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Poll

Would you buy a crowd-funded Class 116/117/118 DMU?

Yes, at least 1 Class 116
5 (5.1%)
Yes, at least 1 Class 117
15 (15.3%)
Yes, at least 1 Class 118
4 (4.1%)
Yes, at least 1 - it doesn't matter which of the three classes.
27 (27.6%)
Yes, at least 2 different classes
13 (13.3%)
Yes, at least one of each class
6 (6.1%)
No, I wouldn't want any of those.
28 (28.6%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Author Topic: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU  (Read 17522 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Karhedron

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2015, 08:29:21 am »
Bachmann seem to be a little haphazard over what goes through the shrinking ray. They announced some years ago that they would seek to harmonize their 00 and N gauge ranges but I think that was an idea rather than a solid ambition. Some things that I would have expected to see in N gauge such as the MLV, 2-EPB and City of Truro are nowhere to be seen. Other models such as the MN, Hawksworths and Castles are already done by Hornby in 00.

I would very much hope that we will see an N gauge 117 but until Bachmann make a firm announcement, all bets are off. I would suggest the best thing is to write/email Bachmann and say how much you would like an N gauge version. Their existing N gauge DMUs seem to be good sellers and have justified additional production runs. On that basis, an N gauge 117 might be possible.
Well, that's just not good enough. Some fount of all knowledge you are!  :no:  ;)

Offline Roy L S

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2015, 10:31:06 am »
Looking at the current list price for an 101 3 Car - 159.95 - I do wonder if DMUs will continue to sell as well as they have done up to now. If I recall correctly there was quite a price hike to DMUs generally (00 and N) when Bachmann announced their big price adjustments. My personal feeling is that Bachmann may shy away from tooling any further 3 car DMUs in N for the foreseeable this reason.

Indeed it is notable that nothing new appears to have been announced for N at the Bachmann Collectors Club awayday and if TINGS last year is any indicator we will see nothing new next weekend either.

Clearly Bachmann are now being very savvy re: commonality of parts, would we have seen an A1 without "Tornado" and then an A2 without the tender drive from the A1? (Ditto J39 following B1). Following this logic my personal suggestion to Bachmann was a BR Standard 78xxx which could reuse the pretty much identical Ivatt 2-6-0 chassis.

The issue is I think as far as all major manufacturers are concerned we have now hit a plateau as far as new British N products go and whereas there may still be demand there will also be perceived risk. This is where I see RevolutioN's contribution possibly continuing to support some growth in N where "mainstream" manufacturers would not. Using the crowdfunding principle risk can be evaluated up front before a single piece of costly research takes place.

Roy

Offline Woodenhead

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2015, 10:49:26 am »
We might have hit a plateau but it can't be the end for new N gauge models.

We've just had the Bogie B and the Hawksworth coaches with more to come.

I can see why the 105 DMU didn't get shrinked but I think the 117 with its livery options and use should see a reduction.

Of course if that leads into 116/8s in OO and a subsequent shrink into N is another thing altogether.

I'll admit I did come away from the N gauge society AGM feeling a little concerned about the future of N and very nearly caved in for OO again but I've decided to stick it out, accept we won't get everything and have begun building a new layout.

Offline Roy L S

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2015, 11:16:28 am »
We might have hit a plateau but it can't be the end for new N gauge models.

We've just had the Bogie B and the Hawksworth coaches with more to come.

I can see why the 105 DMU didn't get shrinked but I think the 117 with its livery options and use should see a reduction.

Of course if that leads into 116/8s in OO and a subsequent shrink into N is another thing altogether.

I'll admit I did come away from the N gauge society AGM feeling a little concerned about the future of N and very nearly caved in for OO again but I've decided to stick it out, accept we won't get everything and have begun building a new layout.

Hi Woodenhead

I wasn't meaning the brakes being slammed full on as regards future development is concerned more a continuation of the slow down as regards the pace of new products the like of which are currently witnessing.

For sure there are still some fine products emerging out of those already announced, but nothing like as many and completely new announcements are far fewer. That is partly logical, we still have a 64xx Pannier and Castle to appear as far as steam locos go, only the 64xx EP so far seen so the other clearly some way off. The J72 and Class 40 Diesel still clearly much earlier in development so a lot on the "to do" list for Bachmann and even more for Dapol.

I believe cost/price point will be a consideration for future models as will reusing common parts where it can be done (The LNER Group Standard tender drive has many potential locos it could "push" for example).

I agree that a 1st Generation suburban DMU is a clear gap in the N Market, the question is would a manufacturer take the risk that it is big enough such that they could sell enough of such 3 car DMUs at say 160 a pop to fill it and make a return on investment?

Regards

Roy

« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 11:19:38 am by Roy L S, Reason: Last para didn\'t make sense »

Offline red_death

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2015, 11:22:16 am »
I'm hopeful that Bachmann will see the sense in shrinking the 117.

I think that Roy raises an interesting point (if one we have discussed regularly) about pricing - I think that we have little choice but to accept the new norm of prive levels if we want to see investment in new tooling.  I doubt that we could get a 3 car unit produced significantly cheaper than Bachmann are quoting (certainly not on the sorts of runs we are looking at).

I think it is a challenge for the market/N gauge community to prove that a market exists and that people will buy at a level (numbers and price) which makes it worthwhile to produce new tooling.

Cheers, Mike



Offline Roy L S

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #50 on: September 06, 2015, 11:45:39 am »
I'm hopeful that Bachmann will see the sense in shrinking the 117.

I think that Roy raises an interesting point (if one we have discussed regularly) about pricing - I think that we have little choice but to accept the new norm of prive levels if we want to see investment in new tooling.  I doubt that we could get a 3 car unit produced significantly cheaper than Bachmann are quoting (certainly not on the sorts of runs we are looking at).

I think it is a challenge for the market/N gauge community to prove that a market exists and that people will buy at a level (numbers and price) which makes it worthwhile to produce new tooling.

Cheers, Mike

Hi Mike

I don't disagree as regards pricing, higher prices are here to stay. However it is also the case that demand is not totally inelastic and higher prices will undoubtedly impact volumes sold/projected to be sold so affecting production decisions. A product may not be projected by a manufacturer to sell 3000+ at 160 a go to justify return on investment but it may generate 1000-1500 pledges at that price making it viable as a crowd-funded project?

Regards

Roy

Offline Chris in Prague

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #51 on: September 06, 2015, 11:58:34 am »
China's current problems and the fall in the value of its currency may result in lower than previously expected production costs for mofels manufactured there. I still think a 3-car suburban DMU would be profitable in N Gauge.

Offline Ben A

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #52 on: September 06, 2015, 02:53:03 pm »
A product may not be projected by a manufacturer to sell 3000+ at 160 a go to justify return on investment but it may generate 1000-1500 pledges at that price making it viable as a crowd-funded project?

Regards

Roy

Hello Roy,

I'd say you've summed it up in a nutshell.

In N 1500 sales at 160 will cover the tooling costs and production of the models, and give the manufacturer a small profit, but would not include retailer mark-up.  For that to be included, at the same price point, you need the 3000+ production run.

In OO the depth of the market means that 3000 sales in, say, 2 years is a reasonably confident minimum expectation even for niche items. 

In N that isn't the case, so for those items where projected sales are lower than 3,000 we are trying to offer a different route to market by taking out the risk.

But an additional factor here is Bachmann's oft-stated policy of only dealing with businesses with an established retail premises.  This, they believe, protects the retail trade in what are testing times.  It is an added complication when considering where best to look for future projects.

cheers

Ben A.



Offline Woodenhead

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #53 on: September 06, 2015, 06:55:21 pm »
Interesting comments, perhaps this is why Hornby seem so keen on direct selling as they can reduce the number of units produced or improve their profit without impacting the price to the purchaser.

Bachmann have so far protected their retailers by resisting going direct but perhaps in N gauge with a smaller market then the future might have to be more direct sales focused to allow for the smaller runs.

Offline D1042 Western Princess

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #54 on: September 06, 2015, 07:46:19 pm »

In N 1500 sales at 160 will cover the tooling costs and production of the models, and give the manufacturer a small profit, but would not include retailer mark-up.  For that to be included, at the same price point, you need the 3000+ production run.

Ben A.

Not being an economist I realise others here might well tear this post to bits but if 3,000 sales at 160 each (480,000) are needed to make a profit wouldn't, say, 6,000 sales at 100 each (600,000), make a bigger profit overall? Also more people would be likely to purchase the lower priced model thereby ensuring the greater market. It is also a long established fact that the more you produce of any given item the cheaper it becomes to produce.
But as I say, I'm not an economist, just a pensioner who would happily pay 100 each for three or four 3 car WR DMUs but likely to say no to more than one at 160.
I can't think I'm alone here.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 07:49:58 pm by D1042 Western Princess »
If it's not a Diesel Hydraulic then it's not a real locomotive.

Offline red_death

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #55 on: September 06, 2015, 07:53:26 pm »
Sorry folks but the market is not that big! Or you have to be prepared or able to spread the tooling costs over a much longer period than is possible for many small companies.

Of course it really depends on the split between (fixed) tooling and unit production costs as to where the balance is.

The much more realistic scenario, particularly as we get ever further into niche or marginal products, is that you would price the units higher and sell to fewer people.

Cheers, Mike




Offline D1042 Western Princess

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #56 on: September 06, 2015, 07:59:10 pm »
Sorry folks but the market is not that big! Or you have to be prepared or able to spread the tooling costs over a much longer period than is possible for many small companies.

Of course it really depends on the split between (fixed) tooling and unit production costs as to where the balance is.

The much more realistic scenario, particularly as we get ever further into niche or marginal products, is that you would price the units higher and sell to fewer people.

Cheers, Mike

Just how many would they sell at, say 160 as opposed to 100 each? I'd certainly buy at least three at 100 (300) but only one at 160 (!60).
What we really need to know is just how big the 'market' is - over 4000 members here and most N gaugers are not signed up ....... it could be huge in reality, but we just don't know.
If it's not a Diesel Hydraulic then it's not a real locomotive.

Offline Sprintex

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #57 on: September 06, 2015, 08:00:24 pm »
How many of those 4,000 members want a particular model of DMU though? ;)


Paul

ScottyStitch

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #58 on: September 06, 2015, 08:02:32 pm »
Sorry folks but the market is not that big! Or you have to be prepared or able to spread the tooling costs over a much longer period than is possible for many small companies.

Of course it really depends on the split between (fixed) tooling and unit production costs as to where the balance is.

The much more realistic scenario, particularly as we get ever further into niche or marginal products, is that you would price the units higher and sell to fewer people.

Cheers, Mike

Just how many would they sell at, say 160 as opposed to 100 each? I'd certainly buy at least three at 100 (300) but only one at 160 (!60).
What we really need to know is just how big the 'market' is - over 4000 members here and most N gaugers are not signed up ....... it could be huge in reality, but we just don't know.

Slightly OT, but As a matter of interest, why wouldn't you buy two at 160 each (i.e. only 20 more than the 300 for 3) I'm just curious, I'm not being picky........

Offline Woodenhead

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Re: Suggestion for RevolutioN - Class 116/117/118 DMU
« Reply #59 on: September 06, 2015, 08:35:33 pm »
Agreed the logic of three at hundred or just one at 160 does seem odd.

But agree as prices rise the options to buy more than one of anything reduce markedly.

 

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