Hatton's Beyer-Garratt

[Bigmac]

so if hattons do go ahead and make it--what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

[Chris Morris]

If Hattons had their wits about them they would have quietly set about tooling a class 45 last year. They could have brought it to market in 2020 and stole the market from Bachmann. I believe something mainstream like this would sell well and is probably a simpler loco to tool up. It's too late to do this now as Bachmann would probably get there first. In  OO all mainstream locos are already covered so something a bit unusual is likely to sell well. In N there are still a number of mainstream locos that are not available and I think that is where better sales volumes might be found.

Lessons from Revolution seems to be that modern image sells better than steam in N .

[Dr Al]

so if hattons do go ahead and make it--what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

Who knows? Will completely depend on the costs!

You are asking questions only those in the trade know!

Cheers,
Alan

[Bigmac]

so if hattons do go ahead and make it--what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

Who knows? Will completely depend on the costs!

You are asking questions only those in the trade know!

Cheers,
Alan

yep!

[Bigmac]

so if hattons do go ahead and make it--what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

Who knows? Will completely depend on the costs!

You are asking questions only those in the trade know!

Cheers,
Alan

in fact--how about if hatton's announced they were only going to produce--say --500, and welcome pre order deposits now--would it be a sell out ?

[red_death]

what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

You've no way of knowing unless Hattons are willing to tell you.  They will have got a tooling cost and a unit cost (which may be variable depending on the number produced).  Everything else is a business decision ie are you likely to be able to do more than one run? If more than one run how many - that impacts how you might amortise the tooling. What profit margin do you want?

IIRC Hattons are producing 8 numbers in any colour you want as long as it is black, so that reduces livery minimum quantities.

Typically it becomes too expensive for a powered model to pay for the tooling from less than 1000 units, but if they bank on two runs then it might be possible to do 1000 (or even potentially lower).

[red_death]

in fact--how about if hatton's announced they were only going to produce--say --500, and welcome pre order deposits now--would it be a sell out ?

Whether it is a sell out is irrelevant if the price doesn't cover their costs!

[Bigmac]

what would be the likely minimum  number produced to break even ?

You've no way of knowing unless Hattons are willing to tell you.  They will have got a tooling cost and a unit cost (which may be variable depending on the number produced).  Everything else is a business decision ie are you likely to be able to do more than one run? If more than one run how many - that impacts how you might amortise the tooling. What profit margin do you want?

IIRC Hattons are producing 8 numbers in any colour you want as long as it is black, so that reduces livery minimum quantities.

Typically it becomes too expensive for a powered model to pay for the tooling from less than 1000 units, but if they bank on two runs then it might be possible to do 1000 (or even potentially lower).

if hatton's drop it--would revolution take it on ?

[Dr Al]

if hatton's drop it--would revolution take it on ?

I'm sure Mike will comment - but Hattons costs are almost certainly likely to be lower as they have the R+D from being involved with the Heljan OO Garratt to leverage. Revolution would have to do that R+D from scratch and cost it appropriately. Ben and Mike have openly said they are not so knowledgeable on steam as it's not their own area of personal interest.

If Hattons don't think it viable, I somehow doubt anyone else will. But maybe I am wrong, and Mike, others have different opinion.

Cheers,
Alan

[exmouthcraig]

Who knows theres anything to drop?

A cad outline drawing might be the only place their at and although money will of been spent on that was that a drawing that already existed??

If the numbers aren't there why would someone else even attempt picking it up???

They'll loose money, time and their name If they already produce N gauge stock.

[red_death]

if hatton's drop it--would revolution take it on ?

If Hattons don't think it viable, I somehow doubt anyone else will. But maybe I am wrong, and Mike, others have different opinion.

The one advantage that Ben and I have is we come cheap!

But you are right that if Hattons can't make it work financially then it is very unlikely that we would try to.  I understand why Hattons picked the Beyer Garratt but it wouldn't have been my choice for a first entry into N gauge (and we've said as much to Hattons).  Even from a steam perspective I think that there are better choices out there.

As Nick mentioned earlier on we have to be realistic about the size of the N gauge market - depending on who you listen to it tends to vary from 15-20% of OO.  That makes borderline projects very difficult to do in N gauge without a lot of work.

I've no idea what stage Hattons are at with their Beyer Garratt either in terms of progress or in terms of pre-orders, but I still firmly believe that if they are basing decisions on the number of pre-orders then they need to clearly tell potential customers that.

Cheers Mike

[Bigmac]

if hatton's drop it--would revolution take it on ?

If Hattons don't think it viable, I somehow doubt anyone else will. But maybe I am wrong, and Mike, others have different opinion.

The one advantage that Ben and I have is we come cheap!

But you are right that if Hattons can't make it work financially then it is very unlikely that we would try to.  I understand why Hattons picked the Beyer Garratt but it wouldn't have been my choice for a first entry into N gauge (and we've said as much to Hattons).  Even from a steam perspective I think that there are better choices out there.

As Nick mentioned earlier on we have to be realistic about the size of the N gauge market - depending on who you listen to it tends to vary from 15-20% of OO.  That makes borderline projects very difficult to do in N gauge without a lot of work.

I've no idea what stage Hattons are at with their Beyer Garratt either in terms of progress or in terms of pre-orders, but I still firmly believe that if they are basing decisions on the number of pre-orders then they need to clearly tell potential customers that.

Cheers Mike

thank you

[Roy L S]

Lessons from Revolution seems to be that modern image sells better than steam in N .

I don't think that represents the true position at all. The reality is that RevolutioN (Ben and Mike) will inevitably work on more projects from an era that they know and can find support for ones such as the 321 which may not have made the cut as a model from a mainstream manufacturer. That the 21/29 didn't get adequate support on reflection may be as much about timing as anything else, because from what I understand the Class B's after a slow start went on to sell 4000 ish vehicles.

The reality is that there are good and slow sellers in both steam and diesel, and these are typically the less popular liveries in both cases as well as some like the Desiro which was a strategic flop and could be had for £80 in the bargain bins latterly. With the RevolutioN models around and planned now maybe it would have done better but would 3-4000 sell through easily?

Diesels and DMUs that seem to sell out quickest are the green ones, steam that sells out slowest the pre-Nationalisation liveries.

Coming back to the Garratt, I think an assumption was made that because it sold well in 00 it would do so in N too. However aside from a much bigger target market, what Hattons probably failed to take into account is that there is a significant collector's market in 00 and I suspect a good % of the ones sold will never turn a wheel, and it matters not that they are too big for most 00 layouts and restricted both geographically and in terms of lifespan. I do not believe that same collector's market exists to anything like the same extent in N.

I do think something like the LMS Twins may have found more success in the quirky camp but I honestly think a much better bet for a steam loco would have been something with more widespread appeal like the 43xx Mogul of Standard 4 4-6-0.

Roy

[emjaybee]

I've been pondering this project over the last day or so and been reading with interest what other people's point of view is.

The consistent theme among these models is that they always seem to be a bit weird. The Fell, GT3, Beyer Garatt etc. You'd think a wagon would be a lower-risk way to dip a toe into N gauge, although that didn't work for Cavalex either, so perhaps not.

I would say that there's a big difference between the Fell, GT3, and the B-Garrett.

The Fell had a lifespan of seven years, the GT3 had a similar lifespan, whilst the Garrett's were around for thirty one years. And of course, the numbers produced, 1, 1 and 29.

I think you also need to look at aesthetic when trying to sell model locos. Aficionados may well slather over a Fell or a GT3, but I've seen enthusiasts refer to the Fell as "a loco only it's mother could love", whilst I don't know about 'The Chocolate Zephyr', it's more like a 'Flying Turd'. The Garrett is a nicer looking, maybe because it's more traditional.

I appreciate that wagons could be a 'way in' to N gauge manufacture, but they'd just get lost in the myriad of other manufacturers, we're not short of wagon producers.

On the subject of there being plenty of OO gauge collectors who just have display models, I think you're quite correct. I also think there's a N gauge market for that.

I can see the Garrett being something that modellers would like to have in a cabinet on display. On a personal note, I've been getting excited because Kato are considering doing a new Big-Boy, and if they do, I'm having one, even if I've got to sell a kidney to do it. I'd love to have a display cabinet with a Garrett and a Big-Boy side by side.

I do, though, think the comments about Hattons advertising are correct. They don't really seem to be pushing it, and it's not easy to find on their website unless you search for it.

I live in hope that it makes it through.

[Newportnobby]

I'd love to have a display cabinet with a Garrett and a Big-Boy side by side.

Which brings us to another plausible reason for the Garratt being chosen. As a kid I recall seeing pictures of the Beyer Garratts working the mines in South Africa and didn't even know at the time such locos appeared on UK tracks. In effect, the Garratt is the 'Big Boy' equivalent for the UK market. There was just nothing larger. We have a glut of small to medium size locos so why not a really biggun and, going by many posts, there could well be a decent market for the opposite end of the spectrum i.e. an 0-4-0 of some sort