with it than older generations and have different demands, some of which aren't currently being met, and that's an interesting opportunity for manufacturers.
"Young people aren't interested in model railways" is not supported by the data and is as you say, not an issue - hence the title of this thread.
Folks
Perhaps we can make trains a bit cooler for the younger generation by altering our tactics..
Here is the transformer Astrotrain who transforms into a space shuttle as well as a railway locomotive.
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/159/4229-230526075345.jpeg) (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=159920)
All seriousness aside, I agree with Nic in that I suspect price is not the major factor explaining why younger folk seem to be less interested in model railways. I have the feeling that a significant factor may be the lack of room available to the young and not quite so young. Even a simple roundy-roundy will require a minimum of 2'6'' x 5' say which is a largish chunk of space to fit in a child's bedroom (even more space required for OO). For younger adults, a similar space will have to be found in a flat or bungalow competing with the kids' and the partner's living space. Octogenarians may have had the kids move out by that stage in life and so may have more space options (and time to build a layout too). Just a thought from me based on my personal experience. My layout Deadwood didn't really get legs until after I got a shed and I retired.
Webbo
Quote from: Webbo on May 24, 2026, 07:52:43 AMFolks
Perhaps we can make trains a bit cooler for the younger generation by altering our tactics..
All seriousness aside, I agree with Nic in that I suspect price is not the major factor explaining why younger folk seem to be less interested in model railways. I have the feeling that a significant factor may be the lack of room available to the young and not quite so young. Even a simple roundy-roundy will require a minimum of 2'6'' x 5' say which is a largish chunk of space to fit in a child's bedroom (even more space required for OO). For younger adults, a similar space will have to be found in a flat or bungalow competing with the kids' and the partner's living space. Octogenarians may have had the kids move out by that stage in life and so may have more space options (and time to build a layout too). Just a thought from me based on my personal experience. My layout Deadwood didn't really get legs until after I got a shed and I retired.
Webbo
So far this year I have built 2 N scale layouts based on really small footprints with the aim of taking them to exhibitions and shows and entertaining younger children. They both feature moving buses and two N gauge tram stations. For a parent it is not so daunting to be presented with a layout based on a sheet of A2 paper 594mm x 420mm which in its simplest form could be less than 50mm thick with minimal bracing etc. The layouts are powered by phone charging banks so no mains electricity and use a Kato Pocket Line Controller which is also hooked up to a Brimal automatic shuttle module powered by a PP3 battery. An A1 sized version is at a show on Monday and hopefully will entertain some young and old visitors.
Quote from: Webbo on May 24, 2026, 07:52:43 AMEven a simple roundy-roundy will require a minimum of 2'6'' x 5' say which is a largish chunk of space to fit in a child's bedroom
But that size could be a 'gazunder' (it gazunder the bed) and with some thought could be dustproofed. Maybe even some castors fitted :hmmm:
When I was a little kid it couldn't go under the bed. That's where monsters lurked. :uneasy:
Quote from: Webbo on May 24, 2026, 07:52:43 AMI have the feeling that a significant factor may be the lack of room available to the young and not quite so young. Even a simple roundy-roundy will require a minimum of 2'6'' x 5' say which is a largish chunk of space to fit in a child's bedroom (even more space required for OO). For younger adults, a similar space will have to be found in a flat or bungalow competing with the kids' and the partner's living space. Octogenarians may have had the kids move out by that stage in life and so may have more space options (and time to build a layout too). Just a thought from me based on my personal experience. My layout Deadwood didn't really get legs until after I got a shed and I retired.
Webbo
Agreed. When I talk to my plastic modelling customers and friends, they very often express interest in model railways but always say "I don't have the space." When I show them shelf layouts and micros, they get quite excited and maybe half a dozen or so have actually given it a go, and I'm not even actively trying to sell them anything. They'll pick up a bargain Dapol loco at a show or something and get a few Peco wagon kits and make a box file or plank layout.
So perhaps there could be lots of meat on that bone if the wider modelling community had a broader picture of what railway modelling can be, in their heads.
I'm cooking up something that I think would be a good way to test this hypothesis but we'll see.