I have the following on pre order and have made some assumptions as to delivery dates as, at one stage, I thought they would all be here this year.
Definitely 2016
Farish Castle Sir Daniel Gooch
Farish 64xx pannier late crest
Farish Maroon Auto Trailer
Dapol class 33
2017????????
Dapol Battle of Britain 'Spitfire'
DJM Class 23 weathered
Revolution Trains Poppylino
Given I know of no announcements of future models of interest to me, and that any announcement these days seems to take 2,3 or more years to come to fruition, this suggests to me that my wallet will be taking a well deserved break for the entirety of 2018 as a minimum.
Although a "Good Thing", I don't believe I have been in this position for at least the last 5 years.
Is it the view manufacturers are still consolidating or have they maybe run out of ideas (hence Dapol asking for suggestions on their new social medium platform)?
I thought the revolution pendilino was due this year some time last I heard
Quote copied from the Pendolino thread:-
Quote from: Ben A on June 07, 2016, 04:07:07 PM
Although we are obviously nearing the end of the tunnel we can't say exactly when the models will arrive - assuming an even split between 9 and 11 car trains we are looking at manufacturing, painting, and assembling at least 10,000 separate cars and we have no idea how long this will take!
Given we are now at the end of July I'd say 2017 was a safer bet ;)
Paul
Quote from: newportnobby on July 30, 2016, 10:32:09 PM
Given I know of no announcements of future models of interest to me
...
Is it the view manufacturers are still consolidating or have they maybe run out of ideas (hence Dapol asking for suggestions on their new social medium platform)?
Is it possible the manufacturers have run out of viable ideas specific to NPN's needs?
So, about that Class 33 which is due June or July...
checks calendar impatiently...
The number of items I have on pre order has diminished over the past year but there are still some notable ones that are out standing, the Castle, 63xx mogul and BoB.
These will turn up when they turn up. My wallet is glad that recent announcements have contained nothing that I was interested in, but my heart would still have liked to have seen things that would have fitted my chosen location and era.
Quote from: railsquid on July 31, 2016, 02:25:53 AM
Is it possible the manufacturers have run out of viable ideas specific to NPN's needs?
Of course that is possible, although I do run transition era set in Oxfordshire so could run anything from the main 4 regions.
I just find it highly unusual to not have something far off to look forward to - not even any rolling stock (Lord knows when DJ Models weathered Mermaids will be available)
I don't believe in pre-orders
I can make that allocated money work better for me!
I started with quite a "war chest" for my layout, and it still has a substantial amount in it
Looks like the "interest" alone will pay for the Farish DBSO, when they eventually arrive
I can't believe that they have run out of ideas, more likely run out of confidence. Look at the great 00 models that could be shrunk to N gauge, there are some super early steam models on the way in 00 but almost nothing pre grouping in N gauge - just the Terriers from Dapol and one 4F and one N class from Farish. Even big 4 steam locos seem to be on the way out as stocks sell out and are not replaced.
John
I'm waiting for a Valanced A4 due this July! Looks like they've missed that one then, even though Hattons upped the price by about a fiver last week, and a J72 due sometime!
Quote from: newportnobby on July 30, 2016, 10:32:09 PM
I have the following on pre order and have made some assumptions as to delivery dates as, at one stage, I thought they would all be here this year.
Definitely 2016
Farish Castle Sir Daniel Gooch
Just goes to show how little I know as Farish have now confirmed the Castle won't be here until Feb 2017 - almost 4 years since it appeared in the 2013 catalogue. It also will be Sir Daniel Gooch instead of Totnes Castle as was in the catalogue.
Rapido's top man (Jason!) has postponed his holiday to head out to China to get the final sample of the Pendolino. Assuming that is all fine then production will begin almost immediately. I'd be very surprised if anyone had to wait until July next year for a Pendolino!
Development has generally taken at least 2 years (I know some have been quicker) though in the past it wasn't as obvious as things weren't announced in advance - with more players on the market all looking at a dwindling number of potential models it is hardly surprising that manufacturers want to stake a claim (the market is not big enough to support duplication of most models).
I think from our experience the frustrating thing is that those of us at this end do our bit as quickly as possible but then get delays in the factory e.g. any tooling changes or paint corrections etc don't happen immediately as other work has been started whilst waiting for approval. Having said which frustrating though it is waiting it is better to get it right than to rush things through for a self-imposed timescale.
Cheers, Mike
Hi Mike thanks for the update .So what would be your estimate of the delivery date for the Pendolinos if Jason approves of the the modification to the couplings .Will it be in time for Christmas or in time for my 70th Birthday in March ?
Bob
Quote from: Bob Tidbury on August 03, 2016, 10:26:33 PM
Hi Mike thanks for the update .So what would be your estimate of the delivery date for the Pendolinos if Jason approves of the the modification to the couplings .Will it be in time for Christmas or in time for my 70th Birthday in March ?
Bob
As long as its not by my 70th Bob. :-X
I very much doubt I'll be around for your 70th Snowwolflair ,but I hope to get my money's worth out of the Pendolino before I pop my clogs ,
if I go before it arrives will I get a refund Ha Ha Ha
Bob
Quote from: Bob Tidbury on August 03, 2016, 10:36:56 PM
I very much doubt I'll be around for your 70th Snowwolflair .
Bob
You will only be 83 young!
Quote from: red_death on August 03, 2016, 09:57:21 PM
Development has generally taken at least 2 years (I know some have been quicker) though in the past it wasn't as obvious as things weren't announced in advance - with more players on the market all looking at a dwindling number of potential models it is hardly surprising that manufacturers want to stake a claim (the market is not big enough to support duplication of most models).
I think from our experience the frustrating thing is that those of us at this end do our bit as quickly as possible but then get delays in the factory e.g. any tooling changes or paint corrections etc don't happen immediately as other work has been started whilst waiting for approval. Having said which frustrating though it is waiting it is better to get it right than to rush things through for a self-imposed timescale.
Cheers, Mike
But the big difference between Revolution Trains and the likes of Bachmann and Dapol is that Revolution Trains have kept us informed every step of the way. Long periods of silence only lead to frustration and annoyance, whereas knowing that production is slower than expected because the print is more complex than first anticipated, for instance, is informative and reassuring. Very important as far as I am concrned.
Thanks
Kirky
For a small company like ours that relies on people's trust I think communication is vital.
Having said which we are learning very quickly that putting timeframes on things only really sets you up to fail. You can only really be sure when something will arrive when it is in transit (or perhaps even landed in the UK and in your hands for distribution). So we will tell people very rough timescales and we will always publish what stage of the project we are at but I'm not going to guess when the Pendolino will arrive as the next sample is crucial - if it does everything it should then as I said we will start production immediately. It is a meaningless target (as it is more important that they are right) but it would be nice to get them here before end Jan 17 i.e. 2 years or so from when we properly started the research and design work!
Cheers, Mike
Thank you Mike for your explanations. Whether or not Dapol/Farish are small companies is a moot point but it also helps explains delays. I am grateful for the regular communication on the Pendo :thumbsup:
:thankyousign: Mike for keeping us informed on the progress,I was only joking when I said I Hope to get mine before I pop my clogs ,as you said yourself it's best to wait and get it right than do what seems to happen lately ,where we the customer seem to be doing the testing for the manufacturer and then they bring out the second batch with all the improvments that we have suggested .
In other words people who buy the first batch of a model are in effect paying for the development.
At least Revolution are testing and improving the Pendolinos BEFORE they go into production. One of the other manufactures actualy told me once that they only test new Locos on a large flat oval of track which is fine for new layouts to exhibition standard but what about people like me whose layout was built in 1980 with code 80 insulfrog points and one or two less than perfect sections of track.
We have seen that you do test on real layouts and post photos on here to prove it ,I have said to Ben your welcombe to come down one day and run the Pendolino for a day on my layout and if it runs round it for a day without problems then your on a winner .
THANKYOU TO YOU AND BEN FOR ALL THE WORK YOU PUT INTO REVOLUTION TRAINS IN YOUR OWN SPARE TIME.
We wait for the results and I'm positive it will be well worth it.
Quote from: newportnobby on July 30, 2016, 10:32:09 PM
2017????????
Dapol Battle of Britain 'Spitfire'
I am not convinced we will even see the Light Pacifics next year. Dapol mentioned on their Digest that they had been testing a new drive mechanism they wanted to used in the BoBs/WCs but they were disappointed with the results and have gone back to the drawing board. Looks like my Bulleid 3-car set will need to put up with 3MT haulage for a while longer. :(
As prices have risen and the economy become more wobbly, I don't really blame manufacturers for being cautious. They need to be able to sell at least 1000 units for a loco to be financially viable and more if they want to actually make a decent profit on it. Much of the low hanging fruit has been covered in the last 10 years since Dapol entered the market. Manufacturers are now eyeing less numerous classes more cautiously. Electrics and pre-grouping locos are possible but poor sales of the 4-CEPs and Desiros have put manufacturers off electrics (RevolutioN being the honourable exception ;)). Pre-grouping locos suffer from the risk of appealing to too small a group of modelers to be viable as a mass-produced product, especially in N gauge which does not sell in the volumes that 00 does.
Quote from: Karhedron on August 04, 2016, 11:07:40 AM
They need to be able to sell at least 1000 units for a loco to be financially viable.
Pre-grouping locos suffer from the risk of appealing to too small a group of modelers to be viable as a mass-produced product, especially in N gauge which does not sell in the volumes that 00 does.
Matt
I think you make some really valuable points. Dorsetmike collared me at the NGS AGM and asked when we would make some pre-grouping steam locos - apart from Ben and my admitted ignorance about such things - my reaction was which one? With the implied question behind it being which one will sell 1000 models (or fewer but the prices will rise considerably).
We all want what we are interested in but that doesn't transform it into a commercial prospect!
Cheers, Mike
The obvious one would be a City of Truro. Easy valve gear and much asked for.
Quote from: Snowwolflair on August 04, 2016, 01:14:06 PM
The obvious one would be a City of Truro. Easy valve gear and much asked for.
Here here!
Quote from: Snowwolflair on August 04, 2016, 01:14:06 PM
The obvious one would be a City of Truro. Easy valve gear and much asked for.
The "what next for Union Mills" thread also has City of Truro as an obvious one for them. Seeing as Revolution uses external manufacturers, it would seem to be an obvious team up opportunity? :)
Quote from: Zwilnik on August 04, 2016, 01:28:47 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on August 04, 2016, 01:14:06 PM
The obvious one would be a City of Truro. Easy valve gear and much asked for.
The "what next for Union Mills" thread also has City of Truro as an obvious one for them. Seeing as Revolution uses external manufacturers, it would seem to be an obvious team up opportunity? :)
I think outside frame is beyond Union Mills
Quote from: Snowwolflair on August 04, 2016, 01:30:26 PM
Quote from: Zwilnik on August 04, 2016, 01:28:47 PM
Quote from: Snowwolflair on August 04, 2016, 01:14:06 PM
The obvious one would be a City of Truro. Easy valve gear and much asked for.
The "what next for Union Mills" thread also has City of Truro as an obvious one for them. Seeing as Revolution uses external manufacturers, it would seem to be an obvious team up opportunity? :)
I think outside frame is beyond Union Mills
Ah, but is it beyond Union Mills and Revolution teamed up? (the other issue would be whether the co-operative effort would give enough detail for Revolution's customer base)
I had hoped that Farish would scale down the 00 City of Truro. The Ivatt 2MT showed that they can get a decent drive mechanism into a small model but the silence has been deafening. :(
Maybe the problem is that most modelers would only buy 1 whereas they might buy multiple Halls etc. That might make enough of a difference to explain why it was considered viable in 00 gauge but possible not in N gauge.
Perhaps there is an opportunity for RevolutioN to work with Farish on City?
Quote from: Karhedron on August 04, 2016, 11:07:40 AM
I am not convinced we will even see the Light Pacifics next year. Dapol mentioned on their Digest that they had been testing a new drive mechanism they wanted to used in the BoBs/WCs but they were disappointed with the results and have gone back to the drawing board. Looks like my Bulleid 3-car set will need to put up with 3MT haulage for a while longer. :(
I wonder if we will see Farish try to steal a march on the BoB/WC Light Pacifics?
Quote from: Kris on August 04, 2016, 02:34:12 PM
I wonder if we will see Farish try to steal a march on the BoB/WC Light Pacifics?
Good question. Given the delays that have already happened, my guess is that they would have announced something before now if they were actually considering it.
Despite the family resemblance, there is relatively little work from the MNs that could be reused. The light pacifics had different dimensions, even wheelbase. The driving wheels and maybe the leading bogie could be reused but probably not much else.
Hornby make the light Pacifics in 00 so there is little scope for sharing the R&D across scales. Given that Dapol have staked their claim to the class, my hunch is that Farish will look at other prototypes for SR locos rather than getting into unnecessary competition.
Firstly I am the first to acknowledge that we all have our wish lists.
I do wonder how much research is put into what models people would like. It may come down to what you say Matt, which locos are likely to sell more than one to each customer.
IIRC, TPO coaches and stowage vans came out top of a poll/s, yet there are no plans that I am aware of for anyone to produce them.
The recently announced car-flats from the NGS are a really good choice, and I am sure they will sell well as have the previous NGS exclusives. Not something I can utilise on an early 1950s layout, but others may well be salivating.
With 6,000 members I do wonder if it would be possible to have 2 or three RTR exclusive N.G.S. projects of different eras under development at the same time. Would this be feasible, or would the workload be too much for what are volunteers?
I ask this with the best of intentions. I'm thinking off the top of my head that if the lead in times are similar more members can be catered for and items sold within a given timeframe.
Maybe I am way off the mark here, but I'm sure those in the know will let me know...!
(apologies if this is posted in the wrong section)
It still never fails to amaze me Farish have never opted for a re tooled Stanier 8F as being one of the largest classes of steam locos on the system at the time, especially as the majority of those who voted in the 'era' poll on this forum stated they model the transition era (although there weren't many votes cast)
http://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?topic=29164.msg325634#msg325634 (http://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?topic=29164.msg325634#msg325634)
Quote from: trkilliman on August 04, 2016, 02:54:09 PM
I do wonder how much research is put into what models people would like.
IIRC, TPO coaches and stowage vans came out top of a poll/s, yet there are no plans that I am aware of for anyone to produce them.
With 6,000 members I do wonder if it would be possible to have 2 or three RTR exclusive N.G.S. projects of different eras under development at the same time. Would this be feasible, or would the workload be too much for what are volunteers?
A lot of thought is put into what models to produce!
Farish have already done a TPO. IIRC Bachmann are doing a stowage van in OO so it may only be a matter of patience for that.
Within reason it isn't the number of projects that the NGS could have underway (we often have at least 2 at different stages at once plus kits) but:
- you still need to have a convincing plan to sell the best part of 2000-3000 (for rolling stock)
- compelling ideas and enough information on the model
- a customer base able to fork out to buy the models at the time (otherwise the NGS ends up sitting on lots of stock and our Treasurer gets cross!).
The most important part of it all is coming up with ideas that will appeal to enough people....
Cheers, Mike
Quote from: red_death on August 04, 2016, 04:15:05 PM
The most important part of it all is coming up with ideas that will appeal to enough people....
Indeed, I don't envy you that challenge. After getting involved in the K41 research, I started scratching my head for ideas for the next project and found is surprisingly difficult. I had no trouble coming up with possibilities but I always seemed to get stuck on the "how many people will buy this" step. Brake vehicles seem a well-filled niche now. Pre-nationalisation Catering vehicles are very thin on the ground but not likely to sell so well as they tended to be shorter lived and you usually only had no more than 1 of each type per train.
A gap in the market does not necessarily mean there is a market in the gap. ;)
Quote from: Karhedron on August 04, 2016, 02:08:35 PM
I had hoped that Farish would scale down the 00 City of Truro.
Perhaps there is an opportunity for RevolutioN to work with Farish on City?
The spanner in the works for Bachmann / Farish doing City of Truro is that the 00 model was in cooperation with the National Railway Museum. There may be IP or commercial rights issues to overcome or a time period to expire before it can be done. As I understand it, Bachmann can release it with other identities in their regular 00 range but can not re-run as CoT for a number of years...
Quote from: trkilliman on August 04, 2016, 02:54:09 PM
Firstly I am the first to acknowledge that we all have our wish lists.
I do wonder how much research is put into what models people would like. It may come down to what you say Matt, which locos are likely to sell more than one to each customer.
I think it comes down to exactly that. Why tool up for something that 3-6,000 N gauge modelers will buy one of when you can pick something that people can buy in multiples? I don't know enough about City of Truro to know if it could be spun off into other models (I'd have thought so).
I suspect it will be a long wait for any GWR 4-4-0 locos as I think all engines of that format were withdrawn by the mid-1950s and none ever carried the later British Railways crest, which might limit the size of the market.
There are still a few obvious gaps in the market for UK outline steam engines. The two obvious ones to me are the ex-LMS 8F 2-8-0 and the GWR Large Prarie Tanks. I don't know enough about Southern or LNER to know what's missing there but I get the impression that Southern is a large and untapped potential market (or maybe Southern fans are just more noisy - only kidding, folks).
I'm sure the manufacturers will find ways to part us from our money. Whether that's new variants of existing tooling. Further refined versions of current releases. Or even new models that no-one's made before. It would be nice if there were also a way to shorten the lead time between announcement and delivery, but I wouldn't bank on that happening any time soon.
Still some Farish 8Fs on Ebay
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Farish-372-154-BR-Class-8F-48750-BR-Black-Early-Crest-/201621961610?hash=item2ef19afb8a:m:m_Uj4CcaTbHqqm0486zcvbA (http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Farish-372-154-BR-Class-8F-48750-BR-Black-Early-Crest-/201621961610?hash=item2ef19afb8a:m:m_Uj4CcaTbHqqm0486zcvbA)
I didn't realise they stopped making them, perhaps they are retooling?
Quote from: Dorsetmike on August 05, 2016, 02:12:56 PM
Still some Farish 8Fs on Ebay
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Farish-372-154-BR-Class-8F-48750-BR-Black-Early-Crest-/201621961610?hash=item2ef19afb8a:m:m_Uj4CcaTbHqqm0486zcvbA (http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Farish-372-154-BR-Class-8F-48750-BR-Black-Early-Crest-/201621961610?hash=item2ef19afb8a:m:m_Uj4CcaTbHqqm0486zcvbA)
I didn't realise they stopped making them, perhaps they are retooling?
There has never been a squeak out of Bachmann Farish about a retooled 8F despite me sending them the results of our wish list 3 years ago in which it featured well.
Just imagine an 8F with a level of detail to match the Fairburn or the Duchess with a motor that allows wonderful slow controlled running (although my 5 pole version is not bad) :drool: :drool: :drool:
I'm getting all unnecessary so had better stop :-[
Given that the WD isn't exactly Farish's best selling loco I would be surprised to see a retooled 8F to take sales from it, at least in the short term (though I may be wrong).
Colin at UM did say a few years ago that he keeps his business below the VAT threshold, so I'm not sure that collaboration with ANYBODY would fit in with his business model. I would also go with the view that outside cranks may be further than Colin would wish to go, but I could be wrong on that one also.
Just a couple of thoughts
Les
with nothing on pre-order in N that is likely turn up in the next twelve months......
Farish Castle:
Just had an email from Hattons about my pre-order. I'm sure lots of folk have had a similar message but in case you didn't:
Graham Farish 372-030 Class 4073 Castle 4-6-0 5044 'Earl of Dunraven' in GWR lined green £118.96
Our latest information from the supplier suggests this item will arrive with us between February 2017 & March 2017
Whilst we are hopeful this information is accurate, manufacturer lead times are frequently prone to be delayed.
Dave G
Quote from: daveg on August 08, 2016, 05:32:49 PM
Farish Castle:
Just had an email from Hattons about my pre-order. I'm sure lots of folk have had a similar message but in case you didn't:
Graham Farish 372-030 Class 4073 Castle 4-6-0 5044 'Earl of Dunraven' in GWR lined green £118.96
Our latest information from the supplier suggests this item will arrive with us between February 2017 & March 2017
Whilst we are hopeful this information is accurate, manufacturer lead times are frequently prone to be delayed.
Dave G
A bit more time to save up then...
:beers:
Who else thinks the price will have risen before then? :hmmm:
Quote from: newportnobby on August 08, 2016, 09:22:41 PM
Who else thinks the price will have risen before then? :hmmm:
Order placed March 2013 @ £102.
So that'll be me, then :doh:!
Dave G
Quote from: daveg on August 08, 2016, 09:38:29 PM
Quote from: newportnobby on August 08, 2016, 09:22:41 PM
Who else thinks the price will have risen before then? :hmmm:
Order placed March 2013 @ £102.
So that'll be me, then :doh:!
Dave G
When I placed my order 12.3.13 the price was £110.46 which rose 17.3.16 to £118.96 so they're bound to go up again :worried:
In the meantime Rails have now got the l/crest 64xx pannier in so I should see mine end of this week maybe. They also have the new 4MT tanks in but I haven't ordered one of those, being quite happy with my older one rather than spend another £102
Quote from: newportnobby on August 08, 2016, 09:22:41 PM
Who else thinks the price will have risen before then? :hmmm:
Price to rise sometime in January to fit in with the Bachmann new product release info. A good time to hide bad news.
Severely tempted but only briefly with those two, Mick. The pair would come out at around £180.
I've resisted so far. Trying to convince meself that with the 3 locos I still have on order, that'll be enough.
Farish Castle
Dapol/GM Class 73 Pullman
DJM Class 23 Baby Deltic
Dave G
Wot? No Dapol Bulleid light pacific, Dave?
As you were. The Rails mail states coming soon in the next few days :doh:
ShouldagonetoSpecsavers 8)
Quote from: Sprintex on July 31, 2016, 01:40:30 AM
Quote copied from the Pendolino thread:-
Quote from: Ben A on June 07, 2016, 04:07:07 PM
Although we are obviously nearing the end of the tunnel we can't say exactly when the models will arrive - assuming an even split between 9 and 11 car trains we are looking at manufacturing, painting, and assembling at least 10,000 separate cars and we have no idea how long this will take!
Given we are now at the end of July I'd say 2017 was a safer bet ;)
Paul
Latest update on the Pendolino:-
http://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?topic=23000.msg396885#msg396885 (http://www.ngaugeforum.co.uk/SMFN/index.php?topic=23000.msg396885#msg396885)
Paul
Quote from: newportnobby on August 08, 2016, 10:00:44 PM
As you were. The Rails mail states coming soon in the next few days :doh:
ShouldagonetoSpecsavers 8)
Have now had a mail to say it has been despatched to me :confused1: