Coronavirus and models.

[scruff]

I've been thinking.. yes.. bad I know!

This Coronavirus has caused problems in the chinese factories and shipping lines are scaling back their sailings from chinese ports. Travel restrictions in China mean it is hard for the factories to get their goods to the ports.

So...

How is this affecting proposed delivery dates of new models? Will the stuff scheduled for production be put at the back of the queue or just continue but with delays?

I told you I'd been thinking!!

Cheers
Mark

[honestjudge]

It has been mentioned in various forum posts, but I think it's safe to assume that there will be delays in production,  delivery,  and everything else associated with trade.
I'm just praying that some of the bigger shows are not cancelled

[railsquid]

MicroAce (one of the larger Japanese manufacturers) have publicly stated this will delay production, (homepage containing statement, linkable page with statement only, both in Japanese, run through the automatic translator of your choice).

[trkilliman]

A few weeks back I posted that the Chinese factories invariably have staffing problems after their New Year. This is because many work a long distance from home and during the long holiday some if not many find work nearer to their home and family.   Now the virus has significantly added to this, so production must surely be severely disrupted. 

In the U.K. companies such as JCB reported problems with parts shortages of Chinese sourced parts. Their staff have had their hours reduced as a result. There will undoubtedly be more and more companies in a similar situation as time goes on.
Our model railways must be a minute part of Chinese production in the great scheme of things. As and when they break the back of this near Global virus, I imagine that the Chinese authorities will deem that much larger and profitable production will take priority. They will want to concentrate on the areas that bring in large financial gains for their economy that must be suffering at this time.

Just how I see it.

[Bealman]

I'd just like to get some toilet rolls, that's how I see it 

[port perran]

I suggest that looking at the overall picture, the delay to a few railway models is somewhat insignificant.
Annoying as it may be to those waiting at this end, there must be far more important items that attract a higher priority in the grand scheme of things.

As for Model Railway Shows in the UK, I would suspect that we are likely to see cancellations either imposed by the government or by organisers who will be reluctant to take a risk on going ahead. And who can blame them.
Same applies to many events. I was up at Bristol for football yesterday and everyone was wondering if the rest of the season will be played behind closed doors.
Just my own thoughts.

[Bealman]

Once this goes away, I wonder what will be next 

[N_GaugeModeller]

I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.

Like I said, I know those who should know about this sort of thing said it only lasts a week but then again it was those sort of experts who once said smoking and asbestos was safe so excuse me for not trusting their "Expert" opinions.

NGM

[Bob Tidbury]

Let's hope that Ally Pally still goes ahead ,apparently all traders and exhibitors have been Emailed to confirm that they havnt been abroad or in contact with anyone connected with the Coronavirus .
But what about the thousands of visitors to the show ,I think people are panicking just a little bit to be honest .If you look at statistics the  common flue kills more people every year than have died from this virus and probably more people are killed in road accidents as well .
So I hope to see a lot of my friends and customers on the B H Enterprises stand at Ally Pally .
Bob Tidbury
And Thankyou to everyone who wished me Happy Birthday yesterday .

[njee20]

I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.

No chance at all. That's just scaremongering and the sort of thing which leads to morons panic buying. You're talking about a month+, for a very weak concentration of any virus to live on an inanimate surface.

Totally agree with Bob about the hysteria. Wash your hands. Don't cough into people's faces. If you don't want to get ill then avoid travelling through London on public transport.

Whilst a bit of a misleading application of statistics I note you're still significantly more likely to die by lightning strike than Covid-19  right now.

[Ben A]

I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker.

Hi there,

I don't think this is at all likely.  Production has not been able to resume in China since the outbreak, so even the most recent models you are buying will have been manufactured and packed at least 8 weeks ago.  There is no evidence at all that coronavirus can survive that long on a surface.

Back in mid-February Revolution Trains published a note explaining the impact of the virus on model train production, see here: https://www.revolutiontrains.com/news/

Workers who live close to the factories in Southern China - predominantly CAD engineers, production managers and factory owners - are now returning to work, so development work is resuming, however the bulk of the assembly workforce has to travel from far-flung areas and this is taking significantly longer. 

Now that new cases in China are falling, and while ongoing travel restrictions are in place in some locations, it is expected that these workers will start to return.

Cheers

Ben A.

[Bealman]

Thanks for that straight reply, Ben.

[Snowwolflair]

OK time for some facts (ref WHO)

The virus is fragile outside the body - common with all viruses - If it dehydrates it dies, if it is exposed to a compound that breaks up oil it looses the ability to infect and dies as its outer coating is oily.

Absorbent surfaces kill it faster than hard or waterproof surfaces (i.e. wood, paper etc).  Worst case survival on these surfaces is believed to be 24 hours.

Non absorbent surfaces rely on evaporation to kill it and as it is an oily compound this is believed to be up to 72 hours.

However,

In a closed moisture proof container evaporation may take longer but the virus would normally die anyway in the absence of a living cell to take over even in perfect conditions in twice this time (current working assumption).

So a cardboard box from China shipped by boat is not a problem.  A UPS or DHL polythene bag with the contents wrapped in bubble wrap shipped in 3 days from anywhere could be a problem.

As I get a lot of these packages, my simple solution is disposable gloves and an atomiser filled with IPA. I spray the outer surfaces before unpacking and during if necessary. 

NB my shipments from Shapeways are currently being dumped straight into a tank of Heptane 

Also if you are really worried leave it in direct sunlight for a while or use a UV source to sterilise.

[davidinyork]

I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.

No chance at all. That's just scaremongering and the sort of thing which leads to morons panic buying. You're talking about a month+, for a very weak concentration of any virus to live on an inanimate surface.

Quite. Why do so many people posting on the internet think they know better than the medical researchers who are giving informed advice? The informed estimates seem to indicate a few days at the outside, but probably less.

It will no doubt lead to supply-chain issues, given the prevalence of the just-in-time model, and the fact that so much manufacturing is done in China. I'm already seeing it with computers. It's hardly the end of the world though if I can't get some computers for work, or some model trains are delayed..

[njee20]

There appears to be a global shortage of IPA too (not the beer), whether people are using it as a disinfectant or something. Maybe using it in an atomiser on all their post or something! My regular supplier have stopped even listing it, my order from 10 days ago never actually shipped, and it's 4-5 times more expensive than it was a month ago now. Stupid.