I've been thinking.. yes.. bad I know!
This Coronavirus has caused problems in the chinese factories and shipping lines are scaling back their sailings from chinese ports. Travel restrictions in China mean it is hard for the factories to get their goods to the ports.
So...
How is this affecting proposed delivery dates of new models? Will the stuff scheduled for production be put at the back of the queue or just continue but with delays?
I told you I'd been thinking!!
Cheers
Mark
It has been mentioned in various forum posts, but I think it's safe to assume that there will be delays in production, delivery, and everything else associated with trade.
I'm just praying that some of the bigger shows are not cancelled
MicroAce (one of the larger Japanese manufacturers) have publicly stated this will delay production, (homepage containing statement (http://www.microace-arii.co.jp/), linkable page with statement only (http://www.jp-ngauge.info/ngi/2020/02/micro-ace-eb56.html), both in Japanese, run through the automatic translator of your choice).
A few weeks back I posted that the Chinese factories invariably have staffing problems after their New Year. This is because many work a long distance from home and during the long holiday some if not many find work nearer to their home and family. Now the virus has significantly added to this, so production must surely be severely disrupted.
In the U.K. companies such as JCB reported problems with parts shortages of Chinese sourced parts. Their staff have had their hours reduced as a result. There will undoubtedly be more and more companies in a similar situation as time goes on.
Our model railways must be a minute part of Chinese production in the great scheme of things. As and when they break the back of this near Global virus, I imagine that the Chinese authorities will deem that much larger and profitable production will take priority. They will want to concentrate on the areas that bring in large financial gains for their economy that must be suffering at this time.
Just how I see it.
I'd just like to get some toilet rolls, that's how I see it ;D
I suggest that looking at the overall picture, the delay to a few railway models is somewhat insignificant.
Annoying as it may be to those waiting at this end, there must be far more important items that attract a higher priority in the grand scheme of things.
As for Model Railway Shows in the UK, I would suspect that we are likely to see cancellations either imposed by the government or by organisers who will be reluctant to take a risk on going ahead. And who can blame them.
Same applies to many events. I was up at Bristol for football yesterday and everyone was wondering if the rest of the season will be played behind closed doors.
Just my own thoughts.
Once this goes away, I wonder what will be next :sleep:
I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.
Like I said, I know those who should know about this sort of thing said it only lasts a week but then again it was those sort of experts who once said smoking and asbestos was safe so excuse me for not trusting their "Expert" opinions.
NGM
Let's hope that Ally Pally still goes ahead ,apparently all traders and exhibitors have been Emailed to confirm that they havnt been abroad or in contact with anyone connected with the Coronavirus .
But what about the thousands of visitors to the show ,I think people are panicking just a little bit to be honest .If you look at statistics the common flue kills more people every year than have died from this virus and probably more people are killed in road accidents as well .
So I hope to see a lot of my friends and customers on the B H Enterprises stand at Ally Pally .
Bob Tidbury
And Thankyou to everyone who wished me Happy Birthday yesterday .
Quote from: N_GaugeModeller on March 08, 2020, 08:57:15 AM
I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.
No chance at all. That's just scaremongering and the sort of thing which leads to morons panic buying. You're talking about a month+, for a very weak concentration of any virus to live on an inanimate surface.
Totally agree with Bob about the hysteria. Wash your hands. Don't cough into people's faces. If you don't want to get ill then avoid travelling through London on public transport.
Whilst a bit of a misleading application of statistics I note you're still significantly more likely to die by lightning strike than Covid-19 right now.
Quote from: N_GaugeModeller on March 08, 2020, 08:57:15 AMI still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker.
Hi there,
I don't think this is at all likely. Production has not been able to resume in China since the outbreak, so even the most recent models you are buying will have been manufactured and packed at least 8 weeks ago. There is no evidence at all that coronavirus can survive that long on a surface.
Back in mid-February Revolution Trains published a note explaining the impact of the virus on model train production, see here: https://www.revolutiontrains.com/news/ (https://www.revolutiontrains.com/news/)
Workers who live close to the factories in Southern China - predominantly CAD engineers, production managers and factory owners - are now returning to work, so development work is resuming, however the bulk of the assembly workforce has to travel from far-flung areas and this is taking significantly longer.
Now that new cases in China are falling, and while ongoing travel restrictions are in place in some locations, it is expected that these workers will start to return.
Cheers
Ben A.
Thanks for that straight reply, Ben.
:thumbsup:
OK time for some facts (ref WHO)
The virus is fragile outside the body - common with all viruses - If it dehydrates it dies, if it is exposed to a compound that breaks up oil it looses the ability to infect and dies as its outer coating is oily.
Absorbent surfaces kill it faster than hard or waterproof surfaces (i.e. wood, paper etc). Worst case survival on these surfaces is believed to be 24 hours.
Non absorbent surfaces rely on evaporation to kill it and as it is an oily compound this is believed to be up to 72 hours.
However,
In a closed moisture proof container evaporation may take longer but the virus would normally die anyway in the absence of a living cell to take over even in perfect conditions in twice this time (current working assumption).
So a cardboard box from China shipped by boat is not a problem. A UPS or DHL polythene bag with the contents wrapped in bubble wrap shipped in 3 days from anywhere could be a problem.
As I get a lot of these packages, my simple solution is disposable gloves and an atomiser filled with IPA. I spray the outer surfaces before unpacking and during if necessary.
NB my shipments from Shapeways are currently being dumped straight into a tank of Heptane :)
Also if you are really worried leave it in direct sunlight for a while or use a UV source to sterilise.
Quote from: njee20 on March 08, 2020, 09:48:35 AM
Quote from: N_GaugeModeller on March 08, 2020, 08:57:15 AM
I know those who should know about these things said it couldn't happen but I still suspect that it is possible for this virus to live on the surface for longer than they think and it's quite possible that the next parcel you get from China might contain infected droplets from an infected worker, so don't be too keen to get that new model from Bachmann/Farish/Hornby etc, it might end up being your last.
No chance at all. That's just scaremongering and the sort of thing which leads to morons panic buying. You're talking about a month+, for a very weak concentration of any virus to live on an inanimate surface.
Quite. Why do so many people posting on the internet think they know better than the medical researchers who are giving informed advice? The informed estimates seem to indicate a few days at the outside, but probably less.
It will no doubt lead to supply-chain issues, given the prevalence of the just-in-time model, and the fact that so much manufacturing is done in China. I'm already seeing it with computers. It's hardly the end of the world though if I can't get some computers for work, or some model trains are delayed..
There appears to be a global shortage of IPA too (not the beer), whether people are using it as a disinfectant or something. Maybe using it in an atomiser on all their post or something! My regular supplier have stopped even listing it, my order from 10 days ago never actually shipped, and it's 4-5 times more expensive than it was a month ago now. Stupid.
[mod]This topic is to discuss possible effects of the coronavirus situation on model railway production. Please refrain from general speculation on the nature of the coronavirus itself.
Toilet paper and other non-N-gauge-related issues can be discussed here (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?topic=48545.0).
[/mod]
A delay to model deliveries means I have more time to save to pay the balances on stuff that I've ordered from Revolution.
It may also be that, instead of being distracted by bright shiny things in boxes arriving in the post, I might actually have to go out to the shed and do some MODELLING!!
Especially as my employer has banned all employees world wide from public transport, be it plane, train, or ferry.
Regards,
John P
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 05:45:04 PM
Especially as my employer has banned all employees world wide from public transport, be it plane, train, or ferry.
How do they expect people to get to work if they don't drive, then?
They are talking about travelling on business, not to and from work
John P
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
They are talking about travelling on business, not to and from work
Sounds like pointless tokenism then, at least as far as trains are concerned (although I can see logic in not sending people to badly-affected countries on business)
As I am immuno-suppressed, and typically spend half my time on planes visiting customers. It seems to me to be a VERY good idea and not pointless tokenism.
Regards,
John P
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 06:01:04 PM
As I am immuno-suppressed, and typically spend half my time on planes visiting customers. It seems to me to be a VERY good idea and not pointless tokenism.
I wrote: Sounds like pointless tokenism then, at least as far as trains are concerned
Not sure where I mentioned planes being tokenism...
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 06:01:04 PM
As I am immuno-suppressed, and typically spend half my time on planes visiting customers. It seems to me to be a VERY good idea and not pointless tokenism.
Regards,
John P
I'm with you. My wife has a long term respiratory problem, putting her slap bang in the high risk category. People need to be more responsible for everyone's wellbeing not just their own.
Quote from: njee20 on March 08, 2020, 09:48:35 AM
Wash your hands. Don't cough into people's faces.
I wish people would do this all the time. For ever more.
It'd reduce the passing on of so many other infections.
Cheers,
Alan
Quote from: davidinyork on March 08, 2020, 06:04:48 PM
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 06:01:04 PM
As I am immuno-suppressed, and typically spend half my time on planes visiting customers. It seems to me to be a VERY good idea and not pointless tokenism.
I wrote: Sounds like pointless tokenism then, at least as far as trains are concerned
Not sure where I mentioned planes being tokenism...
Yes if the inference is that you mustn't travel on trains for business because you may get sick, But commuting by train every single day is still fine, that does feel a bit like tokenism...
Of course people need to make considerations for everyone else (it's why anti-vaxxers are so dangerous!), and the idea that we're having to tell people to wash their hands is truly laughable, but equally people in high risk groups can minimise their own risks even more effectively.
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 05:45:04 PM
Especially as my employer has banned all employees world wide from public transport, be it plane, train, or ferry.
Right, I wish I hadn't even mentioned this. :headbutt:
What I meant to say was, as my employer has banned all business travel, and as I do a lot of that, I'll be at home a lot more for the next month or so, so I can get more modelling done.
Thanks,
John P
John I hope you can get your job objectives modified to include a bit of modelling :)
Quote from: scruff on March 07, 2020, 10:48:32 PM
I've been thinking.. yes.. bad I know!
This Coronavirus has caused problems in the chinese factories and shipping lines are scaling back their sailings from chinese ports. Travel restrictions in China mean it is hard for the factories to get their goods to the ports.
So...
How is this affecting proposed delivery dates of new models? Will the stuff scheduled for production be put at the back of the queue or just continue but with delays?
I told you I'd been thinking!!
Cheers
Mark
The disruption to the global economy, the workforce and distribution logistics will be immense in scale, though obviously also dependent on the length of the crisis. Some factories, manufacturers may not even survive the economic impact.
Therefore there is a good chance productions schedules will get thrown out of the window and there will be a fair amount of starting over. As someone has already pointed out, manufacturers may turn to producing whatever gives the biggest bang for the buck in the first instance, and that certainly ain't going to be N-Gauge.
Despite all this I predict that within in 3-months of the all clear, the pages of the various forums will be full of threads of outrage from disgruntled modellers wailing that manufacturer A is three months late in failing to deliver model B to the schedule announced back in 2018 :P
Quote from: emjaybee on March 08, 2020, 06:15:05 PM
Quote from: jpendle on March 08, 2020, 06:01:04 PM
As I am immuno-suppressed, and typically spend half my time on planes visiting customers. It seems to me to be a VERY good idea and not pointless tokenism.
Regards,
John P
I'm with you. My wife has a long term respiratory problem, putting her slap bang in the high risk category. People need to be more responsible for everyone's wellbeing not just their own.
I had pleurisy when I was 34 and that left me with an issue that they now call tickly lung. I had it bad when we had the extension plastered.
We cancelled our holiday to Vietnam and Cambodia and got very little back. But I think we dodged a bullet.
The flight we were booked on was contaminated by a super spreader who had been to the Milan and Paris fashion shows.
The entire plane load is in quarantine in Vietnam right now.
Could have been us in the news for all the wrong reasons.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11127369/seven-brits-positive-vietnam-flight-super-spreader-fashion-shows/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11127369/seven-brits-positive-vietnam-flight-super-spreader-fashion-shows/)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/british-couple-contract-virus-on-flight-from-heathrow-to-vietnam (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/british-couple-contract-virus-on-flight-from-heathrow-to-vietnam)
So I'm not worried about when my models arrive. I'm just glad I didnt travel to Vietnam.
I'm posting this at an odd hour because I just found out about this story yesterday evening and can't sleep!
Bob
I'd say you most definitely dodged a bullet there, for sure.
We're off to Tasmania next week and are staying at the hotel in Hobart where the guy with the virus turned up for four shifts working in the restaurant!
Pro-tip: try to refrain from licking exposed surfaces.
In an alternative universe I was supposed to be in northern Italy around this time for work reasons, luckily I procrastinated the plan into oblivion well before people started panic-buying toiletries.
:veryangry: Well I AM IN ITALY and looks like Im saying goodbye to Ally Pally and the Reigate show.
Perhaps all will be better by TINGS.
Still I guess Ive got nothing else to do but work on the layout.
Jerry
I'm sure this nonsense will be over before too long, mate. :thumbsup:
This is the John Hopkins University real time data that is accepted to be the most reliable.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Interesting link.. I find the map somewhat distracting and somewhat annoying.
I hand drew a lot of maps during my academic years, and those bubble-balloon type maps generated from statistics blur the situation and basically do not impart any sort of useful information.
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.
however on a lighter note here is the latest advice on deep cleaning :D
https://imgur.com/gallery/xfs1T0D (https://imgur.com/gallery/xfs1T0D)
At least he found another use for bagpipes HA HA HA .
Bob Tidbury
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 10, 2020, 11:38:12 AM
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.
1. It's a very small number. In China it's 0.005%, Italy is 0.015% UK is 0.0005%
2. That doesn't tell you anything about the health service at all though, there are so many more factors than that. Population density will have a greater impact. That's a woeful misapplication of statistics.
Quote from: njee20 on March 10, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 10, 2020, 11:38:12 AM
The information that is missing is the "percentage of population actively infected" as this is the measure that each countries health resources can be measured against.
1. It's a very small number. In China it's 0.005%, Italy is 0.015% UK is 0.0005%
2. That doesn't tell you anything about the health service at all though, there are so many more factors than that. Population density will have a greater impact. That's a woeful misapplication of statistics.
Not on its own but Italy for instance has an intensive care bed percentage for the population by the same measure is 0.01% (as they at 33% beyond saturation) so they are in trouble already.
We have a similar ratio of intensive care beds and a similar but younger average population so when the UK infected figures (infected minus recovered and dead) exceeds something like 8000 we will be in big trouble as well. Last week we had 80% use of intensive care beds and the NHS is trying to increase the total number by 15%.
But that's not even just the infected group, that's the "occupying an intensive care bed" group, which is totally different. A small proportion of infected require hospital treatment, less than 10%. It's also still not related to the total population of the country or the total population who have died.
Lombardy, in Italy, apparently has about 500 intensive care beds, and 10m people, so 0.005% of the population. There is a shortage, as you say, but knowing that 0.015% of the national population are infected doesn't help you. They don't need three times the beds they have. Clearly the concentration of people with the virus in Lombardy is higher than the country as a whole.
You can derive no meaningful conclusions on the stress a country's healthcare is under from national figures, partially because the concentrations are so low and thus so targeted at present.
Quote from: njee20 on March 10, 2020, 04:28:01 PM
But that's not even just the infected group, that's the "occupying an intensive care bed" group, which is totally different. A small proportion of infected require hospital treatment, less than 10%. It's also still not related to the total population of the country or the total population who have died.
Lombardy, in Italy, apparently has about 500 intensive care beds, and 10m people, so 0.005% of the population. There is a shortage, as you say, but knowing that 0.015% of the national population are infected doesn't help you. They don't need three times the beds they have. Clearly the concentration of people with the virus in Lombardy is higher than the country as a whole.
You can derive no meaningful conclusions on the stress a country's healthcare is under from national figures, partially because the concentrations are so low and thus so targeted at present.
I will pass your thoughts on to the experts I am quoting. :)
If you could. If you're quoting verbatim then we're in a world of trouble, as they seem not to understand statistics, or even basic English.
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/88/3761-100320174017.jpeg) (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=88553)
Statistics discussions and disagreements aside - no matter how you interpret, juggle, skew, or otherwise look at statistics, a few statistics re the situation in Italy are clear:
In the last 24 hours 168 people have died in Italy as a result of the infection.
To date, 631 people in Italy have died as a result on the infection.
At present, 877 people in Italy are in a serious or critical condition as a result of the infection.
All else is noise.
The truth is IF you are concerned about YOUR own health condition and the effect this virus could have on YOU, YOU need to make what decisions YOU feel are necessary.
I will probably end up dead from it but....
I am not travelling on public transport, I never have any reason too.
I dont come into close personal contact with anyone other then Mrs EC and shes got a few manners to not be coughing or sneezing over me.
I dont meet members of the public or shake hands with every person I pass by. The last person I had face to face dealings with was last month.
I have plenty of anti bacterial soap, tissues and toilet roll. My weekly shop was Scan and Pack, I used my own carrier bags, packed my own shopping and paid using my card from my wallet, i bumped into no one, spoke to no one and definitely wasnt covered in any type of fluid from any human being.
We have been told that no one of good health will see any ill effects from this virus IF they catch it. Many hate the fact it's getting referred to as Normal Flu but no one bats an eyelid if 4!!!! Pensioners in the uk died from flu especially as they had other health issues.
The NATURAL world is SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST the problem with society is we all want to live forever. This will take a few off the face of the earth but that happens every year with other illnesses.
LOOK AFTER YOURSELF and MAKE YOU OWN EDUCATED DECISIONS about how you cope with the threat of this virus.
I think my next home will be a cave :confusedsign:
Quote from: Jerry Howlett on March 10, 2020, 07:27:08 AM
:veryangry: Well I AM IN ITALY and looks like Im saying goodbye to Ally Pally and the Reigate show.
Perhaps all will be better by TINGS.
Still I guess Ive got nothing else to do but work on the layout.
Jerry
Look on the bright side. Italy has almost twice as many hospital places per head of population than the UK, so you are probably a lot safer over there than over here when it hits us! (and China had more than twice as many as Italy before the started building insta-hospitals).
Fortunately I'm a computer programmer so staying away from other people and self isolating comes naturally 8)
Alan
Quote from: EtchedPixels on March 10, 2020, 11:57:16 PM
Fortunately I'm a computer programmer so staying away from other people and self isolating comes naturally 8)
Alan
Are you sure your self isolating? Or is it everyone else avoiding you cos you're a programmer? :D
John P
It's all in THE BEST POSSIBLE TASTE!
UK Virus ALERT.
The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross."
The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.
The virus has been re-categorised from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.
The Scots have raised their threat level from "P!$$£d Off" to "Let's Get the :censored:." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.
The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralysing the country's military capability.
Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to "Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides."
The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to "Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbour" and "Lose."
Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.
The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.
Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from "No worries" to "She'll be alright, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is cancelled." So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.
Brilliant! :D
Paddy
Can't be too bad here, Paul Hogan just bought out another Crocodile Dundee movie ;)
You're supposed to catch sneezes and coughs in tissues and throw 'em away. Understood.
Does anyone know if they've said anything about farts? ;)
Quote from: tutenkhamunsleeping on March 11, 2020, 09:22:37 AM
You're supposed to catch sneezes and coughs in tissues and throw 'em away. Understood.
Does anyone know if they've said anything about farts? ;)
That's Novo Virus not Corona virus..
vomiting from both ends explosively.. not pleasant...
:hellosign:
My own thoughts, I think Exmouth Craig has hit the nail on the head, superb humour & let's be honest it's 99 percent common sense to take care of yourself.
regards Derek.
Quote from: cornish yorkie on March 11, 2020, 10:51:15 AM
..... let's be honest it's 99 percent common sense to take care of yourself.
regards Derek.
Hmmmnn..... :hmmm: Human beings and common sense? :o
We can only hope.
Quote from: EtchedPixels on March 10, 2020, 11:57:16 PM
Fortunately I'm a computer programmer so staying away from other people and self isolating comes naturally 8)
Yep same here 8) My lot have asked us all to confirm that we can connect and work from home if necessary, other than that is business as usual.
Following @exmouthcraig (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=5099) 's excellent post, one Belgian was so slighted that he felt compelled to make his own unique (hopefully) contribution to the Coronavirus story:
Note - what follows is disgusting in every sense:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/passenger-licks-fingers-belgium-subway-coronavirus-mask-a4384401.html (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/passenger-licks-fingers-belgium-subway-coronavirus-mask-a4384401.html)
I trust the :censored: will be very harshly dealt with.
Italy release latest figures:
12,462 cases in total
+2,313 in last 24 hours (About 600 new cases can be ascribed to the previous day's delay in reporting)
827 deaths so far
+196 deaths in last 24 hours.
WHO declare a Pandemic in their latest briefing today.
On the subject of models......
This came in an email newsletter from Bahnorama Modelleisenbahnen in Bern, Switzerland today. I think that to some degree or other it probably reflects what many if not all retailers will be experiencing lately:
Quote
Availability
As mentioned above, our product availability is currently still very high. We also have a very large stock of excellent used material.
However, we already have the first manufacturers who can no longer deliver individual products or issue warnings.
We therefore recommend that you plan farsightedly and make upcoming purchases that you need for the further construction of your model railroad system.
In this context, we ask you to refrain from delivery date inquiries at the moment!
We can only query this to a certain degree and have already received reports of delays from various suppliers. This also applies to workshop orders.
We are certain to offer you the best possible service with these measures and wish you the best of health!
Patience will be a virtue over the coming months in so many ways.
It looks like we are heading for an extended lock down, so I spent this morning making sure I have enough models paint glue, etc. to keep me occupied and I can confirm I am probably OK for the next decade :D
Seriously, we have a lot of older forum members who are going to feel very isolated, with not going out and not socialising at clubs etc. so can I appeal to all members to keep talking regularly online even if topics drift a little. If this gets really bad we all may end up posting the contents of our food cupboards and asking for creative recopies :smiley-laughing:
@Tank (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=2) @Bealman (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=255) @Only Me (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=1328) @NGF Staff (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=1) @Newportnobby (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=264) @Ben A (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=94) @Railwaygun (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=941) @railsquid (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=3832)
Fully agree. :thumbsup:
This is the time for the Forum to shine with best support.
Yeah great news today, the official line was
Work from home if you can!!!
Great WHOOP WHOOP :bounce:
oh no I do that everyday and I cant ring the office and suggest that's what I'm doing so I dont have to turn in and can spend the day on the layout >:(
YOU KNOW YOUR HOME WAS MADE BY DEERE
:hellosign:
Anybody wanna drive my bus for a day or week.........?
regards Derek.
sorry mate, lost my PSV when I hadn't driven for the required number of months when I was on HGVs.
mind you, perhaps an artic flatbed would be a healthier option :bounce:
"oh no I do that everyday and I cant ring the office and suggest that's what I'm doing so I dont have to turn in and can spend the day on the layout >:("
won't SWMBO believe you >:D
:hellosign:
:laughabovepost: :laughabovepost:
regardfs Derek.
Hi Craig,
know you're getting on a bit,
perhaps I'd better get those Lancs in the post to you to give you something to do while you're locked down for the next 12 weeks :smiley-laughing:
Ha, @class37025 (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=311), not quite into the "At Risk" category just yet!!!!!
Oh yeah lock us down for 3 months, suits me, spuds are waiting to go in, barley contract sorted, lambs nearly done.
All lock down means to us is no holiday, whatever one of them is!!!!
In America they are done queuing for toilet rolls, now they are queuing for guns 8)
Here's a mathematical analysis which is the most informative analysis of what's really happening that I've seen. The author makes a compelling case for why social distancing is absolutely necessary. The alternative of sitting on our hands is not very pretty.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Here are a few tidbits (quotes) from the article to whet your appetite:
1. France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using the two methods above, you can have a range of cases: between 24,000 and 140,000.
Let me repeat that: the number of true cases in France is likely to be between one and two orders or magnitude higher than it is officially reported.
2. If you're still hesitating because nobody is showing symptoms, just realize 26% of contagions happen before there are symptoms.
3. Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China). Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
The only bright side that I can see for me is that I have enough paint, plaster, wire, glue, and kits to build to last me a prolonged quarantine.
Webbo
Excellent post @Webbo (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=profile;u=4229) :thumbsup:
This pandemic is changing the world and it is the duty and responsibility of everyone to protect themselves and all those who they would normally come into contact.
No-one, but no-one is immune to this pernicious virus, and as we are now learning the hard way, it is not just the old and infirm who are being affected. All age groups, healthy or not, can be at risk, and all members of society can transmit the virus to others, even if it may not affect them directly or they only show mild symptoms.
It is clear that this virus has only just begun to display its power. Please, please, please, do your utmost to keep the wolf at bay. Do not be one of those who may look back one day and say "I wish I'd done more. I wish they were still here."
For all our futures sake.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/)
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 16, 2020, 10:37:40 PM
In America they are done queuing for toilet rolls, now they are queuing for guns 8)
free gun with every loo roll?
Quote from: Railwaygun on March 17, 2020, 10:54:01 AM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 16, 2020, 10:37:40 PM
In America they are done queuing for toilet rolls, now they are queuing for guns 8)
free gun with every loo roll?
Free loo roll with every 100 rounds of ammo.
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 16, 2020, 10:37:40 PM
In America they are done queuing for toilet rolls, now they are queuing for guns 8)
We already have those, it's topping up on ammunition that's causing the lines.
could have done with a Browning 9mm this morning, :censored: ignorant :censored: at Tescos.
just because you can't get what you want, ie 3 tons of pasta and 2,000 toilet rolls, no need to be such an arse.
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
The media has done very well world wide to help this Pandemic, if you look into history, the H1N1 virus killed more, sickened more, came from Southern China, yet we didn't all rush out for rolls of bog paper back then.
As far as models go according to some news outlets the Chinese have been told they can go back to work to get their economy going again, there have supposedly been less cases reported but no vaccine given or approved yet.
Call it a conspiracy theory but China has managed to cripple the world and now they are the only ones making an economic recovery!!!!!
I hope the customs agents still let my models through that are coming from Hong Kong!!!!
And can we call it Covid-19, Coronavirus is the type of virus not the name of the actual virus (SARS and H1N1 are also a Coronavirus)
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
Yeah, but I can carry my HiPower in condition 1 and don't have the long DA pull of the Tactical Tupperware...
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
a 9mm by any other name is still a hole in the head :)
12 rounds in a mag, two mags = x12 double taps...
take one round from mag 2 and load in mag 1, count x6 doubles, drop mag, new mag in x6 more doubles, aisles empty :smiley-laughing:
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
a whole new meaning to the phrase 'recycling' :smiley-laughing:
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
take it my Sterling has also been replaced by a plastic kit :'(
Not been
Quote from: class37025 on March 17, 2020, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
take it my Sterling has also been replaced by a plastic kit :'(
Not been any of those for a while..
Flock has a mag of 17...
Stu in OMDM
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 02:47:41 PM
Not been Quote from: class37025 on March 17, 2020, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
take it my Sterling has also been replaced by a plastic kit :'(
Not been any of those for a while..
Flock has a mag of 17...
Stu in OMDM
I was told, many years ago, that if I'd used both 12 round mags, I was really in the :poop:
best option, see if I could run faster than my GSD :smiley-laughing:
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 02:47:41 PM
Not been Quote from: class37025 on March 17, 2020, 02:40:38 PM
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
take it my Sterling has also been replaced by a plastic kit :'(
Not been any of those for a while..
Flock has a mag of 17...
Stu in OMDM
my sterling had, iirc, 34 round mags, though accuracy was reduced by hairy beast jumping around on the end of the lead
better to release him, them brass the :censored: up
Quote from: StufromEGDL on March 17, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
Hi 37025,
We have Glocks now. No Brownings any more! :no:
Later
Stu in OMDM
Yes but there seems to be plenty of unnecessary browning going on...
Cheers
Ben A.
Quote from: Ben A on March 17, 2020, 03:47:25 PM
Yes but there seems to be plenty of unnecessary browning going on...
Cheers
Ben A.
That's why everyone needs toilet paper 8)
In New Zealand there is a Covid 19 rush to buy sex toys ???
They're not toys, they're MODELS! :smiley-laughing:
I think someone needs to have a chat with him...
:goggleeyes:
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/89/5604-170320213822.jpeg) (https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=89116)
Quote from: Snowwolflair on March 17, 2020, 08:32:42 PM
In New Zealand there is a Covid 19 rush to buy sex toys ???
Imminent battery shortage in NZ...
(https://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/gallery/89/264-170320215002-891131776.jpeg)
I just got an email from Hermes about their staff changing how they deliver to avoid contact with the addressee.
"A message from our CEO about COVID-19
Good Afternoon,
The interests of our customers, our people and our communities are at the centre of everything we do and this is particularly important during these challenging times.
With this in mind, we wanted to reach out and reassure you that we are putting in place a number of robust measures designed to make health and safety a top priority whilst still enabling people to send and receive parcels. We understand that deliveries to homes are not only convenient but could also prove to be a lifeline for many people and we take this responsibility extremely seriously.
So, we are making some changes to the way our couriers deliver parcels to offer 'contact-free delivery' right to everyone's doorsteps. These include:
- Asking customers to choose a safe place for deliveries. Anybody due to receive a parcel should visit the tracking section and choose 'divert' to select a safe place. This can also be done through our app, within the MyPlaces section.
- If a safe place hasn't been chosen but there is somewhere safe to deliver the parcel, then couriers will leave it there, even when there is someone in the property. A photo will be taken and this will be included in the delivery notification email.
- For parcels requiring a signature, our couriers can temporarily do this on behalf of the customer to avoid unnecessary contact via hand-held devices. This will only happen when the customer opens the door and gives their name for security reasons. The courier will stay at least two steps away.
- If there is no safe place available, please be assured that we will always attempt delivery 3 times.
Finally, I want to thank you for your co-operation, understanding and patience during these uncertain times. It is down to your continued support that our fantastic parcel people are able to keep deliveries moving across the country. I hope this update will give those of you sending and receiving parcels through our network just 'one less thing' to worry about. We will continue to publish updates on our website.
Stay safe and look out for those around you.
On behalf of everyone at Hermes,
Martijn De Lange
CEO, Hermes UK"
I have underlined the bits I found incredibly funny. Because they do that anyway!!! All this email does is legitimise bad practice that has become ingrained in Hermes (and some other couriers) as a quick and easy fix on a too tightly scheduled delivery round. Why dont they propose delivery-free delivery and be done with it. Your parcel can go anywhere and we will make up a signature like we always do.
I'm particularly upset with Hermes as I sent £500 of insured flyers to a conference in Italy last year. Their website claimed I could trust them to deliver in no more than 7 days. They delivered in 14 days, after the Conference. Despite paying insurance, I had no claim as they had delivered, and their insurance only covers loss. Their delivery period says it is guaranteed but it isn't. Their claims process is so convoluted I spent days just trying to talk to someone, and it was always the wrong department.
As a sole trader, that's my hard earned money and I could have simply set fire to my flyers and got some warmth from them. Come on Mr De Lange. Your response to Covid-19 is just endorsing your appalling existing practices.
There is no care or concern shown in your email. Just a method to ensure your contracts are watertight, as always.
Bob
Thanks for copying in Hermes' email.
I share your concerns Bob, and have experienced times when their 'delivery' has been slapdash.
I would add that the Royal Mail deliveries to us here in the wilds of Lincolnshire have been subject to similar changes. My postie tells me that they will no longer require a signature for any parcels, and will sign off on them themselves. They will not hand the parcel to a recipient even if they answer the door, but will place it on the ground at a distance. In other words, with absolute minimum human contact. I'm not certain what will happen if Im not at home (rather more likely I am these days of course).
Letters etc are still being posted through my letterbox, but I'm beginning to suspect deliveries may be less frequent in the near future as the virus tightens its grip,
I can understand what Hermes and RM are doing - and DHL, DPD et al are happy to not require me to use their touch-screen devices when they call - and it does make for some serious grey areas, and perhaps a licence to be less than fastidious in delivery duties.
Like everyone we have plenty of stuff delivered by courier and Royal Mail.
We are not remote, the nearest town is 4miles away and our private gate is off a major road linking the two towns.
It has taken me 6years to get Royal Mail to drop parcels over the gate, behind a fence, which is quite secure. It got to the point where I had to go to the PO and collect 2 mail bags FULL of parcels before they realised leaving was a good idea.
DPD are always happy to leave over the gate and scribble in their box, they always ring me and their website will always have a photo of the parcel behind the fence.
Amazon arent everyones favourite company but their couriers are bang on with tracking and delivery.
Our Hermes courier is very local to us and knows us very well, she has my phone number and will ALWAYS ring 10mins before she arrives to see if I can make it to the gate, I never normally can but she will always leave over the gate and scribble in the box.
I have NEVER had a parcel delivered in this way go missing, never had any reason to question or complain about any of them. As long as they have a phone number, only Parcel Force will not ring you as they dont carry work mobiles, and you can get onto any of their websites they will always photograph the parcel where it has been left.
We are quite anti social in our location and environment but I'd rather have it dropped over my gate with the courier signing the box then chasing it around Leicestershire for 2 weeks trying to find where it's been sent.
Other people's experiences with couriers is obviously different but all thumbs up from me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1849402/Video-Hermes-driver-caught-attempting-THROW-parcel-balcony.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1849402/Video-Hermes-driver-caught-attempting-THROW-parcel-balcony.html)
and we all know about the Yodel driver who threw a parcel onto someone's roof
I'm not sure I understand that video... unless it was eggs, so what? :confused2: :worried:
Quote from: Bealman on March 19, 2020, 09:53:23 AM
I'm not sure I understand that video... unless it was eggs, so what? :confused2: :worried:
So you'd like your £200 Beyer Garratt delivered like that?
Eek. Point grasped! :doh:
Just read my earlier post here this morning and realise it doesn't correctly illustrate my feelings on the matter.
I too have a good working relationship with our Hermes delivery person, and she is very efficient and has never let us down. Previous problems were at our former address.
Also, what Hermes, RM and others are doing is understandable, and, I hasten to add, fully supported by me. I think there is really no other choice in the matter if we are to protect ourselves, and protect others. My concerns are for after the virus has passed and deliverers may not swiftly return to proper procedures. And I am lucky, for if a parcel is left on my doorstep it is very, very unlikely it would be picked up by anyone other than my wife or me, such is the nature of where we live. In more densely populated areas I can see the issues, photographs or not.
Here in France I've had two deliveries in recent days, one from UPS and one from La Poste (the RM equivalent). UPS handed over the parcel and scanned it, so no interface other than handing it over. LaPoste delivered a package from Antics which needed to be signed for, and as I was not allowed to use the touch screen or pen on his telephone, he had to send me a photo of the label for me to return to confirm receipt. All very well, but our French phone is so old it won't receive photos, so after five minutes of chatting over the wall (probably just about at a safe distance!) he phoned me and I messaged him back with a message saying received OK. All very sensible, but both packets were handled by the delivery guys, who were not wearing gloves. Surely if they had the virus it would then be on the package....?
The strange thing is that we've had four things coming from abroad in the last week and all have got here really quickly, the opposite of what I'd have expected given the supposed rise in online shopping. Maybe no ones going out to post anything!
Well if you get a lock down all the sheep are outside ...
I am getting my packages handed to me but no signatures. Having said that, the UPS driver has known me for years and calls me by my first name and we are a small town and the local postal service knows a lot of the locals.................
My son has a lot of packages throughout the week so he has bought a SMART MAIL BOX this has a flap that the courier opens on the flap is a barcode which they can scan as proof of delivery or if they can't scan they can put the last three digits in .
But it appears that even though the packets are marked quite clearly
Smart Box to the left of front door
Followed by his name and the full address we still have couriers knock on the door or ring the bell .I showed one driver the huge box on the wall and pointed out the address that was clearly on the package ,all he said was ere you are and shoved it in my hand he didn't even ask for the required signature .
When will courier firms employ staff with common sense ,they must be able to read otherwise the parcel would t have got to the front door .
Bob Tidbury
We've had a Smart Parcel Box for about a year.
Unfortunately, NONE of the courier companies are equipped with the technology to utilise the unique bar code.
It took our regular postie about two months of leaving the post on THE TOP of it, because he couldn't get the door open, and me showing him the lift up lid before we got any benefit.
:smackedface:
It has been worth it, I'm making significantly less 40 minute round trips to collect parcels.
Royal Fail and ParcelFarce are STILL refusing to accept a secure box with a unique bar code as a suitable alternative to a signature.
::)