The angry thread

railsquid · October 30, 2020, 12:49:06 PM

Here's one source:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/coronavirus-strain-from-spain-accounts-for-most-uk-cases-study

Greetings from Japan, still largely cut off from the outside world.

javlinfaw7 · October 30, 2020, 12:58:49 PM

So the strain from Spain come mainly on the plane.

Newportnobby · October 30, 2020, 04:17:48 PM

Quote from: dannyboy on October 30, 2020, 12:37:49 PM
I have not heard the report as yet, but if it is correct, it just goes to show that, (and I know I have said this before), if people were confined to their homes for a period of maybe just two or three weeks, this virus could be eradicated.** I know I am over simplifying things and there has to be exceptions, but I, normally, only get out of my car once a week to do some shopping. (I have to use the car Monday to Friday to get Louisa to and from work). Surely it is better to be 'inconvenienced' for a short while so that we can all get back to some sort of normality, rather than some restrictions in some places, with less restrictions in other places? That, to me, just encourages people to move from one area to another.

** Maybe not eradicated, but at least controlled.

Even though I'm slightly to the left of Genghis Khan I can't agree with that. There are parts of the UK with very low virus counts who should not be penalised on account of those in the highest tiers of restriction. That just isn't fair and, face it, there's no bottomless well of cash to prop up a wholesale lockdown again. Someone, somewhere in the future, has got to pay it all back

Snowwolflair · October 30, 2020, 04:29:20 PM

A casual observation

Easter skiing holidaymakers brought the first wave in from Italy (they traced this)

Summer holidaymakers brought the second wave in from the beaches of Spain

Spot the pattern!

Also the skiing holidaymakers (probably better healed) were dispersed thorough the country which was reflected in the virus spread, and the beach and booze package tours holidaymakers were substantially from the areas of higher population, reflected in the current distribution.

It is therefore safe to assume the third wave will be nationwide as a result of Christmas.

dannyboy · October 30, 2020, 06:46:56 PM

@Newportnobby
I appreciate what you are saying Mick, but what happens if one particular area has lock down imposed because of the prevalence of the virus and an adjoining area, which has a very low prevalence of the virus, has no lock down, how do you police it? No country has the official manpower to seal off various areas and stop a person crossing from one area to another. As you know, I live in the Republic of Ireland and we are supposed to stay within 5km of our home during the current lock down - which is nation wide, except for exceptions! During the last lock down earlier in the year, I went to Carrick-on-Shannon, (30km from home), to get the weekly shopping from Tesco, (I was not allowed to go to Asda in the north :'(). I was stopped twice by the Gardai, (Police), on my return trip to home on one of my shopping trips and when I explained why I was out - no problem. But that was just one day, I never saw any other check points. To my way of thinking, different rules for different areas defeat the object of a lock down. This pandemic is costing every country a fortune, but when it is all over, the whole country, (whichever country we are talking about), will have to pay, not just the areas that have the strictest restrictions, so why not a short sharp lock down for all, instead of the piecemeal attitude that prevails now?

Okay, I have said my bit and I am only one voice, but I will shut up now.

. As Sergeant Esterhaus used to say in Hill Street Blues, "Let's be careful out there".

Snowwolflair · October 30, 2020, 07:03:08 PM

South Korea does it by tracking mobile phones, don't have one, you are given one for the duration. Their laws allows you to be tracked, there is a vast fine if you don't have your phone with you at all times, and if you are suspected or have COVID19 you are geofenced to your house, and they comply.

Can you imaging your average UK stroppy git complying with that, never mind the fortunes that would be racked up by civil rights lawyers trying to break the rules and the rest.

Frankly our population deserves the rate of death their stupidity demands.

There is a Russian regional leader who suggested last weak that if someone was deliberately flaunting their regulations they should be helped along by being injected with COVID19 and then locked up. I can see that would have gone down well in Nottingham last night.

Newportnobby · October 30, 2020, 09:01:44 PM

Quote from: Snowwolflair on October 30, 2020, 07:03:08 PM

Frankly our population deserves the rate of death their stupidity demands.

A statement far too sweeping when the majority obey all the rules in the hope of getting the numbers down but the senseless minority are the ones so deserving of severe punishment (I won't go so far as to suggest death)

Quote from: dannyboy on October 30, 2020, 06:46:56 PM
@Newportnobby
I appreciate what you are saying Mick, but what happens if one particular area has lock down imposed because of the prevalence of the virus and an adjoining area, which has a very low prevalence of the virus, has no lock down, how do you police it?

@dannyboy
I can only go by local experience, David, but think it would be seldom the case one county has high virus numbers and an adjoining area low numbers. For whatever reason West Yorkshire and East Lancashire have appallingly high numbers whereas my area, although not good, is not as bad. We are all lumped in Tier 3 but, for some strange reason, Lancashire gyms remain open (for now)

dannyboy · October 30, 2020, 09:56:50 PM

County Leitrim, where I live, shares its border with Counties Sligo, Roscommon, Longford and Cavan, along with Northern Ireland. Leitrim has the lowest incidences of Covid-19, (0.38 per 100,000 population), whilst the other counties, apart from Cavan, all have an incidence rate which is greater than that of Leitrim. Approximately 25% of Leitrims border is with Cavan, which also borders Northern Ireland. Cavan has an incidence rate of 3.37.

. There are so many variables involved with how the virus works and moves amongst the population but one thing is certain, it knows no boundaries, (County or other

). Plus, another point in my favour, Leitrim is one of the least populated counties in Ireland, so, in theory, there is less chance of community transmission. One other point - the age group showing the greatest number of cases is 15 to 24 year olds.

. Sorry about all those figures, as I said earlier, I will shut up now.

Addit: I have my own theories Mick on why places like West Yorkshire, (my home county) and Lancashire have high incidence rates, but we won't go there ...

Snowwolflair · October 30, 2020, 09:59:58 PM

Quote from: dannyboy on October 30, 2020, 09:56:50 PM
County Leitrim, where I live, shares its border with Counties Sligo, Roscommon, Longford and Cavan, along with Northern Ireland. Leitrim has the lowest incidences of Covid-19, (0.38 per 100,000 population), whilst the other counties, apart from Cavan, all have an incidence rate which is greater than that of Leitrim. Approximately 25% of Leitrims border is with Cavan, which also borders Northern Ireland. Cavan has an incidence rate of 3.37. . There are so many variables involved with how the virus works and moves amongst the population but one thing is certain, it knows no boundaries, (County or other ). Plus, another point in my favour, Leitrim is one of the least populated counties in Ireland, so, in theory, there is less chance of community transmission. One other point - the age group showing the greatest number of cases is 15 to 24 year olds. . Sorry about all those figures, as I said earlier, I will shut up now.

To get that spread I would be looking for a man with a bicycle.

Newportnobby · October 30, 2020, 10:03:08 PM

Quote from: dannyboy on October 30, 2020, 09:56:50 PM
One other point - the age group showing the greatest number of cases is 15 to 24 year olds.

Problem is they're highly unlikely to die of it but highly likely to pass it on to someone who will.
Not that they care.

joe cassidy · October 30, 2020, 10:15:15 PM

The risk of a selective lockdown based on age or regional citeria is that the government will be blamed if it fails.

That is why the French gov has installed a nationwide lockdown for 4 weeks starting today.

Flange Squeal · October 30, 2020, 10:26:46 PM

The front page of tomorrow's Times news paper is suggesting a national lockdown could be announced by Boris on wednesday.

NinOz · October 30, 2020, 11:07:06 PM

Quote from: Newportnobby
Even though I'm slightly to the left of Genghis Khan I can't agree with that.

.... but the senseless minority are the ones so deserving of severe punishment (I won't go so far as to suggest death)

These two statements are inconsistent.

daffy · October 30, 2020, 11:13:35 PM

We NEED a national lockdown NOW. The virus spreads through human to human contact. Limit the contact, slow the virus.

C'est la guerre.

It's not just about economics. It's not just about livelihoods. It's about life itself.

A month or more of lockdown could slow the spread and give science a greater chance to combat this pestilence. We do not want to be in a position where, a short few weeks or months from now, we find ourselves thinking, or even saying what we woulda, shoulda, coulda done at the end of October. Rather like what many scientists are currently saying what we should have done weeks or months ago.

Of course we could do nothing new, keep faffing about and hope it all just goes away and just 'get back to normal'. Cos that's a great idea, isn't it. But then what we are experiencing today IS the new normal. We can't go back. Time - and the virus - doesn't work that way.

By tomorrow night over a million people in the UK will have been infected - and that's just the reported/recorded cases. Worldwide the figure will exceed FORTY FIVE MILLION, with around ONE MILLION TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS, and that's in just over eight months.

After a year? Two years? Will you or yours be amongst the afflicted or the dead?

Snowwolflair · October 30, 2020, 11:25:49 PM

Quote from: daffy on October 30, 2020, 11:13:35 PM
We NEED a national lockdown NOW. The virus spreads through human to human contact. Limit the contact, slow the virus.

C'est la guerre.

It's not just about economics. It's not just about livelihoods. It's about life itself.

A month or more of lockdown could slow the spread and give science a greater chance to combat this pestilence. We do not want to be in a position where, a short few weeks or months from now, we find ourselves thinking, or even saying what we woulda, shoulda, coulda done at the end of October. Rather like what many scientists are currently saying what we should have done weeks or months ago.

Of course we could do nothing new, keep faffing about and hope it all just goes away and just 'get back to normal'. Cos that's a great idea, isn't it. But then what we are experiencing today IS the new normal. We can't go back. Time - and the virus - doesn't work that way.

By tomorrow night over a million people in the UK will have been infected - and that's just the reported/recorded cases. Worldwide the figure will exceed FORTY FIVE MILLION, with around ONE MILLION TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS, and that's in just over eight months.

After a year? Two years? Will you or yours be amongst the afflicted or the dead?

I agree but he British public will largely ignore it so it will be useless, and we don't have enough police to enforce it.

We are back to my comments on compliance above. In France to go out of your front door even to walk your dog you must download a form, print it and fill it in. If you are out and you don't have it you can be arrested.