I know some folks have had a pretty miserable time these last few weeks, and we've had a lot of rain too, fortunately no floods, but really, was that winter? Certainly, here in the deep south it feels as if we have had a 6-month autumn. We've had hardly any frosts and certainly nothing resembling snow. I can't ever remember going through a whole winter without once having to wear gloves or a warm jacket. All my thick jumpers stayed in their drawer and our winter duvet remains untroubled in its bag. In some ways I'm quite happy about it - after 42 years doing an outdoor job I came to hate the cold weather, but it feels... unnatural.
Enjoy spring, people.
Cheers,
Chris
Much the same here in South Cumbria - less than half a dozen frosts, and only a dusting or two of snow. The high fells are snow covered now, but they also were a few weeks ago but it all thawed.
We have had rather a lot of rain and strong winds though.
Agreed, I was having that conversation the other day. Literally a handful of frosty mornings. Bizarre. And windy. Very windy.
Beware risking the wrath of the Weather Gods! :uneasy:
I've been to a post-TT motorcycle race meeting at Mallory Park in June and it snowed :o
My favourite time of year here. Weather getting cooler with clear sunny days.
Especially after the horror summer we've had.
Quote from: Papyrus on March 01, 2020, 08:53:12 PM
.............. but really, was that winter?
Be careful what you wish for. Bearing in mind that it's only March
1st 2nd now this picture was taken from inside my car on March 3rd 2018:
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/88/262-020320010303-881561795.jpeg)
And this one from outside my car on March 18th 2018:
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/88/262-020320005737-88155322.jpeg)
This is a picture of my cat. I'm not sure when this was taken:
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/31/main_21731.jpg)
This is my first winter since we moved to Russia. We were expecting it to be very cold for us after twenty five years of the warm temperatures of South Africa. In the event, we had a couple of days when I needed my nice fur lined boots and coat and the rest of the time it was just like a nice British autumn day.
The only downside is that we wanted really cold (normal) weather to determine if we needed better insulation in our new flat. Have to wait for the next winter I suppose !
I wonder if this has been significant for the spread of covid19 ?
I'm intrigued as to why you've ended up in Russia after 25 years in South Africa..... work, I assume?
Sorry, I'm a sticky beak, you don't have to answer that. :beers:
The met office have been threatening us with snow since November and reality is we have been underwater since October.
We still have 28 sandbags at the doors to the house because everytime we get more then 2hrs of rain, which is EVERYDAY at the moment the water rises to the 9" height we have had all winter.
The fields are absolutely saturated and there is nowhere for any of this to drain, consequently the run off is now greater and means we then have more and more standing water.
February has traditionally always been the worst weather of winter, our thinking is now we see 2 seasons in a year. Although winter 18/19 was wet it was definitely colder then this year and the summer was an absolute scorcher, as well as being decent for a great length of time.
It would indicate this year we are probably going to be between 5° and 20° all year with not much of a summer for all the office bods to whinge and moan about.
So predictions for 2020 weather,
above average rain for every month of the year
No red hot summer worth shouting about
All of this is my own belief, I have no ties to the met office or long range weather forecasts. I accept no responsibility for correct or incorrect information given or predicted. :D
See you in 12months and see how wrong I was :-[
Quote from: BobB on March 02, 2020, 06:45:10 AM
I wonder if this has been significant for the spread of covid19 ?
The massive increase in international mobility in the last few years is the main factor in spreading this.
Back on topic, warmest winter on record here in Japan, quite a few ski resorts have gone under due to lack of snow.
Ne'er cast a clout 'til May be out
The beast from the East a few years back came in March. I well remember spending half an hour digging snow off the drive to get out to see my newborn granddaughter seven years ago - her birthday is 24th March. It is very possible to get winter weather right through March.
The British weather varies so much depending upon which way the wind is blowing. Although the summer of 1976 is remembered as the best summer ever (and indeed it was) there was a sudden heavy snowstorm at the beginning of June which actually caused roads around Birmingham to turn white over. The snow melted I think within a few minutes of the snowstorm stopping and then within a few days it was scorchio .
I well remember one Easter driving to Caister in the snow on the Thursday before Easter and spending Easter Sunday lying on the beach in the sun.
I certainly remember the snow in May / June In the late 70's I was Living at RAF Coltishall at the time and they wouldn't turn the heating on in the barrack blocks as it hadn't been cold enough for long enough. Cost them a lot of Electricty though, as we all went out and bought electric fan heaters and used them illegally in the blocks..
According to Milancovitch cycles were are in a 30 year cooling cycle, I've a feeling at some delayed point the cycles will over come the global warming and we'll have a very bad winter..
I'm amazed that this thread hasn't degenerated into climate change, which Australia seems obsessed with at the moment.
Is there any need to discuss climate change? Although it is always difficult to separate just the normal unusual weather from changes to the climate I think there can be little doubt that the climate is changing and that human activity is playing a part on that change . The only thing to discuss is how big a disaster is needed to get politicians around the world to decide that action is needed.
Quote from: The Q on March 02, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
According to Milancovitch cycles were are in a 30 year cooling cycle, I've a feeling at some delayed point the cycles will over come the global warming and we'll have a very bad winter..
Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!
Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).
Interesting replies! I started this thread on the basis that meteorologists arbitrarily define winter as December, January and February. I don't dispute that you can get cold periods in March and later (white Easters are more common than white Christmases) but they don't tend to last more than a few days. It just seems to have been a very unusual few months.
Cheers,
Chris
Quote from: red_death on March 02, 2020, 12:14:13 PM
Quote from: The Q on March 02, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
According to Milancovitch cycles were are in a 30 year cooling cycle, I've a feeling at some delayed point the cycles will over come the global warming and we'll have a very bad winter..
Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!
Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).
A full Milancovitch cycle is over 30000 years, made up of sun cycles, earth positions around the sun and a lot of other factors. Short term variations like 30 years are listed in the full Chart of cycles.
Quote from: The Q on March 02, 2020, 05:43:05 PM
Quote from: red_death on March 02, 2020, 12:14:13 PM
Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!
Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).
A full Milancovitch cycle is over 30000 years, made up of sun cycles, earth positions around the sun and a lot of other factors. Short term variations like 30 years are listed in the full Chart of cycles.
For sure there are plenty of short term variations (much shorter than 30 years as things like tilt etc are continuously changing) but I've never heard of them being described as part of the Milankovitch cycles (though admittedly it is over 20 years since I studied them!) - there are 3 main Milankovitch cycles:
Eccentricity ~100k years
Tilt ~41k years
Precession ~23k years
IIRC it is actually more complex than that as they can be further divided.
Hi Bealman, it was work that took me to Russia where I met Tatiana. We had some wonderful years in South Africa, but retirement and the pull of the family and friends in Russia brought us to Saratov where I'm the lone English railway model fanatic. The good thing is that nobody here knows if I'm utilising rule one for anything that's on the layout !
It feels like winter is over here in Kentucky. We maybe had two inches of snow total over the past few months. It's possible to get significant snow here in March though, but it usually melts fast. Temps here will probably feel like spring for at least the next week (50-60*F). Sadly, one sure sign of spring is tornadoes. The Nashville,TN area (about 150 miles south of me) got hit by several last night. I've been in the area numerous times for hockey games, so it's somewhat shocking to see all the devastation. I think a few other tornadoes were spotted last night in western Kentucky, one near a town I frequently railfan at. (Crofton,KY)
Sorry to hear that. Hope it doesn't stop your great railway pics coming! :thumbsup:
Just shows how dynamic the atmosphere and climate of this planet is. Depends where you are! Tornadoes there, steady rain today after the horror bushfires of January here.
Quote from: Bealman on March 04, 2020, 12:13:08 AM
Sorry to hear that. Hope it doesn't stop your great railway pics coming! :thumbsup:
Just shows how dynamic the atmosphere and climate of this planet is. Depends where you are! Tornadoes there, steady rain today after the horror bushfires of January here.
I don't think the tornado near Crofton was too bad. It's sparsely populated so that should keep damage down. There was a tornado in that area a few years ago right across U.S. 41 from CSX's Henderson Sub, you could see the path the tornado had carved through the wooded area there. As far as the bad stuff goes, I live north of what is called "Dixie Alley". Most people think of "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma,Texas) but the South gets its fair share of devastating weather. Our worst outbreak locally was April 3rd, 1974, I wasn't around for that one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Super_Outbreak (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Super_Outbreak) I'm by no means a meteorologist but I find tornadoes interesting.
This is video of the Nashville tornado...there was no one in any of the cranes, they're set up to act like weathervanes so wind doesn't push them over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0NYTNVXTbw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0NYTNVXTbw)
Dunno about, interesting - more scary, as far as I'm concerned!
That Nashville clip is definitely scary!
Quote from: Bealman on March 04, 2020, 01:02:07 AM
Dunno about, interesting - more scary, as far as I'm concerned!
That Nashville clip is definitely scary!
Pretty used to them living in the Midwest all my life. I'd like to see one in person, at a safe distance and as long as it's moving away of course. Some parts of Kentucky would lend itself better for viewing than others... I have a pretty good view west of where I live but nothing really good south or east.
Crofton tornado was rated an EF-1: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202003040144-KPAH-NOUS43-PNSPAH Report seems to suggest it crossed U.S. 41 so I'm guessing it also crossed the CSX line down there. Damage doesn't sound too severe at least.
Nashville's is currently rated an EF-3 but may get pushed into EF-4 territory.
As the topic seems to have moved on to tornadoes, can I ask a silly question?
I've never been to the USA, but I'm always struck by the damage after a tornado or hurricane. The impression I get is that American houses are largely built of, well, plywood. The only thing left standing is usually the chimney which is built of brick or stone. Why isn't the rest of the house made of something equally substantial and properly cemented to the foundations? I would have thought a solid house would a) survive a storm and b) provide something that the inhabitants could shelter in safely. Am I missing something?
Cheers,
Chris
Quote from: Papyrus on March 04, 2020, 04:19:01 PM
As the topic seems to have moved on to tornadoes, can I ask a silly question?
I've never been to the USA, but I'm always struck by the damage after a tornado or hurricane. The impression I get is that American houses are largely built of, well, plywood. The only thing left standing is usually the chimney which is built of brick or stone. Why isn't the rest of the house made of something equally substantial and properly cemented to the foundations? I would have thought a solid house would a) survive a storm and b) provide something that the inhabitants could shelter in safely. Am I missing something?
Cheers,
Chris
Houses are built out of different materials. Mine is wood with vinyl siding and shingled roof. I have neighbors who have solid brick homes on my street. Some of it is a matter of choice I guess, some times it is the cheapest stuff available. I believe out in the Great Plains they do a bit more to anchor the house down in case of a tornado but if it's an EF-4 or EF-5 it probably won't matter. You can buy pre-built storm shelters and install them. Some folks have basements. I don't (wish I did for model railroading purposes), but I feel like the really bad stuff has missed where I live for the most part.
Since I've been posting tornado links lately, this video goes back to 2012, the last serious tornado outbreak in my general area. The tornado in this video is a powerful EF-4, it was about 50-60 miles north of where I live. That day was rough though, there were warnings all over the place, and the weather service gave us a TOR:CON rating of 10, which meant 100% possibility of a tornado touchdown within 50 miles of any location in the warned area. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hBCiuL_iFw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hBCiuL_iFw)
I went past some of the area this tornado went through a few times after it hit, as one of the race tracks I used to frequent was north of the damage track by about 15 miles. One of the folks I know that raced in the series at the time had his shop in Henryville destroyed when the tornado came through.
Tornado warnings in Kentucky today, about 40 miles south/southwest of me. Nothing coming at me at least. I guess spring is officially here.
Quote from: BobB on March 03, 2020, 10:41:57 AM
The good thing is that nobody here knows if I'm utilising rule one for anything that's on the layout !
That made me laugh. I've just finishing painting a "GWR" branch line station building and was trying to mix the burgundy for the doors and trim from a bunch of different colors, and realized that as long as it looks good to me, no-one here will know the difference, and any pictures I post I'll just blame the color resolution on the camera.
I've also got a CL 47 which is BR Blue, but post-TOPS, I think they call it "small logo". Out of place? Absolutely. Who will know? Me, and I'll just take pictures from the front.
On the weather subject, it's been raining hard here in LA over the past couple of days. Usually the rains have come and gone by now, but this year the wet spell is a little late.
As LASteve says, we only have to satisfy ourselves. I have a blue Hymek with a TOPS code and am thinking about a Warship as well. They'll go well with the Midland Pullman I want to run with my HST and other 1976 rolling stock !
Quote from: BobB on March 13, 2020, 06:28:13 AM
As LASteve says, we only have to satisfy ourselves. I have a blue Hymek with a TOPS code and am thinking about a Warship as well. They'll go well with the Midland Pullman I want to run with my HST and other 1976 rolling stock !
Several years ago I sold a blue Hymek which I had renumbered as 35 001 I think. Did you buy it from me? :-[
Hello Trainfish. No I didn't buy it from you. I got those nice people from TMC to renumber and weather for me. They actually checked before they did it because of course the Hymeks never carried a TOPS number when in main line service. I promised Chris from TMC that they would not be blamed !