So was that winter?

[red_death]

According to Milancovitch cycles were are in a 30 year cooling cycle, I've a feeling at some delayed point the cycles will over come the global warming and we'll have a very bad winter..

Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!

Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).

[Papyrus]

Interesting replies! I started this thread on the basis that meteorologists arbitrarily define winter as December, January and February. I don't dispute that you can get cold periods in March and later (white Easters are more common than white Christmases) but they don't tend to last more than a few days. It just seems to have been a very unusual few months.

Cheers,

Chris

[The Q]

According to Milancovitch cycles were are in a 30 year cooling cycle, I've a feeling at some delayed point the cycles will over come the global warming and we'll have a very bad winter..

Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!

Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).

A full Milancovitch cycle is over 30000 years,  made up of sun cycles,  earth positions around the sun and a lot of other factors.  Short term variations like 30 years are listed in the full Chart of cycles.

[red_death]

Milankovitch cycles are much longer than 30 years IIRC - more like 30,000 years!

Global warming was always a bit of a misnomer which is why climate change is more commonly used now or even specifying that we're talking human-induced/anthropogenic climate change (as we all accept that climates change!).

A full Milancovitch cycle is over 30000 years,  made up of sun cycles,  earth positions around the sun and a lot of other factors.  Short term variations like 30 years are listed in the full Chart of cycles.

For sure there are plenty of short term variations (much shorter than 30 years as things like tilt etc are continuously changing) but I've never heard of them being described as part of the Milankovitch cycles (though admittedly it is over 20 years since I studied them!) - there are 3 main Milankovitch cycles:
Eccentricity ~100k years
Tilt ~41k years
Precession ~23k years

IIRC it is actually more complex than that as they can be further divided.

[BobB]

Hi Bealman, it was work that took me to Russia where I met Tatiana. We had some wonderful years in South Africa, but retirement and the pull of the family and friends in Russia brought us to Saratov where I'm the lone English railway model fanatic. The good thing is that nobody here knows if I'm utilising rule one for anything that's on the layout !

[Jeff_W]

It feels like winter is over here in Kentucky. We maybe had two inches of snow total over the past few months. It's possible to get significant snow here in March though, but it usually melts fast. Temps here will probably feel like spring for at least the next week (50-60*F).   Sadly, one sure sign of spring is tornadoes. The Nashville,TN area (about 150 miles south of me) got hit by several last night. I've been in the area numerous times for hockey games, so it's somewhat shocking to see all the devastation. I think a few other tornadoes were spotted last night in western Kentucky, one near a town I frequently railfan at. (Crofton,KY)

[Bealman]

Sorry to hear that. Hope it doesn't stop your great railway pics coming! 

Just shows how dynamic the atmosphere and climate of this planet is. Depends where you are! Tornadoes there, steady rain today after the horror bushfires of January here.

[Jeff_W]

Sorry to hear that. Hope it doesn't stop your great railway pics coming! 

Just shows how dynamic the atmosphere and climate of this planet is. Depends where you are! Tornadoes there, steady rain today after the horror bushfires of January here.

I don't think the tornado near Crofton was too bad. It's sparsely populated so that should keep damage down. There was a tornado in that area a few years ago right across U.S. 41 from CSX's Henderson Sub, you could see the path the tornado had carved through the wooded area there. As far as the bad stuff goes, I live north of what is called "Dixie Alley". Most people think of "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma,Texas) but the South gets its fair share of devastating weather. Our worst outbreak locally was April 3rd, 1974, I wasn't around for that one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Super_Outbreak  I'm by no means a meteorologist but I find tornadoes interesting.

This is video of the Nashville tornado...there was no one in any of the cranes, they're set up to act like weathervanes so wind doesn't push them over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0NYTNVXTbw

[Bealman]

Dunno about, interesting - more scary, as far as I'm concerned!

That Nashville clip is definitely scary!

[Jeff_W]

Dunno about, interesting - more scary, as far as I'm concerned!

That Nashville clip is definitely scary!

Pretty used to them living in the Midwest all my life. I'd like to see one in person, at a safe distance and as long as it's moving away of course. Some parts of Kentucky would lend itself better for viewing than others... I have a pretty good view west of where I live but nothing really good south or east.


Crofton tornado was rated an EF-1: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202003040144-KPAH-NOUS43-PNSPAH  Report seems to suggest it crossed U.S. 41 so I'm guessing it also crossed the CSX line down there. Damage doesn't sound too severe at least.

Nashville's is currently rated an EF-3 but may get pushed into EF-4 territory.

[Papyrus]

As the topic seems to have moved on to tornadoes, can I ask a silly question?

I've never been to the USA, but I'm always struck by the damage after a tornado or hurricane. The impression I get is that American houses are largely built of, well, plywood. The only thing left standing is usually the chimney which is built of brick or stone. Why isn't the rest of the house made of something equally substantial and properly cemented to the foundations? I would have thought a solid house would a) survive a storm and b) provide something that the inhabitants could shelter in safely. Am I missing something?

Cheers,

Chris

[Jeff_W]

As the topic seems to have moved on to tornadoes, can I ask a silly question?

I've never been to the USA, but I'm always struck by the damage after a tornado or hurricane. The impression I get is that American houses are largely built of, well, plywood. The only thing left standing is usually the chimney which is built of brick or stone. Why isn't the rest of the house made of something equally substantial and properly cemented to the foundations? I would have thought a solid house would a) survive a storm and b) provide something that the inhabitants could shelter in safely. Am I missing something?

Cheers,

Chris

Houses are built out of different materials. Mine is wood with vinyl siding and shingled roof. I have neighbors who have solid brick homes on my street. Some of it is a matter of choice I guess, some times it is the cheapest stuff available.  I believe out in the Great Plains they do a bit more to anchor the house down in case of a tornado but if it's an EF-4 or EF-5 it probably won't matter. You can buy pre-built storm shelters and install them. Some folks have basements. I don't (wish I did for model railroading purposes), but I feel like the really bad stuff has missed where I live for the most part.

Since I've been posting tornado links lately, this video goes back to 2012, the last serious tornado outbreak in my general area. The tornado in this video is a powerful EF-4, it was about 50-60 miles north of where I live. That day was rough though, there were warnings all over the place, and the weather service gave us a TOR:CON rating of 10, which meant 100% possibility of a tornado touchdown within 50 miles of any location in the warned area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hBCiuL_iFw

I went past some of the area this tornado went through a few times after it hit, as one of the race tracks I used to frequent was north of the damage track by about 15 miles. One of the folks I know that raced in the series at the time had his shop in Henryville destroyed when the tornado came through.

[Jeff_W]

Tornado warnings in Kentucky today, about 40 miles south/southwest of me. Nothing coming at me at least. I guess spring is officially here.

[LASteve]

The good thing is that nobody here knows if I'm utilising rule one for anything that's on the layout !

That made me laugh. I've just finishing painting a "GWR" branch line station building and was trying to mix the burgundy for the doors and trim from a bunch of different colors, and realized that as long as it looks good to me, no-one here will know the difference, and any pictures I post I'll just blame the color resolution on the camera.

I've also got a CL 47 which is BR Blue, but post-TOPS, I think they call it "small logo". Out of place? Absolutely. Who will know? Me, and I'll just take pictures from the front.

On the weather subject, it's been raining hard here in LA over the past couple of days. Usually the rains have come and gone by now, but this year the wet spell is a little late.

[BobB]

As LASteve says, we only have to satisfy ourselves. I have a blue Hymek with a TOPS code and am thinking about a Warship as well. They'll go well with the Midland Pullman I want to run with my HST and other 1976 rolling stock !